BAVARIA'S STOIBER - BEYOND REDEMPTION?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000015

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT: BAVARIA'S STOIBER - BEYOND REDEMPTION?


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION.

REF: 05 Munich 739

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) The political year in Bavaria began with further erosion of
Bavarian Minister-President and CSU Party Chairman Edmund Stoiber's
popularity - and questions about his future. Stoiber's current woes
include allegations that he ordered inquiries into the private life
of a CSU politician critical of him, leading to the resignation of
his chief of staff. Just as it appeared Stoiber had deflected any
lasting damage, he managed to upset the CSU faithful during the CSU
Bundestag Deputies' annual "Wildbad Kreuth" meeting by declaring
that he not only intended to run again in 2008, but remain as
Bavarian Minister-President through 2013. Stoiber's apparent hubris
rekindled the anger that followed his unexpected return to Munich
from Berlin in fall 2005 -- and has created a buzz within the CSU
and Bavarian State Chancellery that Stoiber's days may be numbered
despite the lack of a clear heir apparent. End summary.

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The "Pauli Affair"
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2. (U) Stoiber's latest round of troubles started with the
accusation in late 2006 by Stoiber-critic Gabriele Pauli, the
Christian Social Union (CSU) District Councilor (administrator) of
the city of Fuerth, that Stoiber had ordered inquiries into her
private life. Pauli, following Stoiber's surprise defection from
the grand coalition government and return to Bavaria in late 2005,
had openly expressed her opposition to Stoiber's candidacy for
re-election in 2008, even running for a time a web-site critical of
him. Pauli's latest accusations led to the departure of Stoiber's
Chief of Staff, Michael Hoehenberger, who resigned after admitting
he called one of Pauli's friends asking about her personal life,
while insisting he acted without Stoiber's knowledge. In a move to
put the "Pauli Affair" to rest, Stoiber belatedly agreed to meet
personally with Pauli to patch things up - a meeting set to take
place January 18.

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WILDBAD KREUTH 2007
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3. (U) With the Pauli Affair receding into the background, CSU
party leaders kicked-off their annual strategy retreat at the alpine
resort known as "Wildbad Kreuth" on January 8 with ringing
endorsements of Stoiber: "Stoiber is the uncontested CSU party
chairman" (national CSU Caucus Chairman Peter Ramsauer); and "will
be Bavarian Minister-President well beyond 2008" (CSU Landtag caucus
chairman Joachim Herrmann). While these comments, designed to show
the CSU's solidarity behind the boss, elicited little reaction,
Stoiber's declaration at a press conference on January 10 set off a
media fire-storm: Stoiber said he not only intended to run in 2008,
but remain in power through the end of another term - September

2013.


4. (U) While many in Bavaria had resigned themselves to Stoiber
running again in 2008, the conventional wisdom was that he would
groom a successor in the meantime to whom he would turn over the
reins of power mid-term [following a vote by the Bavarian State
Parliament (Landtag)] - perhaps as early as 2010. His stated plan
to hold on to power through 2013 was interpreted widely as
essentially a declaration that he intends to be Bavaria's
Minister-President for life. This has undone much of the recovery
that followed the upset over his return from Berlin in 2005 (when,
in an effort to gain forgiveness, he told the CSU faithful that he
had "suffered like a dog" -- reftel). The media have played up
Stoiber's ambitions, even drawing parallels with the final days of
Helmut Kohl's chancellorship.

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DEFENSE AND THE CSU
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5. (U) While Stoiber's pronouncement dominated press play from
Wildbad Kreuth, there was other news to emerge from the retreat.
After federal Defense Minister Jung visited Kreuth January 10 to
discuss the future of German military engagement abroad, the CSU
presented a paper stating that crisis management in Europe should be
Germany's first priority and that clearer criteria had to be defined
for German military engagement. For the future, the CSU proposed
two parliamentary votes on military engagement abroad: first, a
general vote about whether to engage; and second, a vote on a
detailed engagement plan.

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ARE STOIBER'S DAYS NUMBERED?
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MUNICH 00000015 002 OF 002




6. (U) Wildbad Kreuth first appeared (at least publicly) like a
Stoiber love-fest, with CSU Landtag Caucus Chairman Herrmann
proposing that the entire caucus sign an appeal for a Stoiber
candidacy in 2008, and five young CSU deputies climbing Germany's
highest mountain to unfurl a Stoiber campaign poster. However,
following Stoiber's statement, the wall of solidarity appears to be
cracking. Respected Landtag President Alois Glueck has cautioned
that elected officials remaining in office too long risk wearing-out
their welcome, and that the future of the CSU's leadership would
have to be reconsidered in due course.


7. (SBU) At Stoiber's New Years reception on January 11, State
Chancellery officials told the Consul General that Stoiber was on
thin political ice, and that Glueck, who had announced his
retirement in 2008, was prepared to replace Stoiber in 2008, if not
before, as a transitional candidate. If Stoiber does step aside,
Glueck is as likely a candidate as any, given the lack of another
obvious heir apparent.

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COMMENT
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8. (SBU) Stoiber is his own worst enemy. His unwelcome return from
Berlin in 2005, his initial unwillingness to meet with Gabriele
Pauli, and now his brash statement of intent to overstay his
political welcome have all conspired to bring his unfavorable rating
among Bavarians to around 60 percent (this despite the CSU having
the support of 54 percent of Bavarians polled). The latest gaffe
may be Stoiber's undoing, although we anticipate he would remain in
office through the conclusion of his present term ending in 2008.
We also note, however, that Stoiber has a history of being the
"Comeback Kid" of Bavarian politics, most recently following his
tail-between-the-legs return from Berlin in 2005. Time and again he
has managed to coax the party leadership to stick with him, even if
reluctantly so. We expect he will play the "suffering dog" again
next week when the CSU Landtag Caucus meets at Kreuth. If
successful, he may prolong the Stoiber-era a little longer.


9. (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin.


10. (U) Previous reporting from Munich is available on our SIPRNET
website at www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/ .

NELSON