FEW SURPRISES IN OMAN'S NATIONAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MUSCAT 000992

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2017
TAGS: PINR PGOV KDEM KMPI KPAO KWMN MU
SUBJECT: FEW SURPRISES IN OMAN'S NATIONAL ELECTIONS

REF: A. MUSCAT 979

B. MUSCAT 931

C. MUSCAT 742

D. MUSCAT 181

E. 06 MUSCAT 1468

Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo for Reasons 1.4 (b, d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Thanks in part to a relentless government effort to
get out the vote, a larger than expected 62.7% of registered
Omani voters reportedly cast ballots in the October 27 Majlis
al-Shura elections. According to the results of a speedy
electronic vote count, newcomers won 46 of the 84 seats in
the Majlis; 38 members of the outgoing Majlis retained their
positions. None of the 20 female candidates (including one
women running for re-election) was elected. By all accounts,
voting went smoothly at the Sultanate's 102 polling places.
Large crowds were present at a few locations depending on the
time of day. The level of women's participation varied
according to location; emboffs observed several private
mini-buses (presumably arranged by candidates) ferrying women
voters to the polls. The local press predictably painted a
very sunny picture of the election process. The Ministry of
Information provided a filing center with government
computers for foreign journalists (but with no hookups for
laptops); however, most major international media outlets
appear to have relied on stringers and local coverage for
their limited reporting. End Summary.

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THE RESULTS ARE IN
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2. (U) Voting at 102 centers (mostly schools) across the
country for members of Oman's Majlis al-Shura -- the directly
elected lower house of the country's bicameral advisory body
-- began at 7:00 am local time on October 27 and concluded 12
hours later. Immediately after the polls closed, ballot
boxes were sealed and transferred to the office of each
district's "wali" (appointed head of the local government)
for an electronic vote count. Election results in some small
districts were available a few hours after voting ended.
Sayyid Mohammed bin Sultan al-Busaidi, Interior Ministry
Under Secretary and Chairman of the Central Elections
Committee, announced the names of the 84 winning candidates
from all 61 districts to local media the morning of October

28.


3. (SBU) According to the official election results, 46 of
the members of the new Majlis al-Shura are new, while 38 were
re-elected. None of the 20 female candidates prevailed in
their electoral bids, although several had respectable
showings. One of the two women in the outgoing Majlis
al-Shura ran for re-election, but she fell shy of retaining
her seat by a few hundred votes. Winning candidates in most
regions of the country were more or less split between new
and veteran Majlis members. In the al-Dhahira region,
however, all four of the current Majlis al-Shura
representatives were re-elected, while all but one of
Dhofar's 10 representatives -- and three out of four of
Musandam's contingent in the Majlis -- were newly elected.
Some of the 632 candidates received as few as five votes.
(Note: Vote counts for each candidate are publicly
available. All losing candidates have the right to submit an
appeal petition to the government outlining the reason(s)
that the results of the vote count in their district should
be declared invalid. End Note.)

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A STRONGER THAN EXPECTED TURN OUT
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4. (SBU) According to the Interior Ministry, 62.7% of the
388,683 registered voters showed up at the polls - a
considerably higher percentage than many observers had
expected. (Note: Less than 40% of registered voters cast
ballots in the 2003 national elections. While there is no
official figure for the number of Omanis currently eligible
to register to vote, some estimate the number to be around
900,000. End Note.) In addition to sponsoring a pervasive
final media campaign designed to get out the vote (ref A),
the government announced a paid leave of absence from work
for all registered voters participating in the elections and
directed voting centers to issue a certificate to be
presented to employers as proof of voting. To further
galvanize voters, the Grand Mufti of Oman earlier released a
statement urging Omanis to participate "in the Shura

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process," while the suggested sermon issued by the Ministry
of Awqaf and Religious Affairs -- and used by most mosque
imams -- for the day (Friday) preceding the elections
stressed the concept of the "shura" (consultation) in Islam
and its role in Oman.

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A SMOOTHLY ORCHESTRATED VOTE
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5. (C) By all reports, the government's well-organized
preparations for the elections resulted in smooth voting
across Oman without any noteworthy irregularities. While the
government declined to allow international organizations or
other groups to monitor the elections (ref B),emboffs
informally visited several polling places at different times
of the day to observe the voting process. Morning appeared
to be the busiest time at the polls, with a small surge
occurring between 14:00 and 16:00 local time. Voting in the
early evening prior to the close of the centers was generally
light. At one voting center, a school in Muscat, emboff
witnessed a morning crowd of approximately 150 people
standing in the shade apparently waiting to vote. Traffic
near some centers was very congested at times, with vehicles
parked everywhere.


6. (C) With one exception, every voting center visited had
at least two Royal Oman Police (ROP) officers to guard
entrances and exits, with additional police to guide traffic
at some locations. The atmosphere at the polls visited by
emboffs was orderly and business like. Most polling places
contained big display boards carrying the photos and names of
the candidates. At several locations, groups of voters --
some entirely female -- arrived in private mini-buses
(presumably arranged by candidates) to cast their ballots.


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WOMEN'S PARTICIPATION
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7. (C) Women were visibly present during voting, although
their participation varied from place to place and also
depended on the time of day. Emboff observed almost no women
at one polling place in the early morning, while the crowd of
apparent voters at another voting center was about 40% women.
A few centers in more populated districts were designated
exclusively for female voters. One candidate in the north of
Oman, near the city of Sohar, assembled a "ladies' tent"
where female voters were given lunch (and reportedly a
"gift") and then ferried to the local polling location.
During a press conference the day after the elections,
Interior Minister Sayyid Saud bin Ibrahim al-Busaidi
expressed satisfaction with the participation of women in the
elections and noted the strong showing of female candidates
in some districts. He stated that he hoped women would win
seats in future elections and added that "the quota system
(for women) used by other countries could be studied."

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ROLE OF THE WRITTEN PRESS
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8. (SBU) In the days leading up to October's 27 voting, all
papers carried substantial material exhorting registered
voters to turn out and providing details on the organization
and mechanics of the elections. On voting day, newspaper
coverage focused almost exclusively on getting out the vote.
There was no public discussion by the candidates or the
media, however, about the issues. Reporting on the morning
after was factual and predictably positive, again devoid of
issues content. The official English daily "Oman Observer"
held the presses until early morning in order to carry a full
page showing all 84 winning candidates, while the private
English daily "Oman Tribune" broke ranks very slightly from
the generally sunny tone by headlining "New Majlis without a
woman" (before returning to form with subheads "Voter turnout
surpasses expectations" and "Motivated electorate reinforces
His Majesty's faith.")

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BROADCAST MEDIA: "SHURA, SHURA"
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9. (SBU) Election-day listening to state Arabic and English
radio was revealing. Both relied on an identical format,
alternating between in-studio reporting made up mostly of dry
"profiles" of each voting region and remote reporting from
polling stations that gave, for each, virtually identical
commentary (e.g. "male and female citizens are turning out in
their numbers, praising the efficiency and transparency of

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the voting process, as well as the wisdom of His Majesty
..."). Interviews with voters, if not actually scripted,
were highly rehearsed.


10. (SBU) Bridging each broadcast segment was an Arabic song
-- "Shura, Shura," -- acclaiming the Sultan's forethought in
creating the Majlis to help him in decision-making. English
radio also broadcast this song repeatedly, a rare exception
to the usual total segregation of languages. By early
evening, English radio had returned to its usual pop
offerings, while its Arabic counterpart lauded the success of
the polling, with a special emphasis on the participation of
women. Throughout the day, television relied on similar
commentary over footage of orderly crowds and of prominent
persons voting. The elections were the third story on
television and radio evening news (after the day's royal
correspondence and the visit of a delegation from India). As
with all local newspapers, there was no discussion of
individual candidates or their policies, or even specific
issues that might affect voting in a given district.

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INTERNATIONAL REPORTING
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11. (SBU) The Ministry of Information sponsored a (fully
funded) visit to Oman by approximately 90 regional and
international journalists with participation, sources say,
from as far afield as Denmark and Malaysia. However,
election coverage is only one facet of a more general agenda
for the trip, and most participants are feature or travel
writers, not political correspondents. On October 26, Al
Jazeera carried a 45-minute panel discussion on the election
during which Omani university students questioned election
officials and an academic, focusing on the lack of popular
interest in the Majlis al-Shura. On election day, Jazeera's
coverage relied on local reporters. Al Hurra had a crew in
Oman for the elections, but other major outlets (BBC, CNN,
AP, AFP, etc.) appear to have relied on stringers and local
coverage. As of one day after the elections, international
coverage has been muted.


12. (C) As reported ref A, the Ministry of Information set
up a filing center at Muscat's Grand Hyatt hotel (a first for
Oman),which proved something of a hit with local reporters,
as well as visitors. One person in the center in the evening
said that he had been there all day -- "it's cool, I can
surf, and there's coffee!" As the polls closed and the
results starting coming in, however, few others were there to
witness the news. Symbolic of the Ministry's tight control
of journalists was the filing center's equipment: it
featured plenty of computers, but no wireless capability or
laptop hookups, ensuring the ability to track every word
written.
GRAPPO