PRE-ELECTION ROUNDUP: MOMENTUM TO FNM AS PARTIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L NASSAU 000550

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR RCBUDDEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KCOR BF
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION ROUNDUP: MOMENTUM TO FNM AS PARTIES
HIT ISSUES

REF: A. NASSAU 516

B. NASSAU 435

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires D. Brent Hardt for reasons 1.4(b) and
(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the final run up to May 2 elections,
violence has faded, replaced with isolated vote-buying
allegations, though these are not expected to compromise
outcomes. In its recently released party platform, the
opposition Free National Movement (FNM) has promised to
restrict foreign purchase of land, maintain a neutral foreign
policy, and push good governance measures, including
accession to anti-corruption treaties, ethical standards,
open contracting and a freedom of information act. The
ruling Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) continued to focus on
its expanding international engagement, anchor developments
on the outer islands, and popular social development
programs. While the race is still too close to call, the FNM
has clearly gained momentum in recent rallies and in early
voting by police and military, making it a slight favorite to
win power. The PLP privately concedes loss of national
momentum, but continues to rely on influence in individual
constituencies and better name recognition among its
candidates. Regardless of which party wins, the U.S. can
expect a strong bilateral partner. END SUMMARY.

FNM PROMISES OPEN GOVERNMENT; PLP FOCUSES ON ECONOMY
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2. (C) Just 10 days before elections, the political parties
released their party platforms. While the late release is
telling of the general focus on personalities over issues in
Bahamian elections, key differences have emerged and the
platforms support election themes. The FNM "Manifesto 2007"
focuses on its good governance election theme, promising
accession to anti-corruption treaties, ethical standards for
elected representatives, open contracting and a freedom of
information act. It also continues criticism of the PLP's
"anchor project" development plans, promising not to sell off
Bahamian land to foreign investors. On foreign policy, the
Manifesto is vague, broadly promising non-intervention and
regional cooperation, including a pledge to advocate for
greater international support for Haiti. It does not contain
the FNM's private indications to us that it intends to
downgrade the status of the Bahamian mission in Cuba from an
Embassy to a Consulate or to end the Cuban eye-care program.
(Comment: FNM criticism of foreign investment is populist
politicking, playing on Bahamian fears that foreigners are
buying up prime Bahamian lands. With a huge trade deficit,
foreign investment is required to maintain the Bahamian
balance of payments, and absent a miraculous rise of Bahamian
industry, foreign investment will remain central to the
Bahamian economy under either party. Foreign investment
boomed under the FNM during its last term in office. End
Comment.


3. (C) The PLP platform paper "Action Agenda 2007" is
similarly broad-based, touting economic gains under PLP
leadership and promising to continue plans to draw investors
-- and needed infrastructure -- to outer islands in need of
an economic boost. It also promises to continue the popular
development of community-based initiatives, such as the
successful and award-winning community policing program,
while expanding social services. On foreign policy, the PLP
promised to continue expanding its international influence
and -- while not mentioning Cuba specifically -- lauded its
new presence abroad under PLP rule. It also pledges new
embassies in Geneva, Latin America and Africa as part of a
more "progressive" foreign policy. Finally, it promised to
pursue free trade agreements with the EU and US. (Comment:
Given that the Government collects revenues mainly through
import duties, free trade would require a major restructuring
of the tax and government revenue systems -- contrary to
another PLP pre-election promise. End Comment.)

CLOSE RACE STILL TENSE, LEADING TO PRE-ELECTION SHENANIGANS
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4. (C) Following an early outbreak of violence (reftel A),
campaigning has become more civil. While isolated incidents
continue -- most recently a series of scuffles during early

polling -- the general mood is again respectful as candidates
walk amongst rival groups and in the community without
violence. In such a close race, however, people remain
nervous ad other shenanigans are replacing election violenc
in the fight for precious votes. There have ben credible
allegations of PLP vote-buying in at east three
constituncies, with party workers offring between $250 and
$2000 for votes. In one case, workers allegedly offered the
cash in return for cell-phone camera pictures of PLP ballots,
causing the parliamentary registrar in charge of voting to
ban cell phones from polling stations. The PLP also alleges
that the FNM is buying votes, but no press reports have
supported these allegations. Political campaigns on both
sides state candidly that they have been approached for money
by some voters. Candidates have not been tied to vote-buying
and these isolated events are not expected to compromise
elections.


5. (C) Election day may bring some confrontations at polling
places. Pol Chief attended a planning meeting of one of the
FNM candidates in a battleground constituency where the
candidate told his election day workers that he expected
trouble at one of the two polling places in the constituency.
He instructed his workers not to cause trouble, but with
about 150 supporters outside each of the polling stations in
his district on election day, confrontations are possible.

POSSIBLE RED TIDE?
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6. (C) In a small nation dominated by personal
relationships, most voters want to support the winning party
and lay claim to post-election spoils. Having an opposition
MP representing your district brings limited rewards for
voters. For this reason, there is a history of late shifts
in voting as one party emerges as a clear leader and voters
rush to jump on the bandwagon. In this context, April 26th
-- early voting for police and military -- was an important
day in the campaign period. During early polling, Poloff
noted an overwhelming number of red FNM flags, cars, posters
and T-shirt wearing supporters at the polling stations. This
perception was probably not lost on the logjam of potential
bandwagon jumpers who paraded past polling stations all day
attempting to gauge the momentum.


7. (C) Regardless of neutral observations showing FNM
momentum, each party scrambled to claim victory after early
polling, though the tone of PLP spin was decidedly more
somber. In discussion with Poloff, FNM Deputy Leader
Symonette exuberantly claimed 80 percent of the early vote,
and proudly claimed clear momentum based on more visible
public support. PLP Minister of Education Sears also claimed
victory, but with a more restrained explanation: "Don't judge
by what you see on the street. The FNM may have more money,
more flags and more T-shirts, but we have more homes. When
you get into the constituency races, we have the lead. They
are running as one man - Ingraham - who has great support,
but we are running better candidates." These remarks echo
Prime Minister Christie's surprising recent speech promising
24 specific constituency victories despite mounting FNM
support: "Cars don't vote! Lamp posts don't vote! Bumper
stickers don't vote! Posters don't vote! . . . You ga vote!"

COMMENT: STRONG, DEMOCRATIC PARTNER CERTAIN
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8. (C) Sears' frank admissions, and Christie's surprising
speech, tell the story of the election. The FNM is clearly
gaining momentum and may now enjoy better broad-based support
leading to election. If this were a presidential election,
FNM leader Hubert Ingraham would win. However, constituency
by constituency parliamentary match-ups are not as easy to
determine, and the overall race is still too close to call.
Ingraham's credibility as a decisive leader, the focus on
scandal, and the promise to clean up government, has gained
traction. The PLP has some individually strong candidates
and better name recognition that offer the advantages of
incumbency. The ruling party is banking that the strength
and record of their individual candidates coupled with
assiduous constituency work over the past five years will be
sufficient to carry them to victory one constituency at a
time. The outcome is uncertain, with Post currently

estimating over 1/3 of the constituencies up for grabs.


9. (C) What is certain is that the election will produce a
strong democratic partner (reftel B). Both parties will
support counter-drug and migrant interdiction operations and
work closely with us to strengthen our Third Border against
terrorism. On foreign policy, the FNM is likely to be less
involved in Non-Aligned initiatives, and more focused on its
interests in the U.S., while the PLP is likely to continue
expanding The Bahamas international engagement as a strong
NAM and CARICOM partner. The FNM's likely focus on good
governance is urgently needed, and the potential withdrawal
of PLP overtures toward Cuba under the FNM would be welcome.
Post has maintained good working relationships with the PLP
as evidenced by the Megaports and CSI initiatives, and has
moved the government to rethink its approach to human rights
votes at the UN. Whoever is elected, we will move quickly to
press the new government for a rapid conclusion of a
Proliferations Security Initiative agreement, urge their
continued focus on improving airport security, and seek to
resolve the future of The Bahamas Flight Information Region.
HARDT