POLITICAL ACCORD REACHED WITH CHADIAN OPPOSITION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000675

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM CD
SUBJECT: POLITICAL ACCORD REACHED WITH CHADIAN OPPOSITION

REF: A. NDJAMENA 594

B. NDJAMENA 557


1. (SBU) Summary: After eight months of negotiation under
the aegis of the European Union (EU) and the UN, Chad's
ruling party (MPS) signed an agreement August 13 with the
opposition coalition (CPDC) on reform of Chad's electoral
process. The signing took place in the presence of President
Idriss Deby Itno. It is not clear what enabled the political
opposition to overcome earlier obstacles (reftels) but we
understand that a new cabinet (with a new Prime Minister)
will be named before the end of August. Key elements of the
agreement include electoral commission reform and agreement
on both a general and electoral census. A follow-up
committee will include EU and UN observers. Successful
implementation is not a foregone conclusion, but the
agreement reached between the ruling party and the opposition
coalition is a welcome step forward in efforts to bring
integrity to Chad's democratic institutions and to restore
the political consensus that was so badly damaged by the
President's decision in 2005 to hold a referendum on
eliminating Presidential term limits. End Summary.

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The Agreement
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2. (U) President Deby presided over the August 13 signing of
a political agreement between the ruling MPS party and the
opposition coalition CPDC. In a carefully choreographed
signing ceremony attended by all senior members of the
government and the diplomatic corps, former Prime Minister
Jean Alingue, speaking on behalf of the CPDC, highlighted the
"exclusively Chadian" nature of the agreement. While
acknowledging the catalytic role of the EU and the UN, he
underscored that the discussions had been "Chadian on
Chadian," with participants committed to the restoration of
peace in Chad. The seventeen of the more significant
opposition political parties that had participated in the
negotiations signed the document; other political parties
were invited to "initial" only. The lone dissenter, FAR
Deputy Ngarlejy Yorongar, withdrew from the discussions
months earlier, accusing CPDC members of seeking personal
promotion and settling for window-dressing reform.


3. (U) A follow-up committee will be established with
participation of the political parties. The EU, the UN, the
African Union, and the Organization of Francophonie will
observe. Alingue invited other political parties inside and
outside of Chad to sign the agreement, and called on the
armed opposition to do so as well. He invited the
international community to support the agreement "morally and
financially" and ended with the exhortation that members
wanted to put an end to "transition by violence."


4. (U) The agreement contains the following elements: reform
of the composition of the National Electoral Commission
(french acronym CENI) with guarantees of the Commission's
full independence and equal representation from the MPS and
opposition parties; agreement on an electoral census (to be
preceded by a full national census),agreement on nomad
voting and overseas voting, agreement to postpone legislative
elections until late 2009 (with current Deputies extended
another two years) and agreement on the actual election tally
document. A general and electoral census will be conducted.
The general census will collect &updated and reliable data
on Chad,s population8 and will determine the number of
representatives in different electoral districts. (Note: The
last census was in 1993, and today no one knows the total
population or how much it has changed from region to region
or district to district. End note) The electoral census
will consist of biometric data and will be established at
every local precinct. The agreement did not indicate a
timeframe or cost for the general or electoral census.


5. (U) Of considerable interest to the opposition parties
was the government's acknowledgment of responsibility for
creating an environment hospitable to credible elections. To
that end the agreement affirms that the military forces,
local authorities and traditional leaders will maintain the

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strictest neutrality and the government agrees that the
national territory would be "demilitarized" and
"depoliticized." The government also committed to "negotiate
a social pact" with unions in order to achieve a "durable
social peace."


6. (SBU) It is understood that the President - who is
currently out of the country -- will soon announce a new
Cabinet with opposition participation and a new Prime
Minister. It is not clear whether the new Prime Minister
will be from the opposition, although names bruited to
replace current Prime Minister Nouradine Delwa Kassire
Koumakoye include that of Jean Alingue and Youssouf Saleh
Abbas who returned from the rebellion one year ago. In
conversation with the government negotiator, Secretary of
State for Decentralization Djasnabaille, the latter informed
the Charge that some new Ministerial level positions might
have to be created in order to accommodate the inflow of
opposition leaders. (Comment: with each new government over
the past two years the number of ministerial appointments
have swelled. There are currently forty-one positions. End
comment.). He also said that some MPS leaders would also be
obliged to step down "to make sacrifices for their country."

-------------- --
Summer Break? Negotiations suspended in Tripoli
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7. (SBU) Charge discussed the implications of the political
agreement on the armed opposition with several contacts.
Almost all interlocutors believe that the armed opposition
was losing steam. Some contacts believed that Arab leader
Hassan Saleh al-Djinedi was negotiating his imminent return
to the government fold. The only rebel leaders whose return
was deemed improbable were the Erdimi brothers. (Their fate
might be rather to spend more years in exile - defanged - but
unable to return without losing considerable face.) Some
held out the hope that the armed opposition would reach
agreement at the same time as the political opposition,
allowing for the formation of a new government drawn from all
voices of the opposition. However, this did not pan out, and
it looks as if the political opposition has stolen a march on
the armed opposition. Conflicting information has been heard
on whether the talks in Tripoli will resume or not.

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Comment
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8. (SBU) Comment: We do not know exactly what enabled the
CPDC to reach consensus given the divergent views among
members on how best to ensure implementation. It may be
simply that the MPS conceded on most of the CPDC's key
points. In addition, the combination of a Comite de Suivi
(follow-up Committee) plus a new government line-up with
opposition participation gives them two mechanisms through
which to oversee implementation.


9. (SBU) Credible elections with full opposition
participation in 2009 is still not a foregone conclusion, and
the agreement -- for all the fanfare -- may still founder.
Nonetheless, it is a welcome step forward in efforts to bring
independence and integrity to Chad's democratic institutions
and to restore the political consensus that was so badly
damaged by the decision in 2005 to hold a referendum on
eliminating Presidential term limits. It also reflects well
on the EU's ability to mobilize funding and expertise at the
right moment and much credit goes to them for facilitating
the agreement. End comment.


10. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
TAMLYN