FEWSNET REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY PRESENTATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 001077

SIPDIS

AIDAC

USAID/DCHA/AA FOR WGARVELINK, LROGERS
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, CGOTTSCHALK, KCHANNELL
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, TANDERSON, TMCRAE
AFR/EA FOR KNELSON
ADDIS FOR MJENNINGS, SPOLAND
BUJUMBURA FOR PMOLLER, RLUNEBURG
DAR ES SALAAM FOR PWHITE, MLATOUR
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN
KAMPALA FOR DMUTAZINDWA, RSEMPA, WWELZ
KHARTOUM FOR ARAHMAN, PFESENDEN
KIGALI FOR RWASHBURN
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER
NSC FOR TSHORTLEY

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID XA ZI KPRP
SUBJECT: FEWSNET REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY PRESENTATION
FOR USAID OFFICES IN KENYA


1. USAID/East Africa Regional Economic Growth and
Integration (REGI) and Regional Food for Peace (FFP)
Offices have cultivated a productive relationship with
the regional FEWSNET Office. In that light, FEWSNET has
been holding periodic briefings for USAID's offices
(USAID/EA, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, OFDA) in Kenya. These
briefings are designed to highlight various climatic
issues and their impact on food security in East Africa,
Great Lakes, and Horn of Africa regions. On February 1,
2007 FEWSNET held a joint presentation with IGAD Climate
Predications and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and FAO
entitled, "Food Security and Humanitarian Situation
Briefing" Horn of Africa and Great Lakes Region. The
information session provided comprehensive highlights of
key issues for the various regions including updates on
the recent flooding in Somalia, Kenya and Burundi; the
pastoralist livelihood crisis; Rift Valley Fever. In
addition, the discussions covered the regional markets
outlook, climate change, and transitory versus
structural causes of food insecurity. "Surge" funding
has enabled FEWSNET to undertake several analyses on the
broader picture of emerging trends in food security,
including its study of regional markets. Regrettably,
USAID/EA does not have funds in the FY 2008 budget for
regional FEWSNET or ICPAC.


GREATER HORN OF AFRICA: RECENT SHOCKS -- RIFT VALLEY
FEVER, CIVIL CONFLICTS, FLOODS AND EL-NINO UPDATE



2. Tropical cyclone developments in the Indian Ocean
are occurring due to ocean warming resulting in heavy
rains off the East African coast and neighboring areas.
The main rain belt is currently over southern African
states which has exhibited above-normal rainfall
performance between October 2006 and January 2007.
Moderate El-Nino conditions occurred which brought
heavier than normal rainfall in the Horn of Africa
countries although the rains were less in intensity
compared to those seen during the 1997/98 El-Nino
episode. These same areas were dealing with below-
average rainfall and in some areas a serious drought,
during the period of October 2005 - March 2006 that
affected about 10 million pastoralists. FEWSNET
reported that the seasonal rains of October - December
2006 were above-normal and largely beneficial for the
worst drought-affected areas. However the heavy rains
resulted in floods in certain zones causing serious
damage in parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, Burundi,
Rwanda and Tanzania that affected an estimated 2 million
people.


3. Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne virus
that attacks domestic livestock and can be passed on to
humans. There have been confirmed cases in Kenya where
over 100 human deaths have been reported. Somalia and
Tanzania have suspected cases while no cases have been
identified in Ethiopia so far. Vaccine availability
continues to remain a challenge for prevention purposes.
The fallout of quarantining and limiting the risks of
this disease is negatively impacting regional livestock
markets due to the restrictions on trade and slaughter

NAIROBI 00001077 002 OF 004


of animals since December 2006. Livestock abortions are
frustrating the re-building of herds in drought-affected
areas. As emergency levels escalate for RVF, the
tightening of international ban on livestock exports is
likely, causing a more severe market disruption.


4. Most pastoral areas are starting to recover from the
2005/2006 drought but more good seasons are needed. The
improving rangelands bring about improvements in
livestock production, however these new shocks threaten
the recovery process. Eastern Kenya (Mandera, Wajir,
Garissa, Ijara, Tana River districts),south and central
Somalia (Gedo, Juba Valley, and parts of Bay, Bakol and
Hiran regions) and southeastern region of Ethiopia
(parts of Somali, Oromiya, and Afar regions) share
contiguous borders and have significant pockets of
extreme food insecurity.


COUNTRY SUMMARIES: ETHIOPIA, SOMALIA, KENYA, DJIBOUTI,
UGANDA, SUDAN, RWANDA, TANZANIA, BURUNDI



5. The FEWSNET presentation provided a round up of
highlights of the food security situation in individual
countries in the region. Alert levels Emergency,
Warning, Watch, and No Alert, follow FEWSNET's food
security status classifications, indicating severity of
food insecurity. The USAID/FFP emergency and
development program contributions for FY 06 are noted as
a contextual reference. The data are from the Food for
Peace Information System (FFPIS),October 17, 2006.

ETHIOPIA - EMERGENCY STATUS (as about 2.3 million people
require emergency food assistance): Despite the overall
improvement in food security situation, there are about
10 million people requiring humanitarian assistance,
about 2.3 million of whom need emergency food
assistance. The numbers remains high due to food
insecure pastoral areas; slow recovery from floods and
hailstorms; record high cereal prices; terms of trade
that favor grain suppliers over pastoralists; tribal and
resourced based conflicts in Oromiya and Somali regions
and restricted cross border trade. (USAID/FFP
contribution in FY 06 was $146,382,000. However, there
was carry-over from the Bill Emerson Humanitarian
Trust).

SOMALIA - EMERGENCY STATUS (as about 1 million people
require humanitarian assistance): Since December 2006,
the conflict continues to escalate causing internal
displacement of 400,000 people and resulting in border
closures with Somalia. In addition, civil insecurity
has resulted in death, loss and destruction of
livelihood assets that have implications for the
severity, magnitude, scale and duration of food
insecurity and for the degree of resilience and
abilities to manage future shocks. There is an unknown
camel disease that causes sudden collapse and death of
camels and mortality in 10 to 20 percent of the herd.
Reported cases have been scattered, not affecting all
pastoral households. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06
was $82,178,000.)

NAIROBI 00001077 003.2 OF 004



KENYA - EMERGENCY STATUS (as over 2.0 million people
require emergency assistance, although this figure is
expected to significantly come down after the February
2007 food security assessment): Food insecurity remains
highly precarious for pastoralists in the east after the
outbreak of the RVF. Other pastoralist areas in the
northwest have experienced marked improvements in food
security. However, several more good seasons are
required for recovery to take hold. Severely drought-
affected farm households in the southeast and coast show
improvements in food security. National maize output
for both seasons estimated to be 3 million MT, nearly 20
percent higher than normal. Outlook for eastern
pastoralists depends on verifiable eradication of the
RVF. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was $94,794,000.)

DJIBOUTI - WARNING STATUS: Malnutrition rates are
reported to be above international standards with Global
Acute Malnutrition (weight/height) at 20.4 percent and
Severe Acute Malnutrition at 7.1 percent. However, the
survey was done in late 2006 by government and partners
at the height of last year's drought, and so may have
come down. Pastoralists in the northwest and Dikhil
district face serious stress due to the prolonged dry
period of October - February affecting 35,000 people.
Urban consumer prices are beyond the affordability of
poor households. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was
$2,140,000.)

UGANDA - WATCH STATUS: Northern districts remain food
insecure. Second crop planting season improved due to
extended rains in bimodal areas. Uncertainty over the
peace process is slowing the pace of IDP returns. Over
500,000 people in the largely pastoral Karamoja Region
face acute food shortages and civil insecurity related
to government disarmament efforts, and the situation is
deteriorating. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was
$55,849,000.)

SOUTHERN SUDAN - WATCH STATUS: Expected increase in
food supply resulting from improved harvests. Fair 2006
crop harvests and good off-farm food sources make 2007 a
better year than the past five years. Population census
planned in November 2007 that will likely increase
because of the returning population. There were 300,000
returnees in 2006 and another 350,000 expected in 2007.
Since July 2006, insecurity related to the Uganda peace
process is disrupting trade and movements and could
potential affect the food security in Central Equatoria
as armed conflicts have disrupted trade and movement
since July 2006. (USAID/FFP contribution to Sudan in FY
06 was $402,947,000.)

RWANDA - NO ALERT: Low to moderate food insecurity risk.
Rains were late but December - January harvest season
was good. There is a national food deficit (153,000
MTs) but imports are expected to fill the gap. In the
Congo-Nile Ridge and Southern Plateau, livelihoods,
which are usually chronically food insecure due to land
degradation/poor soils, high population density,
moderate food insecurity exists, while in Bugesera
uneven distribution of rains has caused crop production

NAIROBI 00001077 004 OF 004


shortfalls. Most of the country continues to face
higher than normal food prices. (USAID/FFP contribution
in FY 06 was $20,773,000.)

TANZANIA - NO ALERT: Generally food secure. Good
harvest expected for the February/March 2007 crop, which
accounts for 30 percent of annual production. There was
localized flooding along river banks due to heavy rains
in Mwanza, Shinyanga and Dodoma, but not resulting in a
significant humanitarian situation. There is an
outbreak of Banana Wilt in Mara and Kagera regions along
with some threats of RVF following the flooding.
(USAID/FFP contribution in
FY 06 was $14,055,000.)

BURUNDI - (No FEWSNET Classification): Delayed start of
rainy season, uneven distribution of rains followed by
heavy rains and flooding has caused severe disruption in
crop production. The anticipated below-normal
production for agricultural season will cause seed
deficit for the principal planting season. Cassava
production has been severely impacted by cassava mosaic
disease since 2005. Populations are practicing distress
strategies such as asset sales and eating one meal/day.
EA/USAID/REGI and FFP recommend expanding FEWSNET
services into Burundi. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06
was $15,013,000.)


6. USAID/EA appreciates the insightful and
comprehensive briefing that the FEWSNET Regional Office,
with support from ICPAC and FAO offices, provided on
food security issues in the Greater East Africa and Horn
of Africa Regions. FEWSNET is a valued partner of the
USAID/EA/REGI and FFP offices, providing in-depth
analytic work on food security and support to making
better food aid decisions. We also expect FEWSNET to
continue to play a very constructive role in refocusing
food security monitoring and assessment on new
integrated sectoral analysis and common action, such as
in the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) system,
which incorporates humanitarian and livelihoods
classification towards early response in the Horn of
Africa region.


7. Ironically, East Africa regional funding for FEWSNET
in FY 2008 is zeroed out under the Operational Plan,
although the opportunities for fostering regional value-
added and coherence are greater than ever.

RANNENBERGER