POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE IN KALONZO COUNTRY

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001093

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KE
SUBJECT: POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE IN KALONZO COUNTRY

REF: A. NAIROBI 1069

B. NAIROBI 220

Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Officials and local leaders in Machakos, a
medium-sized Kenyan city, are no less engaged in the current
general elections debate than their counterparts in the
capital, but have a cooler view of what the next 10 months
hold. Overwhelmingly populated by members of the Kamba
tribe, Machakos is squarely in the opposition camp - as long
as their "son" Kalonzo Musyoka is the presidential candidate.
Opposition politics notwithstanding, Machakos officials are
generally skeptical about the central government, and its
long arm into their backyard. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On the dividing line between the old and new
Nairobi-Mombasa highways, Machakos is close enough to Nairobi
to understand well the politics of the capital, but far
enough away to have a mind of its own. A small city of about
60,000 residents, Machakos Town is the seat of Machakos
District. The district, currently divided into six
constituencies, is slated to be sliced into three districts
when the planned increase in the number of districts is
effected.


3. (SBU) The district is governed by a mix of locally
elected and centrally appointed officials. The parallel
systems of local government and provincial administration are
the result of independent Kenya's attempt to patch a
democratic system on a colonial relic which was allowed to
remain in place. As such, it has been one of the targets of
the constitutional reform debate and is inherently
conflicted. The provincial administration, run by the
Ministry of Internal Security and Provincial Administration
is a centrally appointed network of civil servants
(provincial commissioners, district commissioners, chiefs).
Local government comprises a system of counties, one for each
district, with locally elected district councilors, and in
the case of larger population centers, municipal councilors
and a mayor. Machakos District, for example, is also Masaku
County. The operation of the local government is overseen by
the Ministry of Local Government. Both Ministries are headed
by ministers who are also elected members of parliament (with
their own political interests).

Tribalism Alive and Well
--------------


4. (C) An overwhelmingly Kamba area, Machakos is Kalonzo
country. Machakos residents are pulling for their Kamba
"son", opposition presidential candidate (and by many counts
the only candidate out there who could beat Kibaki) Kalonzo
Musyoka as the next president. What is less clear, however,
is whether they are rooting for the opposition coalition
ODM-K party or Musyoka himself. "It's all about tribe,"
District Commissioner (DC) S. O. Warfa told poloff. An
outsider to the local Kamba community, Warfa, who is from the
country's northeastern region, reiterated that politics in
Kenya is not about issues or developed agendas but
personalities and tribe. In Machakos, he continued, anyone
vying for elected office only has to successfully attach him
or herself to Musyoka to win. The consequence, Warfa added,
is that the major personalities in a tribe become godfathers,
granting the electoral wishes of their chosen ones.


5. (C) While Kalonzo is clearly the favorite in Machakos, he
has yet to win the ODM-K nomination, and if he does, the
opposition coalition has to stay together, backing him all
the way to State House. "If Musyoka is not the ODM
candidate, Machakos will go to plan B," Kenya Police Officer
in Charge of Station (OCS) for Machakos Municipality Oduor
stated. Oduor declined to suggest what plan B might be, but
members of the Masaku County Council, the district's elected
body, were less circumspect: "Kibaki will win again," they
claimed, suggesting Kalonzo's supporters would vote for the
President. (NOTE: There are two reasons for Kibaki as the
second choice of Kamba voters. Irrespective of tribe, Kibaki
himself is generally popular among Kenyans, who distinguish
the President from his government (ref A). Also, there is a
tribal affinity and a close historical and cultural
relationship between these two Bantu groups. END NOTE.)
But Optimistic for Peace
--------------


6. (C) Although Nairobi-based observers predict the
possibility of a return to elevated levels of political
violence this elections cycle (ref A),there is less concern
in Machakos. The Kamba are a calm people, OCS Oduor
explained, noting that apart from some other communities
which had migrated to Machakos town, the entire district was
homogenous. Nonetheless, he will be allocated some
additional police, and he will identify hotspots, as the
elections season progresses, repositioning his security
forces as necessary. DC Warfa too, was unconcerned by
predictions of political violence. Pointing to a copy of the
day's newspaper, the DC accused the media of incitement.
Peaceful does not necessarily mean trouble free, however.
District Elections Coordinator for the Electoral Commission
of Kenya (ECK) Ndonye told poloff that while rigging on
election day was a thing of the past, he expected politicians
to attempt to "transfer" voters. Seen in Kenya during past
elections, transferring voters is a process by which a
parliamentary candidate will bus in favorable voters from a
neighboring constituency for registration, and again on
polling day, to sway the vote where he is contesting.


7. (C) Despite his confidence that Kambas in Machakos would
conduct themselves peacefully during the elections season,
OCS Oduor pointed out that ethnic sensitivities will run
close to the surface. He offered as an example his own
position. Although apolitical, the OCS is responsible for
granting licenses for politicians and parties to conduct
rallies. Sackings and transfers are not uncommon if an
officer is perceived to be insufficiently supportive of his
boss' political preferences.

The Divide Between Local and Central
--------------


8. (C) The elections debate highlights institutional
tensions between the provincial administration and local
government. Although the County Council is locally elected,
the Council's clerk is appointed by the Ministry of Local
Government. The clerk controls access to Ministry funds and
is effectively the Ministry's eyes and ears in the district.
Machakos County Councilors expressed frustration at this
arrangement, which in effect, they told poloff, gives the
Ministry control over the Council. Furthermore, Council
Chairman Samuel Muindu added, during an election year, the
clerk will attempt to ensure few councilors are reelected (he
did not, however, explain how this is done). Muindu argued
that the clerk prefers less experienced councilors who are
unfamiliar with the process of working with the Ministry.


9. (C) Adding yet another layer, Machakos Town is a
designated municipality, with ten elected municipal
councilors, headed by a Mayor. Machakos Deputy Mayor Mutavi
echoed the County Council's suspicions about the government
in Nairobi, decrying as "mischief" Internal Security Minister
Michuki's widely reported efforts to encourage local chiefs
to influence the election. Mutavi told poloff that Machakos
chiefs reported to him that they had received instructions
from Michuki to only allow public rallies to be held by
candidates favorable to the government. As the lowest level
of the provincial administration system, there are 62 in
Machakos District, Chiefs are highly influential and
intimately involved in the political life of their
administrative areas. The ECK's Ndonye remarked that the
success of the current voter registration drive (most likely
final before the election) depended on Chiefs and Assistant
Chiefs to actively promote participation.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) The view from Machakos is mixed: predictions for a
peaceful electoral season are positive; firmly entrenched
tribal interests with little regard for political agendas is
disappointing. There is no question about the strength of
personality driven politics. With local officials who are
all king of their own patch, there is plenty of room for
"mischief" as there was during July 2006's by-elections.
While none of it was violent, it was insidious, underscoring
the importance of a consistent message delivered to
government officials and politicians on all sides to observe
the highest standards of electoral conduct. Powerful old
dogs like Michuki, however, have proven themselves unable and
unwilling to learn new tricks. As a district commissioner
in the colonial government, Michuki saw that the provincial
administration is a tool to be exploited by the central
government. It is a lesson he has not forgotten. END
COMMENT.
RANNEBERGER