BJP RE-ENERGIZED, LOOKING FORWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 001273

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR ECON KISL IN
SUBJECT: BJP RE-ENERGIZED, LOOKING FORWARD

REF: A. NEW DELHI 975

B. NEW DELHI 973

C. NEW DELHI 871

D. NEW DELHI 1010

E. NEW DELHI 1101

F. NEW DELHI 1016

G. 06 MUMBAI 1986

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Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


SUMMARY
--------------

1.(C) Summary: For the first time since its defeat in the
2004 national elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
appears re-energized. On February 27, the BJP and its allies
dealt a major blow to the Congress Party, beating them in two
of three State Assembly elections up for grabs, Punjab and
Uttarakhand. The issue that brought down the BJP in 2004 --
implementing growth and development that impacts all economic
sectors of society equitably-- is the same challenge facing
Congress today. The BJP is taking stock of the cause of its
recent gains, strategizing and targeting the upcoming state
elections in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and municipal elections in
Delhi. Looking ahead to 2009, if its National Democratic
Alliance (NDA) coalition government returns to power, the BJP
views L.K. Advani as the top contender for Prime Minister,
although the RSS and some in the BJP have pinned their hopes
on controversial Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.
During the Budget Session of Parliament which began on
February 23, the BJP is still capitalizing on opportunities
to poke at an already weakened Congress. Anti-incumbency is
as much a threat in Gujarat, whose voters go to the polls in
December, as anywhere else. End Summary

HISTORY BITES BACK
--------------


2. (U) In 2004, the BJP and its NDA coalition government lost
the national elections to the UPA government, led by the
Congress Party. Ironically, the BJP ran a campaign called,
"India Shining," to underline its government's achievements
in development. The opposition played with these words in
their campaigns to show that while development was growing in
urban areas, the villages, left behind, remained in
"darkness." Across the country, examples of politicians who
had promoted development, including Chief Minister of Andhra
Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu, who put Hyderabad on the map for
being a successful technology city, lost their elections.
The Congress Party ran a campaign that highlighted
development as being limited to urban areas, with rural areas
left behind, and the BJP out of sync with the common man.
This campaign launched the Congress Party back to its
position of prominence, leading the UPA government. The BJP
could only hold on to seven out of the 29 states in the Union
with the support of local allies.

BJP LOST IN THE WILDERNESS
--------------


3. (SBU) Since 2004, the BJP has been lost in the political
wilderness, fighting amongst themselves. The party was in
too much turmoil to be considered a viable option by voters
or a serious threat to Congress. But in 2007, the party

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appears to have pulled together, is strategizing with its
allies and attacking Congress in strong campaigns on issues
close to the heart of Indian voters, such as inflation,
development and growth. On a trip to Punjab in January 2007,
contacts told PolOff repeatedly how impressively the
Shiromani Akali Dal/BJP campaign used media and ran a
sophisticated campaign. To its credit, the BJP's campaign
managers have engineered outright wins in state elections in
Bihar, Punjab, and Uttarakhand, and in municipal elections in
Mumbai and UP. They also hope to do well in UP state
elections and Delhi municipal polls in April and May.

BJP NOT SURPRISED TO WIN
--------------


4. (C) On March 2, Poloff met with senior BJP grassroots
activist, Mr. Seshadri Chari, who remarked, "the BJP was not
surprised to win, just like the Congress was not surprised to
lose (the elections in Punjab and Uttarakhand)." The
positive results in the municipal elections in Uttar Pradesh
in November 2006 and Maharashtra in February 2007, revealed
the first signs of an upward trend for the BJP, Chari stated.
The BJP ran strong, smart campaigns in Uttarakhand and
Punjab, emphasizing Congress' failure --ironically-- to reach
rural areas with its development efforts. In Uttarakhand,
the BJP successfully attacked Congress on national security,
pointing to an attitude of leniency towards Mohamad Afzal,
who is sentenced to die for his involvement in the attack on
Parliament in December 2001. National security struck a
chord with the large number of ex-servicemen living in
Uttarakhand. Lack of development, inflation, and national
security are the primary messages the BJP used in Punjab and
Uttarakhand. Chari told us the BJP will continue to hammer
Congress on these issues.

THE BALANCING ACT
--------------


5. (C) On Feburary 28, Poloff met with BJP National
Secretary, Dharmendra Pradhan, who complained that "India

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cannot be only market driven." He criticized the UPA for
failing to balance the needs of the common person and the
growth of the economy, although he would not criticize
specific UPA policies and programs. (Note: This may be
because the BJP itself supported market driven policies
during its last tenure and initiated a number of the reform
and liberalization programs that the UPA is continuing. The
UPA could rightly label much of this criticism as
hypocritical. End Note.) Pradhan confirmed that the BJP
plans to blame the UPA for encouraging futures trading and
hoarding, which he insisted were the primary causes of the
current inflation. Pradhan expected that the inflation issue
will provide plenty of ammunition for the BJP to attack
Congress in the upcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh. It is
unlikely Congress will be able to convince many voters that
it will be able to bring inflation under control any time
soon, with proposed measures such as banning futures trading
in staple food items such as wheat and rice - a measure that
is somewhat esoteric to the voter.

"THE ROAD TO DELHI IS VIA LUCKNOW"
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6. (SBU) Stressing the importance of the upcoming UP
elections, on December 24, 2006, former Prime Minister Atal

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Bihari Vajpayee told the BJP National Council, "the road to
Delhi (in 2009) is via Lucknow." As such, the BJP appears
willing to do almost anything to win or show positive strides
in UP and its upcoming elections. On March 11, the BJP
announced a new UP state working alliance with the Janata Dal
(United) (JD(U)) -- already partners with the BJP in the NDA
government-- and Apna Dal, a regional party in UP. Apna Dal
is a caste-based party with strong ties in eastern UP. In
the UP elections in 2002, they demonstrated their power to
split the Hindu vote pool which is traditionally targeted by
the BJP -- resulting in losses for the BJP. Now that BSP
leader Mayawati has expressed that her party will target
Brahmins (the traditional stronghold for the BJP),the BJP
will need all the Hindu help it can get. Even though Apna
Dal ran a campaign that slammed the BJP in the previous
election, both parties understand the necessity of working
together. The BJP hopes this new alliance will serve to
consolidate and swing voters into its camp versus splitting
the vote bank. The BJP obtained the support of Apna Dal
through their NDA partner the JD (U),whose leader is of the
same caste Apna Dal represents, the Kurmis. (Note: More BJP
and UP analysis is forthcoming septel. End Note).

"ANTI-MINORITYISM" PLATFORM
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7. (C) Both Pradhan and Chari explained what they termed an
"anti-minorityism" strategy the BJP plans to use in the Uttar
Pradesh state assembly elections -- slated throughout the
month of April 2007. Chari talked about previous attempts to
win Muslim votes by proposing targeted empowerment schemes.
He did not think these schemes worked as a political tactic,
so, he said, the BJP will not cater to Muslims or pander to
minority voters. Chari stated that both the Samajwadi Party
(SP) and Congress will fight over the Muslim vote in UP.
However, he predicts Muslims in UP will side with SP's
Mulayam Singh Yadav, feeling that he has suffered as
Congress's target. Pradhan told us the BJP strategy will
focus on consolidating the Hindu vote in the state, a
normally thankless task since Hindus vote by caste.

BUDGET SESSION BEGINS
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8. (C) The Budget Session began in Parliament on February 23
with the BJP and other opposition parties chanting slogans
and disrupting business for days. Emboldened by electoral
gains (Reftel A and B),Congress' Quattrocchi Bofors scandal
(Reftel D),Congress' failed attempt to seek President's Rule
in Uttar Pradesh -consequently resulting in the SP
withdrawing support from the UPA government (Reftel C),and
the Left and other UPA coalition members gaining leverage
against the Congress Party (Reftel E and F),the BJP has
enough fodder to cause Congress grief for a while. Chari
characterized the proposed Congress budget as an intricate
coalition dance Congress is performing. Aside from
"semi-decent" health and education proposals, Chari
criticized the budget as not doing enough and being too
middle of the road. A chastened Congress will need to
maneuver this budget session with catlike grace and a keen
strategy to maintain its credibility with an increasingly
skeptical public. Congress is clearly scared, he mused.

WHO WILL LEAD THEM?
--------------

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9. (C) On the matter of who would be the Prime Minister if
the BJP returned to power in 2009, Chari emphatically stated,
"L.K. Advani." He continued to reflect, however, adding that
NDA coalition partners might demand Atal Bihari Vajpayee as a
condition of participating in the coalition. In this
instance Vajpayee could return as PM, although he will be 84
years old.


10. (C) However, on February 21, Arun Shourie of the BJP
National Council suggested to PolCouns that Gujarat Chief
Minister Narendra Modi might be tapped as Prime Minister if
the BJP took power in 2009. Others in the party, including a
BJP legislator from Rajasthan, Vishnu Modi, expressed
skepticism regarding Chief Minister Modi becoming the party
standard-bearer. Modi (no relation to CM Modi) noted the
anti-incumbency factor could pose a significant problem for
Chief Minister Modi and the BJP in the upcoming state
elections in Gujarat scheduled for December 2007. However,
Chief Minister Modi remains highly popular in Gujarat and
most observers in the state expect him to be reelected by a
large margin. Most also expect him to use an election
victory at the state level as a springboard into national
politics (reftel G).

COMMENT: REVIVAL? MAYBE
--------------


11. (C) There is no doubt that the BJP is reenergized given
recent events, including the recent gains in the Punjab and
Uttarakhand state elections; however, a revival of the BJP on
the national front continues to be an uncertain prospect.
Congress faced tough challenges in these state elections,
with the anti-incumbency issue plaguing its strongholds. The
BJP has also been offered a plate of Congress foibles,
resulting in the loss of SP support at the Center and a more
strident Left weakening the party. If the BJP is to return
to power, it must capitalize on this moment. Elections,
however, are won and lost on the same issues --balancing
growth and development with a piece of the pie for all. In
Indian politics, the anti-incumbency factor is particularly
salient, often resulting in a change of regime. While an
electoral win in Delhi municipal elections looks possible for
the BJP, state elections in UP do not look exceptionally
bright for either the BJP or Congress. Anti-incumbency could
also yield a surprise in Gujarat. If the BJP keeps winning
in the states, however, on its twin platform of onion prices
and "anti-minorityism," it may have hit upon the formula it
needs in 2009 to unseat the UPA at the Center.
PYATT