Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NDJAMENA637
2007-08-03 12:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ndjamena
Cable title:  

SCENESTTER FOR GENERAL WARD

Tags:  PREL PGOV CD 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000637 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR GENERAL WARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV CD
SUBJECT: SCENESTTER FOR GENERAL WARD

Classified By: Charge d'affaires Lucy Tamlyn for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000637

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR GENERAL WARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV CD
SUBJECT: SCENESTTER FOR GENERAL WARD

Classified By: Charge d'affaires Lucy Tamlyn for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) General Ward: Your first visit to Chad will
highlight for President Idriss Deby Itno the importance the
United States attaches to the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism
Partnership (TSCTP) and U.S. appreciation for Chad's support
on counter-terrorism issues. We anticipate that the
President will raise Chad's request for the purchase of
C-130's and stress Chad's desire to see the Darfur conflict
resolved. In our ongoing dialogue with the Government of
Chad we have encouraged Chad to accept early deployment of an
international force to protect Sudanese refugees, displaced
Chadian and humanitarian workers in eastern Chad. We have
also encouraged the President to create an inclusive
political environment which allows for credible elections and
a peaceful political transition.

CHAD OVERVIEW
--------------


2. (C) Chad is a landlocked, impoverished nation situated in
the geographical "heart" of Africa. Violent regime change
has been the rule since independence in 1960. Chad's
estimated 9.4 million people are primarily farmers or
herders; new oil revenues have yet to trickle down to the
village level, and infant mortality and illiteracy rates are
among the world's highest. Chad has a longstanding tradition
of practicing a moderate and tolerant Islam and Chadians tend
to be pro-American.


3. (C) United States interests in Chad have evolved
considerably over the last seven years. Highlights of the
new relationship include large scale U.S. humanitarian
support for the Darfur refugees in Chad, U.S./Chad
cooperation on counter-terrorism efforts and the presence of
a large U.S.-led oil consortium.


4. (C) Chronic regime instability affects all of those
interests. So far, President Deby has successfully warded
off challenges to his 16-year regime by arms and negotiation,
but encouraging a peaceful political transition in Chad and
supporting democratic institutions are significant challenges
for our diplomatic efforts. A more stable Chad would be a
better partner in addressing regional instability, including
the Darfur conflict, the chronically unstable Central Africa

Republic and terrorist threats from extremist ideologies.

President Deby
--------------


5. (C) President Deby has been on a winning streak over the
last two years. He trounced rebels (with the help of French
forces) who attacked N'Djamena in 2006. He faced down the
World Bank in a conflict over use of oil revenues and won.
President Deby's oil income has given him a sizable advantage
in weaponry and the ability to buy off threats. In early
2007, rebel leader Mahamat Nour made peace with Deby and is
now serving as Chad's Minister of Defense. Under the
auspices of Libyan President Quaddafi, Deby is currently in
talks with other rebel groups. But the price of his modus
operandi is high. The public enrichment of his Zaghawa clan
is a source of division, both from outsiders jousting for a
share of the spoils, and insiders scheming to maintain the
family's place at the public trough. Although President Deby
has presided over Chad's most peaceful era since
independence, his legacy risks being undermined by his
reluctance to move toward opening the political arena, and
demonstrating that a peaceful transition of political power
is possible in Chad

AN INTERNATIONAL FORCE IN EASTERN CHAD
--------------


6. (SBU) Chad's eastern region hosts 12 refugee camps
containing over 200,000 Sudanese refugees and over 170,000
Chadian IDPs. This environmentally fragile region has been
negatively impacted by the presence of refugees competing for
water and firewood with the local inhabitants. In 2006 and
2007, as Chadian rebels made bolder inroads into Chad, and
violent clashes with the Chadian army become more frequent,
eastern Chad became a zone of peril for the UN and its
partner NGOs. The security vacuum led to opportunistic
attacks on border towns by armed militias (Chadian or
Sudanese janjaweed) and Chadian displacement surged as
villagers fled their homes.


7. (C) The United States has welcomed President Deby's
recent consent to the stationing of UN gendarmes and
EU/French military forces in eastern Chad to protect
humanitarian workers, Darfur refugees and Chadian displaced
persons. This force might deploy as early as mid-October

2007. We know that he is concerned that a UN follow-on force
would be unpalatable to neighbors Sudan and Libya, despite
their more forthcoming attitude to the UN "Hybrid" force in
Darfur. He has also argued that an armed gendarme force is
sufficient to protect humanitarian workers, refugees and IDPs
in eastern Chad and insists that Chad will be responsible for
its border.

THE SUDAN FACTOR
--------------


8. (C) Chad and Sudan have broken up and made up repeatedly
over the last two years. The 2006 Tripoli agreement, brokered
by Libyan President Qaddafi signaled a renewal of relations
and an agreement to cease supporting rebel movements bent on
destabilizing or overthrowing the other. After a year of
half-hearted efforts, it appears that Chad and Sudan are more
serious about implementing the agreement, particularly now
that Saudi Arabia has stepped in as a facilitator. Chad
considers itself the "first victim" of the Darfur conflict,
but its own record is not clean in terms of meddling in
Darfur politics.
Chad's leadership professes strong support for current
UN/AU-led initiatives to bring the Darfur Peace Agreement
non-signatories back to the negotiating table and we have
seen signs that Chadian support for Darfur rebels may be
waning.

OIL AND DEVELOPMENT
--------------


9. (U) Chad's first oil began pumping in 2003 and flowing
down the 1070-kilometer pipeline to the Cameroonian coast.
The largest single U.S. private investment in Africa, the $6
billion project is managed by a consortium led by ExxonMobil.
In 2007 alone, Chad will earn over USD 1 billion in combined
profit taxes and royalties from the consortium. The pipeline
is now handling up to 145,000 barrels of oil per day and new
oil fields are being brought on line.


10. (SBU) Most Chadians earn a living through agriculture or
livestock. Once a significant source of revenue, Chad's
cotton-producing sector has been unable to successfully
pursue opportunities offered by privatization. U.S. cotton
subsidies are frequently blamed as the source of the collapse
of Chad's cotton sector, but inefficient management by
parastatals has as much to do with the sector's failures.
Chad is eligible to export products under the African Growth
and Opportunity Act, but, aside from oil, has only managed to
export small amounts of gum arabic (used in food processing)
and shea butter. Poor to non-existent infrastructure,
corruption and absence of a skilled work force hinder foreign
and domestic investment.


11. (SBU) As part of the oil pipeline financing package
arranged by the World Bank and other lenders, Chad agreed to
an innovative arrangement for managing its oil revenues
whereby the bulk of the royalties would be earmarked for
social sectors such as health and education. Not
surprisingly, this pathbreaking experiment in transparency
foundered in December 2005 when the President, strapped for
cash, unilaterally changed the Chadian law governing use of
oil revenues. This provoked a rupture with the World Bank
which took over five months to resolve. The new agreement
recommits the Government to funding priority poverty
reduction sectors, but allows wiggle room for spending on
security.


12. (SBU) Chad's oil boom -- expected to last less than a
decade -- will severely test its absorptive capacity and
ability to manage and spend the resources so as to promote
sustainable economic growth and improve the Chadian standard
of living (currently ranked among the lowest in the world.)
Chad's ability to maintain fiscal discipline is severely
taxed by low government capacity and the use of revenues for
security spending. Absent better fiscal discipline, Chad
runs the risk of losing access to the IMF's Poverty Reduction
and Growth Facility.

FIGHTING TERRORISM
--------------

13. (SBU) Chad's vast and porous borders leave it open to
infiltration by terrorist elements. In March 2004, the
Chadian army engaged in an intense battle with members of the
terrorist group GSPC. The terrorist leader Al-Para was
finally handed over to Algerian authorities in October of
that year. The cooperation of Chad,s security services and
army on counter-terrorism issues has been excellent, and
President Deby welcomes additional U.S. counter-terrorism
assistance provided under the TSCTP. In July 2004, U.S.
Marines finished training and equipping 179 Chadian soldiers
as part of the Pan-Sahel Initiative (PSI),the TSCTP
precursor. These troops learned to respond to internal
threats from terrorism and banditry. In 2005 and 2006, Chad
participated in several U.S. military training programs,
including the Flintlock exercise. U.S. assistance continues
with retraining of the PSI unit, and training of additional
recruits.


14. (C) Post also works to counter terrorist threats by
implementing a program of Muslim outreach and providing
development assistance to counter the conditions which can
foster extremism. For the most part, Chadian Muslims are
moderate and Muslim leadership in Chad is supportive of U.S.
programs throughout the country. Muslim leaders also work
closely with the government to rein in radical Islamic
elements.

DEBY, DEMOCRACY, AND DEVELOPMENT
--------------

15. (SBU) Chad's human rights record remains poor and
government institutions lack the capacity and the will to
bring justice to average Chadians. President Idriss Deby
Itno oversaw a return to democracy in 1995 after seizing
power by force, but subsequent presidential and legislative
elections were flawed and the Constitution was revised in
2005 to abolish Presidential term limits. The President was
re-elected for a third five-year term in May 2006 in an
election boycotted by the opposition. However, some positive
steps have been taken concerning electoral reform for the
upcoming communal and legislative elections, with the support
of the European Union (EU) and the UN. If successful, these
will lay a positive foundation for Presidential elections in

2011.


16. (C) The international corruption watchdog organization,
"Transparency International" named Chad (along with
Bangladesh) as the world's most corrupt country in 2005.
Corruption permeates most aspects of government operations.
Civil society remains fragmented and too weak to pose a
counterbalance to government power.

THE U.S. PRESENCE IN CHAD
--------------


17. (SBU) The United States closed its USAID Mission in Chad
over ten years ago. A modest amount of U.S. assistance is
managed directly by the Embassy and supports grass-roots
efforts to improve education, provide access to water, and
promote human rights. TSCTP development funding for
community empowerment and conflict mitigation in areas where
the risk of Islamic extremism is deemed high is handled by a
USAID sub-contractor, the Academy for Educational Development
(AED). The Mission also maintains a strong outreach to Muslim
communities through its public diplomacy programs.


18. (SBU) The United States Embassy in Chad has 28 direct
hire-Americans. The American community in Chad - never large
- was reduced significantly following the drawdown of
personnel from the UN, international NGO's and the oil
consortium after the April 2006 attacks on N'djamena by
Chadian rebels. As a result of unrest, the Peace Corps
program has been closed and suspended indefinitely.
Americans are not targets in the struggle between President
Deby and rebel contenders, but the danger of widespread civil
disorder is very real.

TAMLYN