CHAD ELECTION DIALOGUE: A POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITY?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 000446

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL CD
SUBJECT: CHAD ELECTION DIALOGUE: A POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITY?


1. (U) SUMMARY: Discussions on electoral reform are moving
forward between the Mouvement Patriotique de Salut (MPS),
Chad's ruling party, and the opposition. Agreement could
come in the next weeks. Even diehard critics of the regime
see promise that the talks could lead toward a more inclusive
and transparent electoral process in Chad. Other political
party and civil society leaders nevertheless feel that many
of the issues that caused problems in the May 2006 elections
and previous attempts at national dialogue remain unresolved.
Depending on the results of the talks, the USG should be
ready to assist in preparations for elections and a new
census. END SUMMARY


2. (U) The MPS and allied parties, together with leading
opposition groups, launched an inter-Chadian dialogue in
April on reforming the electoral process before the next
legislative and communal elections. 17 political parties
(nine in ruling party; eight in the opposition) have been
involved, spurred on by the European Union's local mission.
Key players in the drafting committee include Jean Alingue,
Saleh Kebzabo, and Salibu Garba from the Chadian opposition
and Mahamat Hissein, cabinet director in the Presidency. A
document with the agreed conclusions was due for release at
the end of May; it is still expected to be completed soon,
perhaps as soon as next week.

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Areas of Agreement...
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3. (SBU) The discussions have already made progress on
several issues that have proved insurmountable in the past.
The Commission Electorale Nationale Independante (CENI),the
commission responsible for holding elections, will be
reconstituted to have an equal number from the ruling party
and the opposition, i.e., 15 members from each side. The
electoral code will be revised, including arrangements for
voting by nomads and Chadians living overseas. Steps will be
taken to improve the general environment for the elections,
including assuring access to the media and the neutrality of
the Constitutional Council and Supreme Court. All parties
also agree on carrying out a new election registration
exercise.

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...But Other Issues Still Unresolved
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4. (SBU) Other issues are proving more difficult to
resolve. One involves the participation of the armed
opposition. The draft document shared with us calls for a
cease fire and a national dialogue that would include the
Chadian armed rebel movements. The Chadian government has
categorically rejected such proposals in the past. According
to drafting committee member and opposition representative
Salibu Garba, this time the government has provided
assurances that it would accept language appealing for an
inclusive dialogue. For his part, EC Ambassador Gilles
Desequelles has told us that the involvement of the armed
opposition is non-starter.


5. (U) Also unresolved is the question of the long-delayed
national population census. The last one took place in 1993;
a new one would delay the next elections into 2009.
Opposition representatives are nevertheless insisting on
doing so. They maintain that otherwise there will be no way
of accurately defining the legislative districts or drawing
the boundaries for the local districts. EC Ambassador
Desequelles has taken a public stand advising against making
a new census a precondition for future elections. In his
view, a census is not necessary for organizing credible
elections. Worse, he is concerned this would require

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extending the mandate of National Assembly deputies, last
elected in 1992, at least another two years, further
diminishing the National Assembly's credibility.

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Complaints About Being Left Out
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6. (SBU) Civil society groups and other political parties
are less pleased with the election dialogue. Vincent
Danebaye, vice president of RPR-Lingui, has spoken out
against the Coordination des Partis politique pour la Defense
de la Constitution (CPDC),the main association of opposition
parties, for accepting a dialogue that does not include other
political actors. He objects to the CPDC's position in favor
of organizing a full national census. He complains that this
will prolong the mandate of the current deputies far too
long.


7. (SBU) In a discussion with PolOff May 17, civil society
leader Delphine Kemneloum confided that many civil society
groups viewed the latest national dialogue as potentially
harmful to the cause of democracy and human rights in Chad.
She protested that civil society groups have been left out of
the process. She accused most political parties of only
looking out for themselves and of having failed to improve
the country. Even worse, she claimed, some political parties
have even facilitated corruption. In her view, if civil
society groups were a part of the debate on election reform,
they could help in encouraging Chadians to vote in a proper
election.


8. (SBU) Speaking with the Ambassador May 21, EC Ambassador
Desequelles explained that he had sought the participation of
civil society groups in his initial efforts to jumpstart the
election reform dialogue. This is how it had been done
during his time seeking to promote dialogue and elections in
Togo, his previous assignment. In Chad it was the opposition
party representatives, he noted, who had refused to permit
their participation.

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Challenges and Motivations
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9. (SBU) Even if the differences on the census and the role
of the armed opposition can be resolved, several challenges
remain. Carrying out a new census, along with a voter
registration exercise, will cost money and take time.
Postponing the elections, already rescheduled several times,
will not necessarily ensure that the opposition will accept
the results of the census or implementation of the electoral
reforms. Holding elections will be problematic as long as
the armed rebellion in eastern Chad persists. Still, the sad
record of electoral reform initiatives over the last few
years makes the progress made so far all the more impressive
-- whatever the practical outcome of the talks now underway.


10. (SBU) Several reasons can be advanced for why talks may
be getting somewhere this time. The opposition parties,
having boycotted the flawed presidential elections last year,
have finally come around to accepting that President Deby has
a mandate to stay in power until 2011, whether they like it
or not. President Deby may have determined that election
reform is fine now, since the reforms envisaged for the
legislative elections will not affect his claim to five more
years in power. The EU's new activism, not to mention the
3.27 million euros it has pledged towards electoral reform in
Chad and the additional 4.25 million euros it has promised
for good governance projects, is also a factor.

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Will We Have a Place at the Table?
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11. (SBU) The question remains what role the United States
should or could play in supporting this effort. In our view,
we should be ready to do so, if and when the talks on
electoral reform start to produce results and the government
and key political actors demonstrate a serious commitment to
implementing them. But at this stage, we are only in a
position to provide moral support. The FY 2008 budget
exercise yielded no resources to use for democracy or
governance, notwithstanding our case for making it this
mission's top goal. We look forward to working with the
Department on possible funding to assist with this critical
exercise. Even a small USG contribution (e.g. using an NGO
to promote a voter education program) could have a big
pay-off in Chad.
WALL