INGRAHAM AND FREE NATIONAL MOVEMENT WIN BAHAMIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L NASSAU 000559

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR RCBUDDEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KCOR BF
SUBJECT: INGRAHAM AND FREE NATIONAL MOVEMENT WIN BAHAMIAN
ELECTION

REF: A. NASSAU 414


B. NASSAU 435

C. NASSAU 516

D. NASSAU 550

E. NASSAU 551

Cassified By: Charge d'Affaires Brent Hardt for reaons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: According to still unofficial counts, The
Free National Movement (FNM) captured 24 of 41 parliamentary
seats in Bahamian elections May 2. Hubert Ingraham, who
served as Prime Minister from 1992-2002, returns to office
and is expected to name his cabinet in the coming week.
Despite running with the advantages of incumbency, a strong
economy, and freshly cut electoral district boundaries, the
PLP became the first Bahamian political party not to win a
second term in office. Strong FNM organization, a growing
middle class, high-profile government scandals, and
widespread concerns about poor and inefficient governance
proved the keys to the FNM's victory in a close election.
The FNM also rallied on the strength of Ingraham's decisive
personality, a characteristic that will make him a good U.S.
partner. We expect the FNM to abandon the PLP's embrace of
Cuba, possibly downgrading the Embassy in Havana to a
consulate. A pragmatic Ingraham will be less sympathetic to
non-aligned positions, more skeptical of Venezuela, and less
focused on CARICOM group positions. In contrast to outgoing
PM Christie, Ingraham will be willing to make commitments and
follow through on them. END SUMMARY.

FNM WINS 24 SEATS, HUBERT INGRAHAM TO LEAD COUNTRY
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2. (U) According to unofficial election results, the FNM
captured 24 of 41 parliamentary seats in the May 2 national
election. Official results will be released the evening of
May 3, but outgoing Prime Minister Perry Christie has
conceded the election. The race was the closest in decades,
and the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) is well positioned to
be a strong opposition in Parliament. Based on Post's
limited election day monitoring, balloting appeared to be
conducted freely, fairly, and without violence. However,
several recounts are ongoing and some results in close races
may be contested.


3. (U) The leader of the FNM, former Prime Minister Hubert
Ingraham, will again become Prime Minister. FNM leaders are
meeting today to begin deciding cabinet appointments. The
current Governor General will swear in the new PM as soon as
the election results become official, and will swear in the
new Cabinet within the next 10 days. Parliament will
officially open with the new parliamentarians sworn in on May

23. It had been expected that former Bahamian Ambassador to
Washington Joshua Sears would be tapped as Foreign Minister,
however, Sears lost his race for Parliament. Should Ingraham
decide to appoint Sears to the Senate, he could still be
named that post.

ELECTION TURNED ON DEMOGRAPHICS, SCANDAL AND LEADERSHIP
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4. (C) The PLP held many advantages going into elections.
It was a well-financed incumbent, held 29 of the 40 seats in
parliament, and boasted of a strong economy, job growth, and
billions of dollars in new investments. However, the PLP
made a tactical error by focusing the election on the
personalities of the two party leaders. Unlike former Prime
Minister Christie, Ingraham is decisive -- so much so that
many blamed the FNM's 2002 election defeat on "Hubiggety"
Ingraham's imperial attitude. By focusing on personality,
the PLP allowed the FNM to hammer away at the themes of trust
and efficiency. Hubert Ingraham, also known as "The Delivery
Boy," is famous for his blunt honesty and his ability to
deliver on his promises. This contrasted favorably for
voters with Christie's reputation for tardiness, lack of
control over his Ministers, and inability to make tough
decisions. The PLP's campaign theme -- "So Said, So Done" --
only served to highlight its own lack of action on
outstanding electoral promises. The FNM's theme -- "It's
About Trust" -- resonated with a populace frustrated by
Christie's scandal-plagued MPs, and the FNM buttressed this
theme with pledges of open government and anti-corruption

legislation (reftels C, D).


5. (C) The FNM's victory came also from its superior party
organization. In a 2005 conversation with the Charge', PLP
Chairman Raynard Rigby had praised Ingraham's skills as a
grassroots campaign organizer and predicted a tough fight for
the PLP if Ingraham resumed party leadership. Rigby's
prediction came true, as the FNM's party machinery was the
driving force during the election. FNM constituency workers
were electronically connected to headquarters and its
detailed electronic maps and databases, with clear plans for
house to house outreach and a unified approach to national
advertising. Even on election day, FNM election workers
coordinated like cogs in a well-oiled national machine while
PLP workers labored, constituency by constituency, with
little evident coordination. In a pre-election meeting,
Ingraham told the Embassy that Christie was a likable man and
gifted speaker, but he was the last person you would want to
organize a government. The Prime Minister's office was
notorious inside and outside the government for its
inefficiency and disorder. The PLP's inability to organize
itself effectively for the election clearly flowed from the
top. In fact, Christie's indecisiveness kept him from
calling an early election, when the FNM was in leadership
crisis and Ingraham still had one foot in retirement.
Instead he waited until the last possible moment and thereby
allowed Ingraham and the FNM the maximum time to get their
feared organizational machinery in gear.


6. (C) Demographic shifts also played a key role in the
election. Traditional PLP seats in the low-income center of
New Providence and traditional FNM seats on the beachfronts
were fairly secure for each party. However, as The Bahamas
has developed and as income and education levels have risen,
constituents have moved from the traditional PLP areas into
new middle-class areas. This shift has expanded the
potential FNM base and eroded traditional loyalty to the PLP
as the party of independence among those who view the FNM
agenda as better suited to middle-class sensibilities. As a
result, the FNM took most of the battleground districts with
mixed constituencies. Another key demographic change was the
large increase in young and first-time voters who are less
tolerant of traditional Caribbean handout politics and want
their representatives to deliver good governance.


7. (C) In fact, perceptions of poor PLP performance in
government dogged PLP candidates on the hustings. While the
FNM candidates discussed their plans to develop local
government and improve services, the PLP candidates were
forced to defend their sketchy record. In many cases,
constituents were fed up with poor trash collection, bad
roads, and perceived indifference of the parliamentary
representatives to their concerns.


8. (C) These three winning factors -- demographic shifts,
national party organization and a focus on good governance --
framed an election of differing campaign styles and parties
with differing core values. The PLP is still the party of
Lynden Pindling, the father of Bahamian independence whose
later years were tarnished by allegations of drug-related
corruption. Rooted in the working-class neighborhoods of The
Bahamas and quick to evoke issue of race, it continued to
campaign in the Pindling era style of perks and kickbacks for
constituents (reftel D). The FNM victory reflects a
politically maturing Bahamas, focused on modern governance
and a more integrated, national approach to politics that
clearly attracted younger and middle-class voters towards the
party.

FOREIGN POLICY TO BE NATIONALISTIC, PRAGMATIC AND COOPERATIVE
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9. (C) We can expect Ingraham to move decisively on several
key issues of concern to the United States. During
conversations with Ingraham leading up to elections (reftel
A),Ingraham promised to work closely with the FAA to resolve
concerns over the previous government's desire to assume
control of the Bahamian Flight Information Region (FIR). He
will welcome continued close law enforcement cooperation with
the U.S. to combat drug flows and illegal migration. We will
seek to enlist his support early to conclude a Proliferation
Security Initiative agreement (long delayed under the PLP)

and to improve airport security. Ingraham's serious,
pragmatic approach, proven track record of cooperation with
the U.S., and ability to move quickly on issues when needed
should strengthen an already close relationship.


10. (C) Compared to Christie, Ingraham's foreign policy will
likely be less multilateralist and more nationalistic.
Ingraham has been critical of the PLP's closeness to Cuba,
and he indicated to us that he would downgrade relations with
Cuba if elected from an embassy to a consulate. His
government is also likely to be more skeptical of Venezuela,
the Non-Aligned Movement and CARICOM than the PLP. Ingraham
is a strong nationalist whose criticism of foreigners
purchasing Bahamian land struck a chord with voters. His
criticism (ref A) of the U.S. arrest and prosecution of
Bahamian-born airport workers caught smuggling drugs because
he felt they should have been prosecuted in Bahamian courts
also reflects this nationalistic streak. While Ingraham will
not hesitate to stand up for Bahamian national priorities, he
has worked closely with the U.S. in the past and we expect he
will move quickly to ensure a close and cooperative
relationship with his country's most vital diplomatic partner.
HARDT