BELLWETHER PROJECT: UTTAR PRADESH ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 001274

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI ECON KISL KDEM KCRM IN
SUBJECT: BELLWETHER PROJECT: UTTAR PRADESH ELECTION
UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE POLITICAL OR ECONOMIC STABILITY

REF: A. NEW DELHI 000975


B. NEW DELHI 000973

C. NEW DELHI 007824

D. NEW DELHI 000976

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Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: The crucial state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) is
facing an election in April and May 2007 that could displace
the current Samajwadi Party (SP) government. Although the
political situation in UP is fluid and changing rapidly,
there was a consensus on a number of key points during a
mid-March visit. The UP political situation is complicated
by the fact that there are four contenders for power-- two
dominant regional parties (SP and BSP) and two aspiring
national parties (BJP and Congress). This situation is
further complicated by the almost total enmeshing of caste
politics, corruption, and criminality.


2. (C) Our interlocutors agreed that the likely outcome is a
"hung assembly" with no clear winner. In such a scenario, a
protracted period of "horse-trading" in which political
parties indulge in complex negotiations to construct a
majority would begin. Even if a ruling coalition is formed,
it is likely to be fractious, unstable, and short-lived.
Unfortunately for the people of UP, this instability will
continue to distract the state's politicians, killing any
chance that progress will be made on issues such as
strengthening law and order, meeting basic needs,growing the
economy, or expanding sorely needed infrastructure. End
Summary.

Taking The Temperature
--------------


3. (SBU) New Delhi's POL and ECON sections, along with the
Consulates, will continue to take the economic and political
temperature of key states over the next year as part of our
bellwether series. Such snapshots will give us a better
sense of how local trends affect national politics, and
ultimately, US foreign policy goals. Uttar Pradesh (UP),one
of the "bellwether" states, is facing a highly contentious
state election in April and May 2007. On March 6-9, Poloffs
and POL FSN traveled to eastern UP to the cities of Lucknow,
Allahabad, and Varanasi. Poloffs met with a cross-section of
political leaders, journalists, and academics. We hope these
reports will give Washington readers better insight into the
vast India outside Delhi's Ring Road and the economic,
security and social trends that will determine where India is
headed over the long run.

A Four Way Contest
--------------


4. (SBU) The UP political situation is complicated by the
fact that there are four contenders for power--two dominant
regional parties (SP and BSP) and two aspiring national
parties (BJP and Congress) that would like to return to power
in Lucknow. Because of the parliamentary system and the
large number of players, there are many possible combinations
or coalitions that can be constructed to form the government.

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5. (C) This situation is further complicated by the almost
total lack of principles and ideology in UP. Interlocutors
confirmed that the political slide in UP has gone so far that
development and poverty alleviation are simply not
considered. Instead, parties construct complicated caste,
religious and regional equations that they hope will provide
that sought-after majority on election day. In UP, politics
has become a matter of money, "muscle power", and powerful
personality cults, as it is common to use bribery and
intimidation to win elections. Criminal mafias are now so
deeply entrenched in UP as to be virtually indistinguishable
from political parties.

The BJP--Perhaps Overconfident
--------------


6. (C) In a March 6 meeting with Poloff, BJP President and
UP MLA from Allahabad Kesri Nath Tripathi exuded confidence,
asserting that the BJP would emerge from the election as UP's
largest party (with what they hope will be approximately 140
seats in a 403 seat assembly). Tripathi confirmed that a
recent string of BJP victories-the UP municipal elections
(reftel C),Uttarakhand state elections (reftel A),and
Punjab state elections (reftel B),as well as an expected
sweep in the upcoming Delhi municipal elections--are evidence
that the BJP is riding a wave of political popularity that
will become evident in UP. Tripathi also confirmed that his
party would take full advantage of the inflation issue while
conceding that Congress and BJP economic policies are almost
identical and that the BJP has no policy to control inflation.


7. (C) Although Tripathi was confident that the BJP tally of
MLAs would increase from the present 88 to around 140, he
refused to speculate as to where the BJP would pick up the
remaining 60 MLAs needed to form the government. He also
reiterated that the BJP would make "Islamization of policies"
(appeasement of Muslims) and the need to combat "terrorism"
and alleged infiltration of UP by radical Muslims the central
planks of its election campaign.

Congress-- Reeling But Realistic
--------------


8. (C) Congress interlocutors, stung by recent electoral
losses, were downbeat and more realistic than the BJP.
Poloff spoke with several of the behind-the-scenes "moneymen"
and "political fixers" and one MLA candidate. All agreed
that Congress had no chance of moving up from last place.
However, they were quietly confident that Congress would
increase its tally of MLAs from the current 15 to between 40
and 60. In addition, they confirmed that Congress was
finalizing the creation of a "Congress front" of "secular
parties" that they hope could reconfigure UP politics.


9. (SBU) The new front is to consist of Congress and the Jan
Morcha party of former Prime Minister VP Singh, the RLD of
powerful Jat leader Ajit Singh, and some 15 small parties,
including the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the CPI.
Congress interlocutors, as well as the UP head of the NCP,
were confident that this new configuration could win as many

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as 100 seats, and make the Congress a real player again in UP
politics.

A Fight to the Finish
--------------


10. (SBU) Wily and embattled SP Chief Minister Mulayam Singh
Yadav is in a battle for survival and is determined to hang
on whatever it takes. He cannot afford to lose this
election, as his opponents would move to destroy him and his
party as soon as they took the reins of power.


11. (C) All agreed that the ruling SP is in serious trouble,
will lose seats in the upcoming election and faces the likely
prospect of losing power. All agreed, however, CM Mulayam is
the state's craftiest politician and can never be counted
out. Interlocutors confirmed that the SP was using a bag of
"dirty tricks" to influence the election. These include:

-- Paying large sums in monthly payments to much of the
Congress state leadership to "throw the election" and prevent
Congress from mobilizing.

-- Paying large sums to individuals to run on BSP tickets--
with the provision that they will purposefully lose their
contests and allow SP candidates to win (individuals can
"purchase" BSP tickets by paying several million rupees
directly to BSP President Mayawati).

-- As it has in the past, SP is working with mafia groups to
incite communal riots in different locations around the
state. It will then step in to "restore order" and "protect"
Muslims from Hindu extremists, thereby winning the crucial
"Muslim" vote.

-- SP routinely tells its followers that the USG and Congress
are working together to unseat Mulayam's government in
Lucknow and prosecute a "war against Islam". Mulayam
purportedly takes great pride in depicting himself as the one
man who successfully "stands up" to Sonia Gandhi and the USG.


12. (C) Several interlocutors maintained Mulayam has
subverted the UP local administration by putting political
operatives and "SP goons" in charge. These officials are
purportedly expected to produce SP victories in their
districts on election day. However, Mulayam has suffered a
setback, as the election commissioner is taking a pro-active
role to endure fair and free elections and frustrate SP
plans. The Election Commission of India has replaced the
state police chief, for example, with a man known to be free
of SP influence, and plans to transfer at least 200 local
officials prior to the elections. The ECI has also broken
polling into seven tranches to try to ensure fairness.

BSP - No Longer Heir Apparent
--------------


13. (C) Just several weeks ago (reftel D) the BSP was
clearly identified as the party that would form the next
government in UP. Our contacts agreed that, for a number of
reasons, this has changed and a BSP victory is now much less

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likely.

-- BSP Party Chief Mayawati's greed and over-confidence led
her to "sell" BSP tickets to the highest bidder (who paid the
money directly to her). As a result, many BSP candidates are
not credible and cannot win.

-- The BJP resurgence has undercut Mayawati's strategy to
recruit the Brahmins into her party. Many are now expected
to remain with the BJP.

-- The growing popularity of the BJP will cut into the BSP
seat count and make the outcome less certain.


14. (C) Despite this, many interlocutors remained confident
that the BSP will still emerge as the state's largest party.
It may, however, have a more difficult time crafting a
post-election majority - as it must contend with the BJP.

Comment - Continued Instability and Poor Governance
-------------- --------------


15. (SBU) There was a consensus in UP that the complex
four-way electoral contest is not going to produce a stable
government in Lucknow. All agreed that there would be a
"hung assembly" as no clear winner will emerge. Instead, the
BSP, BJP, and SP could each emerge with approximately 100
seats, while a newly-constructed "Congress front" could bag
as many as 80 seats. In such a scenario, the election would
merely open up a protracted period of "horse-trading" in
which political parties indulge in complex negotiations to
construct a majority.

Two Likely Possibilities
--------------


16. (C) Most agreed that a BSP government is most likely to
come to power with the support of the Congress front.
Congress interlocutors and Congress allies confirmed that
such an arrangement was "very likely". This is the only way
that Congress can return to power in Lucknow in this
election-- as the BJP and SP are both implacable enemies of
Congress and are in the opposition in New Delhi. Cocktail
chatter in Delhi indicates Sonia Gandhi has assured Mayawati
of relief from investigations of the Taj Corridor scam if the
BSP joins Congress to govern UP.


17. (C) Surprisingly, there is growing talk in UP political
circles that the SP may go for broke by abandoning its Muslim
vote bank and forging a permanent alliance with the BJP to
retain power. This would be a major political shift in
Lucknow. Muslims would view the move as a betrayal and
abandon the SP. Mulayam, as a man of no principles, would be
willing to jettison his Muslim supporters to win a powerful
BJP ally. Such an arrangement would mirror developments in
Delhi, as the SP would be welcomed into the BJP/NDA alliance.
A growing SP/BJP nexus is apparently one of the worst-kept
secrets in UP, as it appeared to be common knowledge among

SIPDIS
the political cognoscenti. They pointed to alleged BJP/SP
collusion to incite recent communal riots and the SP
government's recent bankrolling of expensive RSS/VHP

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conclaves in Allahabad and Lucknow as evidence that the two
parties have become quite cozy and are planning to form the
next government if they get the chance.

Nasty, Brutish, and Short
--------------


18. (C) Despite all the Machiavellian political maneuvering
in UP, almost everyone agrees that the state's political
set-up is so shaky that no stable government will emerge.
There is growing speculation that the electoral outcome will
be such a badly "hung-up" assembly that no party will be able
to form a government within the 30-day period prescribed by
the Constitution. In that case, the President could
intervene, dismiss the UP government, and call for new
elections in six months. If so, these elections would merely
be a prelude.


19. (C) Even if some BSP/Congress or BJP/SP combination is
crafted to form a government, few expect it to last more than
one or two years. The pundits are already predicting that
there will be new elections before or at the same time as the
2009 parliamentary elections. No one expects political
stability to return to troubled UP. Instead, UP can expect
continued turmoil, poor governance, and a lack of development
for the immediate future. Pity its unfortunate citizens. End
Comment.


20. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
PYATT