KENYA ELECTIONS: MAIN PARTIES STRUGGLE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001069

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PINR KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: MAIN PARTIES STRUGGLE TO
CRYSTALLIZE

REF: A. 06 NAIROBI 4137

B. 06 NAIROBI 5393

C. 06 NAIROBI 5207

D. 06 NAIROBI 5000

Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: While talk of early or snap elections has
faded, the political debate has shifted to the main parties'
internal leadership struggles. On the opposition side,
leaders continue to put on a brave face regarding the
viability of their coalition ODM-K party. In the President's
NARC-Kenya party, contenders are vying to be Kibaki's
right-hand man, and debating a "go it alone" approach versus
a coalition of the remaining pro-Kibaki elements of the
original NARC grouping. After hitting a new high for good
electoral conduct in 2002, civil society leaders predict the
possibility of a return to elevated levels of political
violence this elections cycle. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) With President Mwai Kibaki's announcement during a
February 9 speech that elections will be held in December in
keeping with precedent, rumors of snap elections aimed at
catching the opposition unprepared have dissipated. Putting
that debate aside, the two main parties which are likely to
field viable presidential candidates are focused on resolving
their internal struggles. For the opposition Orange
Democratic Movement-Kenya (ODM-K) this means finding a
presidential candidate among the half-dozen who have lined up
so far. For the government's NARC-Kenya party, the struggle
is over who to name to its important chairman and vice
presidential candidate positions, and to determine whether to
contest the elections alone or as a coalition.

The Opposition: A Happy Family?
--------------


3. (C) Publicly they make a good show of solidarity, but
privately opposition leaders admit there are serious
questions about the viability of their coalition. In recent
conversations, ODM-K presidential hopefuls Uhuru Kenyatta and
Raila Odinga recognized that their party's success is
predicated on their ability to cooperate and put ego aside.
Kenyatta acknowledged that "it is a challenge confronting so
much personal ambition." Odinga was less willing to waiver
from the party line in affirming ODM-K's sticking power. He
produced ODM (or Odinga) funded opinion poll results which
showed a united ODM-K pulling in 60.1% of votes nationwide
compared to NARC-Kenya's 35.8.


4. (C) The party itself is a couple of steps behind Odinga.
ODM-K leaders have yet to agree to the formula by which they
will choose their lead man (or woman, however unlikely),
nevermind weathering the selection process. Two methods have
emerged for picking the ODM-K candidate. In one,
locally-elected delegates will vote for a candidate at an
electoral college. The other, dubbed the "consensus method,"
leaves the aspirants to work it out among themselves. Odinga
was unable to articulate a winning strategy for ODM-K,
pointing instead to the ways in which he alleges the
government had tipped the playing field in its own favor,
particularly through withholding the issuance of national
identity cards. ODM-K claims it can win on the broad appeal
of its team as a whole. This is in contrast to Kibaki, who,
according to Kenyatta, has destroyed all but his Kikuyu base,
and is banking on winning as an individual. He will then
hand-pick supporters to key offices to deliver a
parliamentary majority, he explained. While Kibaki doesn't
have the mass base, he does have in his pocket the provincial
administration and the police, Kenyatta warned. As
predicted, on February 22 the media reported that Internal
Security Minister and nucleus of the Kibaki inner circle John
Michuki issued a warning to chiefs (the lowest level of the
provincial administration) to defend the Government's record,
or risk suffering unspecified consequences.

NARC-Kenya Polishes its National Patina
--------------


5. (C) While NARC-K is spared the trouble of choosing a
chief among chiefs, it is mired in its own organizational
wrestling match. For the coveted Chairman's seat the main
contenders are Trade Minister and interim Chairman Mukhisa
Kituyi and newly reinstated (after his earlier resignation
under pressure for corruption allegations, ref D) Education
Minister George Saitoti. The struggle is not just about who
will sit at the new party's helm. According to Kenya
National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) Chairman Maina
Kiai and other observers, the NARC-K chairmanship race is a
proxy for who will succeed Kibaki after 2007. The winner is
also likely to be tapped as Kibaki's running mate.


6. (C) The friction between Kituyi and Saitoti runs deeper
than competition for the party's top office. The two also
represent competing strategies for structuring NARC-K. On
one side are advocates (such as Saitoti) of a coalition which
embraces the remaining pro-Kibaki parties from 2002's NARC
coalition and the subsequent Government of National Unity.
The other side (championed by Kituyi) envisions a new party
from the ground up, which allies, such as members of FORD-K
and NAK, can join or not. Kituyi dismissed the "Saitoti
model," which will have at its core (Kibaki's) Democratic
Party (DP),as simply cobbling together various tribal
parties rather than achieving real multi-ethnic cooperation.
His own method, however, Kituyi asserted, seeks to bring in
all like-minded parties, on equal footing. Kituyi was
confident he will succeed: "I'll beat Saitoti in his own
ethnic constituency". (COMMENT: Observers often ridicule
Saitoti's claim to be a Masai, saying that he is in fact a
Kikuyu. END COMMENT.)

Kibaki in the Running
--------------


7. (C) President Kibaki will soon declare his intention to
run for President as a NARC-K candidate, Kituyi informed
poloffs. The President had wanted to make his announcement
in early February, but the party persuaded him to wait. Some
NARC holdouts in government are trying to convince Kibaki not
to abandon them, Kituyi added. (NOTE: Kibaki's announcement
was planned to coincide with the kickoff of NARC-Kenya's
party elections, scheduled for March 3 but postponed
indefinitely at the last minute, reportedly due to squabbles
among the party's leaders. END NOTE.) Kiai wondered,
however, about the President's ability to hold up to the
physical rigors of campaigning (NOTE: A Ministry of Health
official recently told poloff that it is only with regular
physiotherapy sessions that the President is able to perform
his duties. END NOTE.) There is a tendency to separate
Kibaki from the government. No one really has a problem with
him, Kiai argued. Even the opposition acknowledges he is a
mild person surrounded by hard-liners, he added. Kituyi made
a similar observation citing opinion poll results in which
voters whose first pick was an opposition candidate, named
Kibaki as their second choice.

Ethnicity and Violence
--------------


8. (C) Faced with the ethnic question (will politicians
resort to promoting communal animosity to win),opposition
leaders reflexively point fingers at Kibaki's record. If the
President had assembled a truly inclusive government, the
importance of ethnicity in Kenya would have been diminished.
Odinga added, "Kibaki has been unable to unite Kenya." The
President continued the same pattern as before, surrounding
himself with elites, he stated. Citing new voter
registration figures in Central and his own Nyanza provinces
since 2002, Odinga argued that the difference of 300,000 new
registrants in favor of Central was an example of the
government's polarizing policies. According to KNCHR
Chairman Kiai there is a strong sense of grievance,
especially among the Luo and Kalenjin, against the Kikuyu
(ref B). For example, it's only the Kikuyu who are focused
on development needs he continued; for the other groups
development is important, but they want respect as well.


9. (C) Minister Kituyi was guardedly optimistic about
Kenya's ability to make a real break from ethnic politics.
NARC-K could be the party to do it, he asserted, but it
depends on who is leading the party. Some like him, are
genuinely concerned with Kenyan national interests. Others,
like Internal Security Minister John Michuki ("he is
senile...bold, but foolish," Kituyi remarked) do not realize
it is not possible for one group to rule all of Kenya.


10. (C) Despite the success of the 2002 election, former
Transparency International Kenya Executive Director Gladwell
Otieno expected a reversion to the violent ethnic tension of
previous years. During the last election, she explained,
there was a greater theme of reform and a common focus on
ending the Moi era, which does not exist now. Although he
felt that as result of 2002 and 2005's well-conducted
constitutional referendum Kenya has come to the point where
it can use a non-violent approach, Kiai said politicians
still have their intimidation gangs which can be turned on
and off at will. He added that the "president's handlers
will take an increasingly hard-line approach." Echoing
Kenyatta's concerns, Maina also predicted that the government
would exploit the (centrally appointed) provincial
administration, as it did in the July 2006 by-elections in
five constituencies (ref C).

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) The government of Kenya and its opposition are made
up of a mix of reformers and old-line dinosaurs. Reformers
have not coalesced into a single party. Until ODM-K stops
subsisting on the showmanship of unity and happy coalition,
and gets down to the business of selecting a candidate (now
expected in June, a date that has slid from April) it will be
difficult to tell if it really does have the ability to stay
together for common cause. Until it sees otherwise, NARC-K
will continue to bank on a splintered opposition and an easy
stroll back to State House, especially once Kibaki formally
declares his candidacy. Even if they remain united, the
opposition faces a significant obstacle in the government's
control of the provincial administration and potential use of
government resources, as it is alleged to have done in the
July 2006 by-elections. The Mission has built up
considerable capital with the Government of Kenya over the
last several months. That capital will be spent during the
next 10 months to buttress the democratic process. END
COMMENT.
RANNEBERGER