GUINEA: FORMER PM FALL ON CURRENT IMPASSE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000469

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/EX, DS/IP/AF, CA/OCS
PASS ALSO TO PEACE CORPS & AID/AA
TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB ASEC CASC PINS AEMR EAID GV
SUBJECT: GUINEA: FORMER PM FALL ON CURRENT IMPASSE

REF: CONAKRY 82 AND PREVIOUS


1. (SBU) Summary: Former Guinea PM Fall sees a yawning gap
between President Conte's red lines and those of the union
leaders. He predicts violent conflict between "the people
and the army" on one side and "Conte's armed supporters" on
the other. End Summary.


2. (SBU) PolCouns met with SRSG for Somalia Francois Fall
(former Guinean Prime Minister) to solicit his views on the
current impasse between Guinea's union leaders and the GoG
(see reftel). Fall averred that he remains in daily contact
with senior level contacts in both the GoG and the
opposition. He related the following points:

-- This time the population is united in favor of change.
Even Kaloum (Note: the Conakry neighborhood inhabited
primarily by President Conte's Sousou ethnic group) has
demonstrated in support of the union leaders' demands.

-- Conte will never cede power peacefully or yield to demands
under pressure, although many of those surrounding him are
capable of seeing that their best interests are no longer
served by remaining loyal to him.

-- Conte will never agree to a constitutionally empowered
Prime Minister as "Head of Government." He sees that as his
exclusive role. "Coordinator of government affairs"
empowered only by a "mission letter" from Conte is the only
role he will ever permit for a "Prime Minister."

-- Similarly, Conte will never accept a Prime Minister named
by anyone other than himself. Conte may propose Kerfalla
Yansanneh, former Governor of the Central Bank. Some
political and labor leaders are considering former ECOWAS
Executive Secretary Lansana Kouyate, but Conte is unlikely to
accept him.

-- Conte will not accept that a Prime Minister choose his own
government. At a minimum, he will insist on naming his own
Defense, Provincial Administration, Security and Agriculture
ministers.

-- The union leaders will not accept Conte's red lines. They
saw how former would-be reformist Prime Ministers such as
Sidya Toure, Celein Diallo and Fall himself were undermined
by Conte when they attempted to make real changes in how
Guinea is governed. They are saying "we will not be fooled
again."


3. (SBU) Fall is worried about a likely violent confrontation
in Guinea between "the people and the army" on one side and
"Conte's armed supporters" on the other. Fall made the
following points:

-- Conte knows the army will not fire on the people. He no
longer trusts them. All the firing on peaceful demonstrators
has been done by either the presidential guard, the gendarmes
or "Aicha Conneh's militia."

-- Aicha Conneh (former leader of the Mandingo faction of
Liberia's LURD rebels and highly influential Presidential
soothsayer to Conte) has recalled her militia from Guinea's
forest region to Conakry to protect Conte. They are using
the arms that Conte had provided them in 2003 when they
fought Charles Taylor.

-- Conte is also protected by armed elements sent from Bissau
by his old friend President Nino Viera.

-- Conte never engages in "dialog." He considers it beneath
him. He does not care about world opinion, but some of those
around him do.

-- This direct challenge to his rule is a "tonic for his
health. "Conte is only wide awake and vigorous when fighting
to keep power."


4. (SBU) Fall believes that in the end the army will step in
to save the nation. "When the international community sees
that constitutional means have been exhausted and that the
people are demanding the army take over to organize
elections, then they will accept. He pleaded for the U.S. to
join others in publicly supporting demands for an official
inquiry into the deaths of unarmed protesters. "This will
make it clear to those around Conte that it is time to

NAIROBI 00000469 002 OF 002


abandon ship."
RANNEBERGER