CHAD: FIGHTING CONTINUES BETWEEN ANT AND RFC

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000933

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF SD CD
SUBJECT: CHAD: FIGHTING CONTINUES BETWEEN ANT AND RFC

REF: NDJAMENA 920

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Lucy Tamlyn for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Fighting continues in the Biltine area
between the Chadian army (ANT) and the RFC rebel group. Cut
off from supply lines in the Sudan, the RFC may not be able
to survive a siege. On the other hand, coordinated action
between the RFC and the UFDD could pull the ANT away and
prolong the battle. Given the tenuous security situation, it
is surprising that President Deby has apparently decided to
attend the Lisbon EU/Africa Summit. End summary.


2. (C) The fighting in eastern Chad has not abated. On
December 3 and 4 President Deby's forces battled the RFC led
by Timan Erdimi, a fellow member of the Zaghawa inner circle,
and former Director of the President's Civil Cabinet. The
fighting is taking place in and around the Massif de Kapka -
a mountainous region north-east of Biltine. While casualties
do not appear to be as high as those incurred in the battles
against the UFDD in late November, the battle is primarily
Zaghawa on Zaghawa. Two weeks after the battles started,
over twenty members of the US-trained Pan-Sahel Initiative
(PSI) unit are dead. One PSI battalion has been in the east
since the onset of the fighting; the other PSI battalion
remains in N'Djamena. President Deby is still at the front
but his Minister of Plan informed the World Bank
Representative in N'Djamena that the President intended to
participate in the December 8-9 EU/Africa summit in Lisbon.
(Comment: this travel has not been officially divulged by the
government. End comment).


3. (SBU) Former Defense Minister Mahamat Nour is still
residing in the Libyan Embassy. It is believed that many of
Nour's FUC rebel group will head towards the front as a
consequence of Nour's change of situation, but large scale
defections or theft of vehicles has not been witnessed (at
least in N'Djamena). UFDD Rebel leader Mahamat Nouri has
called for an inclusive dialogue to include President Deby,
the political opposition and the armed opposition. The
opposition coalition CPDC has made the same call. President
Deby's Infrastructure Minister (and primary negotiator with
rebel groups),Adam Younousmi rejected the call for dialogue,
saying that all the agreements needed had already been signed.

Comment:


4. (C) Erdimi's RFC, cut off from supply lines in the
Sudan, may not be able to survive an ANT siege in the Kapka
mountains. On the other hand, coordinated action between the
RFC and the UFDD could pull the ANT away and prolong the
battle. It is not clear whether these groups will be able to
go back to Sudan for a breather; the International Red Cross
Representative (please protect) told CDA that the rebel
groups had indeed been told to move out of Darfur by the
Sudanese government.


5. (C) The round of fighting which started on November 26 is
proving to be the fiercest and longest bout seen in recent
years. It is also straining the Zaghawa clan social fabric.
The President canceled his recent trip to the United States
ostensibly because of the break out in fighting. If
confirmed, his decision to travel to Lisbon could be a risky
one given the security situation still prevailing.


6. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
TAMLYN