CHAD SCENESETTER FOR CODEL JACKSON LEE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 000689

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/C AND H - PLEASE PASS TO CODEL JACKSON LEE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OREP PREL PGOV PHUM PTER CD
SUBJECT: CHAD SCENESETTER FOR CODEL JACKSON LEE

REF: SECSTATE 118298


1. (U) U.S. Embassy N'Djamena warmly welcomes CODEL Jackson
Lee to Chad August 26-27, 2007. Chad is a landlocked,
impoverished nation situated in the geographical "heart" of
Africa. Violent regime change has been the rule since
independence in 1960. Chad's estimated 9.4 million people
are primarily farmers or herders; new oil revenues have yet
to trickle down to the village level, and infant mortality
and illiteracy rates are among the world's highest. Chad has
a longstanding tradition of practicing a moderate and
tolerant Islam and Chadians tend to be pro-American.


2. (U) United States interests in Chad have evolved
considerably over the last seven years. Highlights of the
new relationship include large scale U.S. humanitarian
support for the Darfur refugees in Chad, U.S./Chad
cooperation on counter-terrorism effrts and the presence of
a large U.S.-led oil conortium.


3. (SBU) Chroni regime instability affects all of those
interests. So far, President Deby has successfully warded
off challenges to his 16-year regime by arms and negotiation,
but encouraging a peaceful political transition in Chad and
supporting democratic institutions are significant challenges
for our diplomatic efforts. A more stable Chad would be a
better partner in addressing regional instability, including
the Darfur conflict, the chronically unstable Central Africa
Republic and terrorist threats from extremist ideologies.

The Political Setting
--------------


4. (SBU) Chad's human rights record remains poor and
government institutions lack the capacity and the will to
bring justice to average Chadians. President Idriss Deby
Itno oversaw a return to democracy after seizing power by
force in 1990, but subsequent presidential and legislative
elections were flawed and the Constitution was revised in
2005 to abolish Presidential term limits. The President was
re-elected for a third five-year term in May 2006 in an
election boycotted by the opposition. In 2005 Chad tied with
Bangladesh as the world's most corrupt country according to
the corruption watchdog organization, "Transparency
International." Civil society remains fragmented and too
weak to pose a counterbalance to government power.


5. (SBU) Despite challenges to his 16-year regime from
external attacks and internal political dissent, President
Deby - assisted by a windfall in oil income -- has been on a
winning streak. He trounced rebels (with the help of French
forces) who attacked N'Djamena in 2006. On August 13, after
eight months of negotiations, an agreement was reached
between opposition political parties and the ruling party on
electoral reform. But even as Deby signs peace agreements
with former rebel leaders and hopefully sets the stage for
credible legislative and presidential elections, new
challengers bent on toppling the regime may emerge, eager for
a share of Chad's new-found oil bounty. Although President
Deby has presided over Chad's most peaceful era since
independence, his legacy will be undermined if he is unable
to successfully open the political arena, and demonstrate
that a peaceful transfer of political power is possible in
Chad

CHAD AND DARFUR
--------------


6. (SBU) Chad is deeply implicated in the Darfur conflict,
not only because Darfurians claim ethnic loyalties with
groups in eastern Chad, but because Chad and Sudan's uneasy
relationship has manifested itself in support for rebel
groups bent on destabilizing the other. Chad's eastern region
currently hosts 12 refugee camps containing over 200,000
Sudanese victims of the Darfur conflict. The same region
hosts over 170,000 Chadian Internally Displaced Persons
(IDPs). The United States is the major donor through the UN
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and partner NGO's in
efforts to assist the refugees and IDPs. This
environmentally fragile region has been gravely impacted by

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the presence of refugees competing for water and firewood
with the local inhabitants. In 2006 and 2007, as Chadian
rebels made bolder inroads into Chad, and violent clashes
with the Chadian army become more frequent, eastern Chad
became a zone of peril for the UN and its partner NGOs. The
security vacuum led to opportunistic attacks on border towns
by armed militias (Chadian or Sudanese janjaweed) and Chadian
displacement surged as villagers fled their homes.


7. (U) The United States has welcomed President Deby's
recent consent to the stationing of UN gendarmes and
EU/French military forces in eastern Chad to protect
humanitarian workers, Darfur refugees and Chadian displaced
persons. Discussions are currently underway in Brussels and
New York to determine the modalities of such a force;
deployment is anticipated as early as mid-October 2007.

OIL AND DEVELOPMENT
--------------


8. (U) Chad's oil boom -- expected to last less than a
decade -- will severely test its absorptive capacity and
ability to manage and spend the resources so as to promote
sustainable economic growth and improve the Chadian standard
of living (currently ranked among the lowest in the world.)
Chad's first oil began pumping in 2003 and flowing down the
1070-kilometer pipeline to the Cameroonian coast. The
largest single U.S. private investment in Africa, the $6
billion project is managed by a consortium led by ExxonMobil.
In 2007 alone, Chad will earn over USD 1 billion in combined
profit taxes and royalties from the consortium.


9. (U) As part of the financing package arranged by the
World Bank and other lenders, Chad agreed to an innovative
arrangement for managing its oil revenues whereby the bulk of
royalties would be earmarked for social sectors such as
health and education. However, this pathbreaking experiment
in transparency foundered in 2005 when the President,
strapped for cash for security spending, changed the law
governing use of oil revenues (provoking a rupture with the
World Bank which took over five months to resolve.) A new
agreement recommits the Government to funding social sectors,
but allows greater spending on security.

FIGHTING TERRORISM
--------------


10. (U) In March 2004, the Chadian army engaged in an
intense battle with members of the Algerian terrorist group
GSPC, demonstrating the extent to which Chad's vast and
porous borders leave it open to infiltration by terrorist
elements. The cooperation of Chad,s security services and
army on counterterrorism issues has been excellent, and
President Deby welcomes additional U.S. counterterrorism
assistance provided under the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism
Partnership (TSCTP). Over the last three years, U.S. forces
have trained and equipped two Chadian units and these troops
have learned to respond to internal threats from terrorism
and banditry. Chad participates in U.S. military training
programs, including the Flintlock exercise.


11. (SBU) Post also works to counter terrorist threats by
implementing a program of Muslim outreach and providing
development assistance to counter the conditions which can
foster extremism. For the most part, Chadian Muslims are
moderate and Muslim leadership in Chad is supportive of U.S.
programs throughout the country. Muslim leaders also work
closely with the government to rein in radical Islamic
elements.

THE U.S. PRESENCE IN CHAD
--------------


12. (SBU) The United States Embassy in Chad has approximately
30 direct hire-Americans. The American community in Chad -
never large - was reduced significantly following the
drawdown of personnel from the UN, international NGO's and
the oil consortium after the April 2006 attacks on N'djamena
by Chadian rebels. The United States closed its USAID
Mission in Chad over ten years ago. A modest amount of U.S.

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assistance is managed directly by the Embassy and supports
grass-roots efforts to improve education, provide access to
water, and promote human rights. As a result of unrest, the
Peace Corps program has been closed and suspended
indefinitely. Americans are not targets in the struggle
between President Deby and rebel contenders, but the danger
of widespread civil disorder is very real.


13. Minimized Considered.
TAMLYN