SHIV SENA/BJP DEFY EXPECTATIONS, RETAIN CONTROL OF MUMBAI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000081

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR PTER KDEM KISL IN
SUBJECT: SHIV SENA/BJP DEFY EXPECTATIONS, RETAIN CONTROL OF MUMBAI
CITY GOVERNMENT

REF: A) MUMBAI 38; B) MUMBAI 39; C) MUMBAI 31

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Defying nay-sayers, the Shiv Sena/BJP alliance retained
control of the Mumbai Municipal Corporation in the February 1
elections (ref A). The alliance will return to power with a
smaller majority, however. The result cemented Uddhav
Thackeray's claim to succeed his aging father and Shiv Sena
founder Bal Thackeray as leader of the regional party. The
results showed that the Shiv Sena still has a strong grass-roots
following and a formidable election machine that gets out the
vote. The results will also likely lay to rest any expectation
that the Shiv Sena, embroiled in a succession crisis and
struggling to stay on message with Mumbai's evolving electorate,
will disappear from western India's political scene any time
soon. Congress and NCP bickered to the end and failed to join
forces in their effort to upend Shiv Sena/BJP, which has ruled
the city for the past 14 years. Many Muslim and Dalit voters
turned away from Congress, yet attempts to create a "third
front" failed as their protest votes were fragmented among many
small parties. Attempts to mobilize the middle and wealthier
classes, who complain about the appalling state of public life
in Mumbai yet don't vote, also failed. As in the past, slum
dwellers and other urban poor decided the outcome, while the
city's better off avoided the polls. Nobody expects the poor
governance of India's largest city to improve much as a result
of the elections, although the economic momentum of the city is
so strong that Mumbai will continue to modernize rapidly despite
the lack of good governance. End comment.

BJP/Shiv Sena Returns to Power in Mumbai
--------------


2. (SBU) The BJP/Shiv Sena alliance has emerged as the winner of
the February 1 elections to the Mumbai Municipal Corporation
elections. The parties, which have ruled the city for the past
14 years, won 112 of 227 seats. The two parties will create a
majority with the support of six independent candidates who
pledged their allegiance after the results were published.
Congress finished a distant second with 71 seats, and the
National Congress Party (NCP) third with 14. Turnout was about
45 percent, a normal figure for the city elections. The
alliance also took control of Nagpur from a Congress/NCP
coalition.


3. (U) A closer look at the results shows that the Shiv Sena/BJP
victory was not all that resounding. The winning alliance has
25 fewer seats in the corporation than in the outgoing
government. Congress won 25 percent of the popular vote,
followed by Shiv Sena's 21 percent. Together Congress and NCP
won 36 percent, whereas the Shiv Sena/BJP alliance won just
under 30 percent. The disconnect between votes and seats is
largely due to the failure of Congress and NCP to put up a
united front against the Sena-BJP alliance. Congress/NCP have a
coalition at the state level, yet fielded individual candidates
in the city election, splitting their vote to the advantage of
Sena and BJP which fielded a joint candidate in each of the
voting districts in the city. Such discrepancies between
popular vote and seat distribution are not uncommon in India's
first-past-the-post parliamentary voting system.

Uddhav: The Big Winner
--------------


4. (SBU) Shiv Sena working president Uddhav Thackeray, son and
anointed heir to party founder Bal Thackeray, is the big winner
in the elections. The younger Thackeray has been routinely
criticized, both inside and outside the Shiv Sena, as being
detached, uncharismatic and ineffective. His father's bedrock
support led to the defection of many of the Sena's most talented
leaders in recent years, including party strongman and former
state chief minister Nayaran Rane and Thackeray's nephew Raj
Thackeray, whom many viewed as the more deserving heir to
succeed the aging and ailing Bal Thackeray. During the
campaigning, however, Uddhav Thackeray demonstrated hitherto
unknown campaigning and organizational skills. The result has
solidified his hold on the party and his aspiration to be the

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legitimate political heir to his father.


5. (SBU) The result will also no doubt reinvigorate the Shiv
Sena, which has been hit by a succession crisis, high level
defections, and an evolving electorate no longer in tune with
much of the party's anti-immigrant ideology. Shiv Sena won the
vote by mobilizing its core constituency of middle and lower
class Marathi speaking voters, and by the support it received
from Gujarati and North Indian higher caste Hindu voters who
back the BJP and its Hindutva ideology. By most accounts,
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's campaigning in the city
(ref C) did not affect the outcome although most commentators
believed it helped the ruling alliance's efforts to reach out to
their core constituencies. The desertions of Raj Thackeray and
Rane weakened the party's support far less than many observers
had expected.

Sena "Goon Squads" Get out the Vote
--------------


6. (SBU) The Shiv Sena also resorted to its timed-test
strong-arm tactics to get out the vote. Mumbai Police
Commissioner A.N. Roy told the Consul General that the party had
placed its feared grass-roots cadre -- some observers call them
goon squads -- "literally in every lane" to ensure that people
went to the polls. (Note: Their work was facilitated by the
fact that everyone who votes in India gets an indelible ink
marking on their right index finger, a practice aimed at
preventing people from voting more than once. End note). Roy
said the police expected the worse from the Shiv Sena, as "their
survival was at stake." An unprecedented number of officers were
present on the streets to prevent violence. In the end the
elections were peaceful.

Shiv Sena Bucks Anti-Incumbency Feelings
--------------


7. (SBU) The party managed to buck strong anti-incumbency
feelings, as many voters view the existing city government as
incompetent and corrupt. Uddhav Thackeray received wide praise
for offering a fresh slate of candidates (he denied tickets to
52 sitting councilors of the Shiv Sena). Thackeray cleansed the
candidate list mainly to pay back his closest supporters, yet he
and the Shiv Sena astutely sold the action as a move to clean up
the corporation.

Congress and NCP Bicker, And Lose
--------------


8. (SBU) Shortly before the election, Congress and NCP abandoned
their intention to form a seat-sharing alliance amidst much
public bickering. Several contacts told us that the infighting
caused Congress/NCP to lose the election. In any case it
greatly divided the opposition vote. Both Maharashtra Chief
Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh (Congress) and NCP President Nabab
Malik publicly admitted that the failure to cooperate
splintering the so-called secular or anti-Hindutva vote.


9. (SBU) The strife between Congress and the NCP at the local
level is not expected to translate into problems between the two
parties at either the state or national level. Several contacts
have told us that tacticians on both sides were ready to
sacrifice the Mumbai elections to higher political purposes.
Others said the two parties saw the elections as a side show
that has no bearing on their coalition that runs the state
government. Many observers believe that Deshmukh, generally
considered to be a weak, ineffectual chief minister, fears the
rise of Rane, who campaigned vigorously and hoped to use a
strong Congress showing to fortify his claim to more leadership
responsibility at the state level. According to this logic,
Deshmukh allowed a train wreck to happen because it weakened his
party rival. The NCP saw advantages to avoiding cooperation in
Mumbai so it could battle Congress head-to-head elsewhere in the
state. National NCP President and Union Agriculture Minister
Sharad Pawar generally avoided the fray in Mumbai, and focused
on helping his nephew win a seat in Pune, where the NCP upset
Congress and became the single largest party for the first time.
None of our contacts believe that Pawar's position is weakened

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because of the Mumbai vote, with some pointing to Pune, closer
to his power base, as an example of his ability to wield
influence in Maharashtra where and when he chooses to do so.

Congress Loses Support of Many Dalits, Muslims
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10. (SBU) Congress also lost the support of many Dalits and
Muslims, both traditional vote banks for the party. Voters from
both groups had grown increasingly alienated at what they saw
was Congress' movement away from their core interests (ref B).
A "third front" failed to materialize because the protest vote
was frittered away amongst a crowded slate of parties and
candidates. The Samajwadi Party (SP),supported by Muslims and
the Dalit parties RPI and BSP, won fewer seats than in 2002.

Jury Still Out on Raj Thackeray
--------------


11. (SBU) The vote marked Raj Thackeray's first foray into an
election since forming his own party, the Maharashtra Navnirman
Sena (MNS). Most observers felt that his performance was
disappointing. He failed to lure many supporters away from the
Sena, and his still thin leadership cadre and lack of solid
party organization were readily visible during the campaign.
Many voters viewed his party as a personality cult devoid of
significant ideological substance. Nonetheless, his party did
win 7 seats in Mumbai and in city corporations in the key
provincial cities of Thane, Nashik, Pune and Nagpur. While few
doubt his political talents, most commentators now feel that the
jury remains out on his long term political chances.

The Poor Vote As The Rich Complain and Avoid the Polls
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12. (SBU) The media gave widespread coverage to the
dissatisfaction among the educated middle-classes and richer
voters and their growing desire for an city administration that
could finally address the appalling state of public life in the
city. Several new NGOs tried to animate the city's well-off to
vote. In the end, however, it was business as usual as slum
dwellers and the lower working classes voted while the better
off segments of the city largely ignored the election.

Comment
--------------


13. (SBU) The victorious alliance will return to power somewhat
weakened, yet the election showed that the many predictions of
Shiv Sena's demise were premature. Uddhav Thackeray emerged as
a serious leader who can mobilize and invigorate the party's
large grassroots following in Mumbai and other cities of
Maharashtra. Nobody realistically expects Uddhav to change the
culture of the municipal corporation, however, which has served
as a pork barrel for the city's vote bank politics and a source
of enrichment for corrupt politicians of all colors. Hence it
is unlikely that the governance of the city will improve, which
is not good news for India's largest city and its crumbing,
outdated infrastructure that cannot support the demand for city
services caused by continued inward migration and by rising
incomes. Not all is bad for the city, however, as other bodies
-- the state government and public agencies -- have a big say in
the city's development. In addition, the economic momentum of
the city is so strong that it will continue to modernize rapidly
despite the lack of good governance. End comment.
OWEN