C-NE7-00774: OMAN ELECTION UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUSCAT 000931

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2017
TAGS: PINR PGOV KDEM KMPI KWMN MU
SUBJECT: C-NE7-00774: OMAN ELECTION UPDATE

REF: A. MUSCAT 742


B. MUSCAT 181

C. 06 MUSCAT 1468

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Alfred F. Fonteneau for
Reasons 1.4 (b, d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) A total of 632 candidates are competing in the
October 27 elections for the Majlis al-Shura. Contacts
indicate that only one of the twenty female candidates stands
a good chance of being elected. Final voter registration
figures show a substantial increase over corresponding
numbers for the 2003 elections despite continued apathy among
Omanis towards the upcoming polls. Some of this increase is
likely attributable to vigorous efforts by candidates to file
registration forms on behalf of their potential supporters,
as well as to the government's "get out the vote" campaign.
The government does not intend to issue official invitations
to non-governmental organizations to observe the elections.
Local media is playing a limited role in the run-up to the
elections, but remains cautious in publishing the political
views or policies of candidates. End Summary.


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A FINAL FIELD OF CANDIDATES
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2. (U) With roughly one month left before the holding of
national polls for the Majlis al-Shura (the lower house of
Oman's bicameral consultative body),preparations for the
elections by both candidates and the government are swinging
into high gear. After approving 717 individuals in May to
compete in the October 27 elections (ref A),the Ministry of
Interior announced on August 19 that candidates would have
one more week to withdraw from the electoral race before the
government began finalizing candidate lists. (Note: As
reported ref A, a number of initial candidates historically
drop out voluntarily due to low support or after negotiating
deals with their competitors. End Note.) On September 10,
the Interior Ministry confirmed 632 names on the final list
of candidates, compared to 506 running for election in the
2003 national polls. In only one district, in the
governorate of al-Buraimi, is a candidate running unopposed.
The Ministry has created an easily accessible website that
contains the names, and accompanying photos, of the
candidates for each electoral district.


3. (SBU) Twenty women remain candidates in the election,
including one of the two women who are members of the current
Majlis. Contacts speculate, however, that only one of the 20
has a good chance of being elected. (Note: The more popular
of the two women in the Majlis declined to run again. End
Note.) To increase the participation of women in the
electoral process, the Omani Women's Association of Muscat
held an elections awareness seminar on October 1, featuring
Shukur al-Ghamari, a current Majlis al-Dawla member and
former al-Shura member, as the keynote speaker.

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AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN VOTER REGISTRATION
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4. (U) After extending the voter registration period by
three months until the end of July (ref A),the government's
central elections committee announced in the press on
September 8 that registration had increased by nearly 50%
over the numbers for the 2003 elections. The most recent
government-supplied figures, as announced by the Minister of
Interior, state that 388,683 Omanis are registered to vote.
Names of registered voters are listed electronically on a
Ministry of Interior website. Hard copy lists of voter names
are available at the local government office for each
district.


5. (C) Several contacts, including within the Majlis
al-Shura, were somewhat surprised that voter registration had
increased by such a significant amount given the continued
apathy among many Omanis towards the elections and the Majlis
in general (refs A-C). There are a number of possible
reasons for this increase. First, Oman's rapidly growing
population has resulted in a natural surge of eligible
voters. Second, the government's concerted and extensive
"get out the vote" campaign (refs A-C) may have succeeded in
prodding a sizable number of reluctant voters to register.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, anecdotal evidence
suggests that many Omanis did not register themselves, but

MUSCAT 00000931 002 OF 002


signed registration forms (sometimes blank) at the behest of
candidates and their supporters, who then completed filling
out the forms and filed them with relevant officials. (Note:
Omani law does not require eligible voters to personally
submit registration forms as long as they voluntarily sign
the form and the person filing it presents the registrant's
national identity card. End Note.)

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VOTING CENTERS ANNOUNCED
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6. (U) On September 24, the central elections committee
announced that 102 voting centers had been designated for the
casting of ballots within Oman. The number of centers in
each region roughly corresponds to its population. The
heavily-populated al Batinah region along Oman's northern
coast, for example, contains 29 voting centers, while there
are only four centers in the sparsely-populated al Wusta
region. Voting in the Sultanate's designated embassies
outside the country (i.e. in all other GCC states as well as
Yemen, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia and Malaysia) will commence on
October 20, one week before the balloting inside Oman.

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THE (LIMITED) ROLE OF OBSERVERS AND THE PRESS
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7. (C) On October 2, Sayyid Saud bin Ibrahim al-Busaidi,
Minister of Interior, held an unannounced meeting with
members of the Oman Journalists Association and press
officials to further elaborate on the electoral process.
Busaidi noted that the Ministry did not plan on formally
inviting international or non-governmental organizations to
observe the elections, reasoning that the government did not
expect to experience any irregularities during the process.
Responding to audience concerns about the lack of
international observers, the Minister commented that the most
important goal for the government was to carry out "fair,
free, and transparent" elections, not to ensure that they
receive extensive international coverage. Busaidi added that
there were mechanisms in place to safeguard the electoral
process, and that in any event, the Omanis were "honest."


8. (SBU) On the media front, government-owned Arabic daily
"Oman" took the unprecedented step of publishing a special
supplement on August 7 featuring the photos and names of all
approved candidates. The following day, Arabic independent
daily "Shabiba" published the first-ever interviews with some
of the candidates covering their backgrounds and general
views, but not their platforms (assuming they have them). On
August 22, the Ministry of Information held a workshop for
television and radio reporters on the conducting of live
coverage of the elections. The Ministry will establish a
media center for journalists to receive information from the
Shura elections committee.


9. (U) Amending a prior prohibition on newspaper campaign
ads, the central elections committee announced on September
12 that candidates would be allowed -- as of September 15 --
to publish advertisements in the press. These ads, however,
may include only the candidate's name, picture and resume in
a space of no more than three standard columns. In his
October 2 meeting with journalists, the Interior Minister
stressed that the ad specifications would be strictly adhered
to in order to provide equal opportunity for all candidates,
regardless of income. Nevertheless, given the relatively
high cost of taking out such an ad in major Omani dailies
(over USD 1,300),only a handful have appeared to date.

FONTENEAU