WEATHER GIVES OKINAWA GOVERNOR OPTION OF SIDE-STEPPING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAHA 000049

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/16/2032
TAGS: MARR PGOV PREL JA CH TW
SUBJECT: WEATHER GIVES OKINAWA GOVERNOR OPTION OF SIDE-STEPPING
SENKAKUS VISIT

CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, U.S. Consulate
General Naha, U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



(SBU) Summary: The new administration of Okinawa Prefectural
Governor Nakaima made its first large public misstep on the
international stage, when it cancelled a publicly-announced over
flight of the disputed Senkaku Islands. While Japan considers
the Senkakus part of Okinawa Prefecture, China and Taiwan also
claim them. Shortly after the governor announced his intent to
visit the Senkakus, courtesy of the Japan Air Self Defense
Force, local representatives of China and Taiwan sent protest
letters. A hasty consultation with the governor's executive
committee revealed a number of drawbacks for the prefecture in
irritating China, but the conservative governor was loath to be
seen as giving in to China's claims. Providently nasty weather
the morning of the planned flight permitted the governor to
postpone the visit, and spend some time thinking about his next
move. End summary.

(U) On March 6 Okinawa Prefectural Governor Hirokazu NAKAIMA
publicly announced plans to fly over the Senkaku Island chain on
March 13, courtesy of Japan's Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF).
The island chain is uninhabited and considered by the GOJ to be
part of Okinawa Prefecture. China and Taiwan also claim the
Senkakus. The United States does not take a position on the
sovereignty of the islands, but considers them within territory
under Japanese administration. There are firing ranges and
water training areas provided under the Status of Forces
Agreement for US military use on and around the islands of what
the central government calls Kuba Jima (Kobi-sho on USG-GOJ maps
and Huangwei Yu in Chinese, using identical Chinese characters)
and Taisho Jima (Sekibi-sho and Chuiwei Yu). The areas have not
been used by the US military for decades, but Okinawa and
mainland Japanese papers reported the purpose of the governor's
visit was to view the military facilities.

(SBU) Reiji FUMOTO, the Okinawa Prefectural Government's
(OPG's) senior counselor for Military Base Affairs, told us that
the trip was one of many Nakaima was making to see all of the
territory within Okinawa prefecture, not specifically the U.S.
military areas. Apparently the JASDF needed a military-related
reason in order to justify flying a prefectural governor, and
the old training ranges provided the link. The press reported
Nakaima also planned to fly over the oil and gas fields in the
East China Sea to consider whether they could be exploited to
Okinawa's benefit. Several of our contacts in Okinawa's
business and political circles have told us they, too, have

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flown out on JASDF or Japan Maritime Self Defense Forces (JMSDF)
planes on "fact finding missions."

(C) Within days of Nakaima's announcement, the Chinese
Consulate General in Fukuoka (whose consular district includes
Okinawa Prefecture) sent a letter protesting the visit to
disputed territory, and requesting Nakaima cancel his trip.
The letter advised that Nakaima's visit could have a negative
effect on Sino-Japanese relations. The Taiwan equivalent to a
consulate general also sent a protest letter. Nakaima initially
shrugged off the requests, asking rhetorically why he ought not
visit islands in his own prefecture. MOFA's Special Ambassador
to Okinawa Toshinori SHIGEIE told ConGen Maher that he had
advised Nakaima that MOFA would not oppose him visiting the
Senkakus. He added, however, that MOFA hoped to avoid taking a
public stance on Nakaima's trip, due to the pending visits of
high-level Chinese officials to Tokyo. MOFA was apparently not
speaking with one voice at all levels, however. An Embassy
Tokyo contact at the OPG office in Tokyo said MOFA
"highhandedly" urged the OPG to reconsider the governor's flight.

(C) Notwithstanding his public nonchalance, Nakaima called
together his two vice governors and treasurer on March 12 to
reconsider whether to make the trip. Afterwards, OPG announced
that the over flight would go forward as scheduled on March 13.
Meanwhile, staff at the OPG's military affairs office privately
told ConGen Naha that it would, in fact, be postponed. Later,
at the ConGen's residence, Vice Governor Zenki NAKAZATO was
preoccupied. He worried aloud to dinner guests, who included
visiting Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer and China
hand Frank Januzzi. Nakazato was most afraid the flight could
adversely impact an agreement with China to lend the OPG some
Ryukyu Kingdom artifacts from the Chinese National Museum for
the November opening of the new Okinawa Prefectural Museum.
Nakazato was also concerned that the over flight might derail
discussions regarding direct commercial air service between
Beijing and Naha.

(C) On the other hand, Nakaima himself was determined not be
seen as deferring to Chinese claims to the Senkakus. He had
received calls from various leading conservatives, including
former Minister for Okinawan Affairs Toshimitsu MOTEGI, urging
him to hold fast and make the trip. OPG sources told us they
and the governor were genuinely surprised by the international
attention, and were in a bind. The prefecture wanted to avoid
crossing the Chinese, without appearing to cave in to their
demands. Januzzi, half in jest, told Nakazato the governor's
best course of action was to pray for bad weather so he could
postpone the flight.


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(C) The morning of March 13, Nakaima went to the airport and
met with the commander of the JASDF based in Okinawa, as
scheduled. The skies were heavily overcast, with wind gusts and
rain showers. Accompanied by the JASDF commanding officer,
Nakaima announced to the gathered media that his trip was
postponed due to unfavorable weather conditions. He insisted to
reporters that the postponement had nothing to do with outside
pressure, and that he wanted to reschedule the over flight as
soon as feasible. The Ryukyu Shimpo opined on March 14 that the
governor put himself in a bind, saying that unidentified OPG
officials strongly implied that the postponement was, in fact,
indefinite (i.e., permanent.) Embassy Tokyo's contact at the
OPG's Tokyo office said that announcing the trip in advance had
been a strategic mistake, and it was unlikely Nakaima would ever
execute the planned visit.

(C) March 14 Hiroshi NAKAMATSU, Executive Director of the
Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP's) Okinawa branch, also told us
that Nakaima should have just flown to the Senkakus without
announcing it in advance. Okinawa Prefectural Assembly members,
Okinawa Chamber of Commerce members, and political party
leadership, including Nakamatsu, flew out to the Senkaku islands
from time to time, courtesy of either the JMSDF or the JASDF.
Nakamatsu speculated that Nakaima had probably already seen the
Senkakus because of his roles as head of Okinawa Electric
Company, chairman of the Defense Association, or chairman of the
Okinawa Chamber of Commerce. Perhaps, Nakamatsu guessed,
Nakaima and the few OPG officials with whom he consulted in
advance just failed to imagine that his role as governor would
make a difference

(C) Comment: We think it is possible that OPG career officials
were genuinely surprised by the international reaction. The
issue would certainly not have been discussed during eight years
under the administration of the extremely cautious previous
governor, Keiichi Inamine. JASDF/JMSDF fly overs for Okinawa's
political and business leaders are almost matter-of-course. In
late 2006 Consul General Maher himself was offered the chance to
ride along on a JMSDF flight carrying local business leaders
(which he politely declined, citing a scheduling conflict.) The
OPG has been entirely directed toward intra-prefectural concerns
and its relationship with the national government, and its
international contacts have been limited to commercial and
cultural issues. Career OPG staff is now on alert and decidedly
leery of attempting another Senkaku trip. As for Nakaima
himself, he has struck us as a tenacious and savvy operator. It
seems unlikely that he was caught wholly unaware by the
controversy. Nakaima might postpone the flight to a date with
lower risk of endangering OPG interests, but we suspect there
will one day be press reports of a completed over flight. End

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Comment.
MAHER