Somali Clan Warfare Threatens Reconciliation

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001322

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2017
TAGS: PTER ASEC MOPS SO ET UG
SUBJECT: Somali Clan Warfare Threatens Reconciliation

Classified by PolOff John O'Leary. 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) An analysis of the Mogadishu neighborhoods in which
yesterday's fighting occurred (3/21) indicates that the armed
Hawiye opposition to the TFG has expanded from primarily the Ayr
sub-clan to a variety of sub clans from the Hawiye/Habr Gidr
(including the Saad and Duduble) and the Abgal sub-clan,
particularly the Warsangeli. (The Warsangeli are Prime Minister
Gedi's sub-clan, though many reportedly view Gedi as a tool of the
Ethiopians.) There were also reports this morning (3/22) that
Hawiye/Suleiman militia south of the central Somali town of
Galkayo had clashed with Darod/Majerteen clan militia moving from
Puntland to Mogadishu to reinforce TFG forces. (President Yusuf
hails from the Darod/Majerteen.)


2. (U) Contacts in Mogadishu reported renewed clashes this
morning in some neighborhoods, though on a reduced scale from
yesterday.


3. (C) The Somali Ambassador to Kenya confirmed to us this
morning that the Prime Minister's office had distributed leaflets
last night (3/21-22) warning the residents of northern
neighborhoods (primarily populated by the Habr Gedir/Ayr) to
evacuate in order to avoid becoming casualties. A media contact
in Mogadishu told us that an "Ethiopian artillery battalion" had
arrived on the outskirts of the city last evening. Mogadishu
contacts informed us that they had seen large numbers of Ethiopian
troops and armor moving toward the city's outskirts early today.


4. (C) Ambassador Ranneberger has placed a call to President
Yusuf to try to dissuade the TFG from any precipitous action on
the part of the TFG or the Ethiopians. The European Commission
office in Nairobi also reportedly is asking its headquarters in
Brussels to contact President Yusuf to ascertain his intentions
pertaining to reconciliation and the current fighting. EC
officials here also reportedly want their HQ to urge restraint in
the TFG's response to yesterday's clash.


5. (C) Comment. It does not appear that Ugandan forces have
been targeted or otherwise involved in the recent fighting.
Although the radical Islamists have exploited and manipulated the
current situation to the point of a breakdown in the
reconciliation process, they do not seem to be driving the current
clashes. Considerable numbers of Somalis now appear to see the
present conflict in clan versus clan terms rather than TFG versus
Islamists. If conflict in Mogadishu has now solidified into an
inter-clan conflict, then the prospects for a successful
reconciliation process may be significantly reduced. If the
Ethiopians attack densely populated Hawiye neighborhoods in
Mogadishu, reconciliation may be postponed indefinitely. End
comment.

Ranneberger