POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MUSCAT 001026

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017
TAGS: PINT PGOV KDEM KMPI KWMN MU
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENTS

REF: A. MUSCAT 992

B. MUSCAT 979

C. MUSCAT 931

D. MUSCAT 742

E. MUSCAT 181

F. 06 MUSCAT 1468

Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo for Reasons 1.4 (b, d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Many Omanis continue to comment favorably on the
successful October 27 national elections for Oman's Majlis
al-Shura. Approximately 70% of the new Majlis member hold a
bachelor's degree or higher. According to contacts, some
vote-buying did occur and a few voters in several districts
reportedly fell off the registration rolls due to technical
errors, but without noticeable impact on the electoral
outcome. A solid majority of winning candidates was backed
by an informal alliance of leaders from major tribes.
Candidates from outside this tribal network, however, managed
to pick up more seats in the Majlis than in 2003.
Campaigning in some districts was intense, with candidates
sometimes pushing, or even exceeding, the limits of
permissible campaign activities. There was widespread public
disappointment, reflected in the local press, that no women
were elected to the Majlis. As expected by many, the Sultan
increased the number of women in the newly appointed Majlis
al-Dawla from nine to 14. End Summary.

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A SUCCESSFUL ELECTION ...
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2. (C) More than one week since the national elections for
the Majlis al-Shura, Omanis are still commenting on how
smoothly the voting process was conducted and the larger than
anticipated turn out of registered voters (ref A). To post's
knowledge, only one losing candidate -- a woman who garnered
relatively few votes -- has filed a grievance with the
government to contest the results in her district, alleging
that two of her competitors spread a rumor that she had
withdrawn from the race. Although the winning candidates are
not, on average, much younger than the membership of the
outgoing Majlis, they are better educated: roughly 60% hold
a bachelor's degree, while another 10% hold a master's degree
or higher (two have earned a Ph.D.). An additional 20%,
approximately, have completed secondary school. This stands
in sharp contrast to claims that many previous Majlis members
were functionally illiterate or close to it. (Note: Of the
70 members of the outgoing Majlis al-Shura who ran for
re-election, 38 were successful. End Note.)

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... BUT NOT PERFECT
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3. (C) Below the surface of the vote, however, a few cracks
are evident. Contacts report that a limited number of voters
in several districts -- perhaps as many as 50 in some heavily
populated areas -- who had participated in the 2003 elections
were turned away from the polls for failing to appear on the
registration lists, even though they should have been
automatically registered to vote in 2007. (Note: Registered
voters for the 2003 elections were not required to
re-register to cast ballots in 2007. End Note.) It appears,
however, that these deletions were caused solely by technical
glitches and did not occur in sufficient number to alter the
outcome of any of the electoral races. Moreover, all Omanis
were able to check in advance whether they were on the
registration rolls by accessing a computer website or
reviewing hard copies of relevant lists posted in local
government offices.


4. (C) Anecdotal evidence indicates that small-scale
vote-buying -- also present during the 2003 elections --
occurred in some districts, but did not decisively influence
any electoral contest. While it is not possible to gauge the
extent of this practice, contacts report that the exchange of
money for votes was overall very limited and firmly resisted
by many candidates. Furthermore, when it did occur, the
exchanges were allegedly for nominal amounts (between USD 15
and 25) and were often initiated by voters -- usually poor
Omanis -- who requested money from a candidate or a "broker."


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TRIBALISM NOT ALWAYS SUPREME
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MUSCAT 00001026 002 OF 003




5. (C) In keeping with past practice, leaders of major
tribal groups gathered together in different areas of Oman
well before the elections to try to reach consensus on which
candidates (presumably from their membership) to support. As
in prior elections, backing from one of these "tribal
alliances" was determinative in many races; a majority of
winning candidates were the consensus choice of the most
important tribes in their districts. (Note: None of the
tribal alliances reportedly threw their weight behind a
female candidate, which may explain why no women were elected
to the Majlis al-Shura. End Note.)


6. (C) More candidates without the backing of large tribal
groups, however, won a seat in the Majlis than in 2003. A
number of prominent tribal sheiks in the al Batinah region,
for example, did not succeed in their electoral bids.
According to contacts, two main factors contributed to this
shift. First, the large tribes overestimated their numbers
and/or their percentage of the registered electorate in some
districts and thus mistakenly thought that their preferred
candidates could coast to victory with little effort.
Second, the loosening of campaign restrictions by the
government allowed energetic candidates without the backing
of the big tribes to significantly broaden their visibility
among voters.

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PUSHING THE LIMITS
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7. (C) Intense campaigning was a key factor in the success
of winning candidates from outside the large tribes. In the
southern city of Salalah, one of the election victors (and
the brother of one of post's Locally Engage Staff Omani
employees) from a relatively small family clan attributed his
win to his fervent campaign work. In the week preceding the
election, he explained, he was busy from morning until late
at night calling at different homes, social events, and cafes
to talk to extended family members, friends and campaign
supporters, as well as their friends and families.


8. (C) Although the government continued to ban large-scale
public campaign events and certain other activities, some
candidates reportedly pushed, and in certain cases exceeded,
the bounds of legally allowable campaigning. A wealthy
supporter of the election winner in Salalah referenced above,
for example, hosted a gathering in his mansion of almost 300
people -- telling invited guests to bring whoever they wanted
along -- to better acquaint them with his candidate (although
he did notify the local elections committee in advance). In
apparent contravention to relevant regulations, a few
candidates printed and distributed brochures, while others
used microphones to address large numbers of people drawn to
public tents set up near the middle of towns. In some cases
the relevant local elections authorities acted to stop
impermissible or questionable activities. But more often
than not, according to contacts, these committees did not
intervene, especially if they received advance notice of the
action in question and it was not a clearly egregious
violation.

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WHERE ARE THE WOMEN?
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9. (U) Since the elections, many Omanis have commented on
their disappointment that no female candidates won their
electoral campaigns. (Note: The government claims that
almost half of those casting votes were women. End Note.)
This has been reflected in the local press. An editorial
writer in the October 29 edition of government-owned Arabic
daily "Oman" stated that, "Democracy is deprived of the
presence of women in the Majlis (al-Shura); in my opinion,
this absence of women will hinder the progress of the
Majlis." An op-ed in independent Arabic daily "Shabiba" on
October 30 asserted that "because the voice of women is
extremely important" to the consultative process, "there must
be a quota for women to guarantee their representation."


10. (U) On November 3, Minister of Social Development Dr.
Sharifa al-Yahya'ee (one of 3 female Omani ministers) told a
gathering of failed women election candidates that her
ministry "is going to do its best in encouraging women to run
successful and organized campaigns in the next Shura
elections, in cooperation with other public and private
entities." In an interview with USG-supported Radio Sawa
(found only on-line in Oman),Raheela al-Riyami -- one of two
women in the outgoing Majlis al-Shura -- urged Omani women
not to be discouraged with the voting results and to continue
their participation in the political process. She also

MUSCAT 00001026 003 OF 003


rejected criticism of the elections, saying that they were
conducted in a fair and transparent manner and reflected the
will of Omani voters.

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A NEW UPPER HOUSE
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11. (SBU) Many Omanis believed that Sultan Qaboos would
react to the failure of women to capture even a single seat
in the Majlis al-Shura by expanding their presence in the
next Majlis al-Dawla (the upper house of Oman's bicameral
consultative body). Their predictions were correct. In the
evening of November 5, the government announced that the
Sultan had appointed a new Majlis al-Dawla of 70 Omanis that
included 14 women, versus 9 of 61 members in the previous
group.


12. (SBU) Eight of the women in the new upper house are
carry-overs from the outgoing Majlis al-Dawla. Of the 14
Ph.D. holders in the incoming membership, eight are female.
Interestingly, from information available to post, three of
the new female members appear to be the only Shi'a in the
Majlis al-Dawla. (Note: Based on family names and other
information, post believes that only two members of the new
Majlis al-Shura are Shi'a. End Note.)

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COMMENT
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13. (C) For two years, post pursued a campaign preparation
program for Omani women under the Middle East Partnership
Initiative (MEPI). About 10-12 months ago, the Omani
government made clear that it was not interested. We can now
righteously claim that this election's disappointing outcome
with respect to female candidates might have been averted had
we been able to conduct the training. Post will look for an
appropriate time, in coordination with MEPI, to again propose
this program.
GRAPPO