LOWEST OKINAWAN VOTER TURNOUT SINCE REVERSION, CONSERVATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NAHA 000065

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/25/2032
TAGS: PGOV MARR JA
SUBJECT: LOWEST OKINAWAN VOTER TURNOUT SINCE REVERSION, CONSERVATIVE
WINS UPPER HOUSE BY-ELECTION, REFORMIST WINS GINOWAN MAYORAL RACE

CLASSIFIED BY: Carmela A Conroy, Acting Consul General, U.S.
Consulate General Naha, U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. Summary: Just 47.8% of Okinawa's eligible voters turned
out for the national Diet upper house by-election, the lowest
rate of participation in a national-level election since
Okinawa's 1972 reversion to Japan. The ruling coalition's young
female candidate defeated the consolidated reformist parties'
candidate by a 5.5% margin. LDP leaders hope, and opposition
leaders suspect, that Aiko SHIMAJIRI's victory will make it more
difficult for the presumed female reformist candidate to succeed
in the July upper house elections. The opposition candidate and
the restive parties backing him failed to find a winning
campaign theme. In Ginowan City, the anti-base incumbent mayor
easily fended off a weak conservative opponent. Yoichi IHA took
nearly 55% of the vote due to his challenger's "boring,"
unmotivated stumping style. Opposition parties and the media
are struggling to cope with an Okinawan public increasingly
interested in candidates who might thicken Okinawan pocketbooks,
rather than those promising to lighten the military "burden."
End Summary.

LDP/Komeito's Unlikely Candidate Takes Previously Reformist
Upper House Seat

2. (C) As predicted by Okinawa's conservative and reformist
party leadership alike, the inexperienced, unknown conservative
candidate defeated her inexperienced, unknown reformist opponent
in the upper house National Diet by-election. ConGen Naha's
impression of both candidates was that they were both utterly
lacking in experience to prepare them for national-level elected
office. Nevertheless, language school owner-operator and
mother-of-four Aiko SHIMAJIRI, 42, won the Upper House
by-election, backed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)'s
heaviest hitters.


3. (C) Early on, LDP leadership chortled about the superior
visual appeal of Aiko SHIMAJIRI relative to the reformist
candidate, former Rengo Okinawa chairman Yoshimasa KARIMATA.
Throughout the campaign Shimajiri stayed on message, saying she
intended to change politics "from the kitchen" and focus on
social welfare issues. She deflected all questions regarding
military base issues by saying she would hew to the positions of
conservative governor Hirokazu NAKAIMA. Prime Minister Shinzo
ABE stumped on Shimajiri's behalf on Okinawa's main island as
well as in Miyako Jima, hometown of Shimajiri's opponent, as
well as her husband and in-laws.


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4. (C) LDP Executive Director Hiroshi NAKAMATSU told us
Shimajiri's win would give the LDP/Komeito alliance a head start
on the July upper house elections. The Democratic Party of
Japan (DPJ)'s executive director Yasuhiro ARAKAKI and Sozo's
Acting President Hiroshi GOYA confided to us that Shimajiri's
candidacy had nothing to do with her qualifications, and
everything to do with the July elections. The presumed
reformist candidate in July would be the Okinawa Socialist
Masses Party (OSMP)'s Keiko ITOKAZU, who surrendered the upper
house seat being contested in this by-election to run for
prefectural governor in November 2006. Shimajiri's election
would put a spike through Itokazu's attempt to return to the
upper house, they theorized, because Okinawan voters were
unlikely to send two women in a row to the Diet.


5. (C) The week before the April 22 election, opposition party
chiefs seemed resigned to their loss. The DPJ's Arakaki
acknowledged that Karimata was a weak campaigner, and his
supporting parties fragmented. Arakaki admitted to being
conflicted because Shimajiri's husband, Noboru, was a founding
member of the DPJ's Okinawa branch. Local contacts told the
Navy Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS) that Karimata had
counted on his Miyako Jima connections bringing the vote, both
at home and with Miyako Jima "expats" living in Okinawa's Urasoe
City. Instead, the contacts said, Shimajiri's in-laws' superior
popularity carried the day for their "yamatonchu"
(mainland-born) daughter-in-law.


6. (C) Early in his campaign Karimata stumbled by calling for
the total elimination of bases from Okinawa--shaking his DPJ
support. He later angered supporters on the other end of the
spectrum by seemingly downplaying the importance of base issues.
He published a ten-point manifesto, with base issues in ninth
place on the list. Questioned about that during a debate
sponsored by the Ryukyu Shimpo, Karimata denied that the issues'
position on the list was significant, and claimed all ten topics
were of equal importance. Later in the campaign Karimata
avoided military issues except when pushed by the media. His
main theme was that he would work on eliminating the income
disparity between Okinawa and mainland Japan, but he never
developed this into a rallying cry. After the election, a
high-ranking official in Karimata's campaign told reporters that
labor just couldn't compete with the well-funded LDP machine and
business organizations.


7. (C) The Okinawa Times noted that the DPJ's participation in
Karimata's campaign (and Okinawan politics at large) was
complicating reformists' "joint struggle." The Okinawa Times
reported that even Rengo's national headquarters did not
formally declare its support for Karimata "until the end"

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because it was unhappy about DPJ-driven changes to Karimata's
campaign themes. NCIS learned from their contacts that the
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) decided to concentrate its
resources on the Ginowan mayoral race, and paid lip service only
to Karimata's campaign. OSMP's and its star Itokazu's support
for Karimata was lukewarm, as they were still grumbling that
Rengo had put insufficient energy behind Itokazu in the November
'06 gubernatorial campaign. Sozo, a political party founded by
former LDP maverick Mikio SHIMOJI, left its members free to vote
as they wished.


8. (U) Just 47.8% of Okinawa's eligible voters turned out for
this national Diet upper house by-election, the lowest rate of
participation in a national-level election since Okinawa's 1972
reversion to Japan. It "bested" the previous record low, 54.24%
for the 2004 upper house election, by over six points.
Shimajiri received 255,862 votes, Karimata 228,844 votes, and
virtually invisible independent candidate Hiroyuki KINJO took
just 9,142 votes.

Anti-Military Gadfly Iha Retains Ginowan City Mayor's Office

9. (C) The reformist incumbent Ginowan City mayor, Yoichi IHA,
55, easily defended his seat from a conservative challenger.
Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma is located roughly in
the center of Ginowan City, population around 100,000. Iha has
been a vocal opponent of MCAS Futenma, and his anti-base
initiatives have included putting bumper stickers and magnets
demanding MCAS Futenma be closed on municipal vehicles.
Conservative contacts believed he was vulnerable, however,
because he paid too little attention to running the city, and
too much to quixotic anti-base activities.


10. (C) Our contacts said that the result in Ginowan City was
not so much Iha winning, as conservative candidate Shingi HOKAMA
losing. Prefectural Vice Governor Zengi NAKAZATO complained to
ConGen Maher that Hokama had pledged to use his Ginowan City
retirement bonus to fund his campaign, then reneged and expected
the LDP to make up the difference. The LDP's Nakamatsu
characterized Hokama as a boring speaker who was too lazy or
haughty to actively campaign. The LDP wrote Ginowan City off as
a loss well before the election. Prime Minister Abe did not
visit Ginowan City during his April 15 visit to Okinawa,
Nakamatsu said, to avoid giving Iha grounds to claim he had
defeated the LDP at the highest level.


11. (C) With two races to draw them, 60.39% of registered
voters in Ginowan City participated in the April 22 elections.
In the mayoral race, Iha took 21,643 votes to Hokama's 17,801.
In the upper house by-election, Ginowan City voters chose
conservative candidate Shimajiri (20,247 votes) over reformist

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candidate Karimata (17,989 votes). During the last
gubernatorial election, the majority in Ginowan City voted for
conservative Nakaima. We believe that Ginowan voters' choices
demonstrate that candidates' personal strengths-or lack
thereof-are more important than their party support. Iha's win
was a sign of Hokama's unpopularity, not of Ginowan City voters'
support for the reformist agenda.

Reformists Struggling to Adapt to Voters' Rebalanced Concerns

12. (C) Bashing the military and military bases has long been
a staple of reformist campaigning in Okinawa. The results of
two 2006 elections shook Okinawan reformist politicians' faith
in that platform. In January 2006, voters in Nago City chose a
conservative mayor who pledged to work for economic
development-and would work with the central government to ensure
local concerns were taken into account in relocating MCAS
Futenma to Nago City. Reformist candidates pledged to demand
economic development and reject the FRF.


13. (C) In November 2006, Okinawans chose as their governor a
former Ministry of Finance bureaucrat and Okinawa Electric
Company leader who focused on pocketbook issues. His opponent
was reformist super-star and long-time anti-base absolutist
Itokazu, who had in her 2005 upper house Diet election drawn
more votes than any candidate in any Okinawan race before, or
since. Prior to the gubernatorial race, LDP leaders told us
that facing Itokazu as the sole opposition candidate was their
worst-case scenario. In the end, though, voters decided Nakaima
could better deliver on the issues they cared most about: their
pocketbooks.


14. (C) Reformists are finally acting on what opinion surveys
and voters have repeatedly shown, that Okinawans now place
higher priority on pocketbook ("kurashi") issues (unemployment,
access to health care, income) than on military base ("kichi")
issues. As one OSMP leader put it during the campaign, "The
serious disparities (in individual incomes, assets, jobs)
throughout the island are increasing and causing social
distress. Even with equality in opportunity, this situation is
serious and needs to be addressed."


15. (SBU) Karimata and his supporters tried to focus on
pocketbook and welfare issues. Only when prodded (usually by
one of the local daily newspapers),would they roll out their
traditional talking points on "base problems." They would note
the need for closing MCAS Futenma immediately and relocating it
outside the prefecture, or preferably, outside the country.
The more extreme reformists would rail against strengthening the
"base functions" in Okinawa. Quickly, however, they would
return to "kurashi" issues.

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16. (SBU) On April 5 the Okinawa Times expressed its irritation
that both upper house candidates were avoiding base issues.
"For the people of this prefecture," the editors asserted,
"there are no issues more important than base transformation and
Futenma relocation and the elimination of the safety issues
regarding the facility." The paper's editors added that, "(The
two candidates) must make clear their positions on base issues,
including the big changes that are taking place at Kadena Air
Base regarding the deployment of the Patriot missiles and F-22
and the parachute jumps."


17. (SBU) On April 17, the Okinawa Times ran a more forceful
editorial in response to a poll it recently conducted with the
Asahi Shimbun. The poll showed that 64% of Okinawan voters
responded that "kurashi" issues were their top concern in the
election, and just 15% cited "kichi" issues as the most
important topic. "What is this all about?" the editors fumed.
"Have the people of Okinawa forgotten the pain associated with
the unresolved base issues such as Futenma relocation -- ten
years after the release of the [Special Action Committee on
Okinawa] final report?"


18. (SBU) In an April 23 editorial, the Ryukyu Shimpo
acknowledged that the voters showed that they were interested in
"realistic responses" to practical issues, rather than
philosophical "island of bases" versus "island of peace"
arguments traditionally dividing reformists from conservatives
in Okinawa. Okinawa Times editors admitted there was public
support for Shimajiri's theme, that "kurashi no mondai"
(lifestyle problems) had superceded "kichi no mondai" (base
problems).


19. (SBU) Both papers went on to argue that, despite the ruling
parties' victory, the GOJ must tread carefully on the Futenma
replacement facility, as it could be interpreted as increasing
the base burden on Okinawa, ergo increasing the "disparity"
between Okinawa and mainland Japan. The Okinawa Times chided
its readers, "We must not turn our eyes away from the historical
facts regarding the oppression of the peoples' "kurashi" by the
U.S. base presence." The Ryukyu Shimpo asserted that the July
elections -- the most important political battle of the year --
would be a referendum on the Abe Administration. Comment: We
have observed that, for the Okinawa newspapers, the next
election is invariably the most important political battle of
the year. End Comment.
CONROY