BJP, SHIV SENA FACE TROUBLES HEADING INTO MUMBAI ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUMBAI 000039

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SUBJECT: BJP, SHIV SENA FACE TROUBLES HEADING INTO MUMBAI ELECTIONS

REF: A: MUMBAI 38; B: MUMBAI 31

Summary
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1. (SBU) Since 1992 a "saffron alliance" of Shiv Sena and the
BJP has controlled the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC),
Mumbai's main municipal body. By all accounts, both parties
will struggle to maintain power in the BMC in the elections
scheduled for February 1 (ref A). The Shiv Sena was devastated
by the defection of party leaders Narayan Rane and Raj Thackeray
in 2005. Shiv Sena and BJP both have considerable
organizational strengths, however, and Sena has attempted to
regroup under the leadership of Uddhav Thackeray, the son of
party boss Balsaheb Thackeray. Bal's nephew Raj has formed his
own political party and is playing a spoiler role, looking to
position himself for future elections. End summary.

Shiv Sena's Three-Way Split
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2. (SBU) Shiv Sena, the dominant partner in the "saffron
alliance" is facing what many are describing as its day of
judgment on February 1, the date of the BMC elections (ref A).
Longtime boss Bal Thackeray is fading from power due to age and
illness, and many observers describe the defections of Rane and
Raj as having split the party into three factions. Rane and his
followers joined the rival Congress party and helped Congress
make big gains in state by-elections. If Congress achieves
similar results in the BMC elections, observers say Rane will
have emerged as a potential rival to Maharashtra Chief Minister
Vilasrao Deshmukh.

Raj Thackeray's Role
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3. (SBU) The defection of Raj Thackeray, Bal Thackeray's
charismatic nephew, in late 2005 gave a further blow to the
party. Raj Thackeray has formed his own party, the Maharashtra
Navnirman Sena (MNS). Analysts describe the MNS as a party
without any particular ideology that is primary a vehicle for
Raj's political ambitions. The party is still young, has no
broad base or electoral machinery, and Raj had not been able to
attract as large a cadre of talented party workers with
leadership qualities as he had hoped. Nonetheless, observers in
Mumbai say Raj has little to lose, and suggest that he is
positioning himself for an influential role in future elections.
His primary strength is his ability to present himself as a
fresh alternative to the BJP/Sena and Congress/NCP coalitions
that have traditionally vied for power in Maharashtra.


4. (SBU) Raj has made efforts to delineate himself from the
Hindutva and Maharashtra-first themes that were championed by
the BJP-Sena. He paints himself as a more inclusive leader and
has reached out to Muslims, Dalits, and the growing population
of migrants from other Indian states. His campaign message has
been "Give me a chance," and analysts say that despite his
previous high-level involvement with Shiv Sena, voters do see
him as a separate entity and a fresh voice. Nonetheless, the
MNS is viewed as a one-man army that is unlikely to win many
seats. Anything more than a handful of seats, however, should
establish the MNS on Mumbai's political scene and position
Thackeray well for future state and national elections, which is
his probable long-term strategy. Mumbai's coalition arithmetic
poses a serious challenge to the MNS, however. No serious
commentator believes that the party can ever gain power without
a serious partner. The most obvious alliance partner, BJP, is
unlikely to sever ties with Shiv Sena until Bal Thackeray dies,
which may be some time off.

BJP's Woes
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5. (SBU) The BJP is also facing major problems in the BMC
elections. In 2006, the Mumbai branch of the party suffered two
major setbacks with the murder of party hopeful Pramod Mahajan
and a car accident that sent party strategist Gopinath Munde to
the hospital for several weeks. Observers say the absence of
these two men has left the BJP without direction. As outlined
in ref B, BJP leaders are planning to use Gujarat Chief Minister

MUMBAI 00000039 002 OF 002


Narendra Modi as their star campaigner in the BMC elections, but
it is unclear what impact Modi will have.

A New Generation
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6. (SBU) Uddhav Thackeray has been widely criticized for his
leadership of Shiv Sena, particularly in comparison with his
more charismatic cousin Raj. Rajiv Khandekar, an editor with
the Marathi-language newspaper "Lok Satta" told us that Uddhav
used the past year to consolidate control of the party by
placing loyalists in key positions. Uddhav has also replaced
many incumbents in the upcoming elections with new candidates.
Khandekar says this may be costly in the short-term, but it will
ensure the party's survival under Uddhav's leadership and it
should reinvigorate its image. To combat the negative publicity
of the earlier defections, Bal Thackeray has returned to a more
active campaign role.


7. (SBU) Mumbai voters are increasingly frustrated with the lack
of progress with basic services and high levels of corruption in
the BMC. After 15 years in power, BJP-Sena are likely to be
held responsible for the BMC's failings. Khandekar told poloff
that the parties have responded by returning to Hindutva themes
and that several incidents last year provided a big lift to
BJP-Sena's fortunes. He pointed to the large gathering of
Muslim youths in South Mumbai in March, the riots that occurred
in July and November, and the railway bombings on July 11 as
events that frightened Mumbai voters and drew many back to
BJP-Sena. BJP member Ashish Shelar confirmed the importance of
security to Mumbai voters, saying his party intended to ask "Who
has shown they will protect Hindus in Mumbai?"


8. (SBU) Other observers suggest that BJP and Shiv Sena's return
to Hindutva themes stem from difficulties finding messages with
a broader appeal. The parties made attempts to reach out to a
wider audience in recent years, but they have largely abandoned
these efforts in the current election. Khandekar said that
although Marathi speakers are declining as a percentage of
Mumbai's population, their high voter-turnout rate makes them a
still-important constituency. With this in mind, the Sena
leadership has returned to strategies such as questioning
whether Muslims deserve minority status in India, demanding
residency permits for Mumbai, and urging people to speak only
Marathi. Congress and NCP have countered by running many
Marathi-speaking candidates of their own and appear to be hoping
to neutralize the issue. Most interlocutors we spoke with had
been predicting a Congress/NCP victory, but since these parties
were unable to cooperate prior to the election, many now think
that BJP-Sena's organizational strength may tip the election in
their favor.


9. (SBU) Anant Gadgil of Congress expressed fear to poloff that
BJP-Sena will instigate acts of communal violence prior to the
election in order to sway voters in their direction. Most
analysts were doubtful about the likelihood of such acts
occurring, but the riots of in July and September 2006
demonstrate that even minor offences can spark violence in the
region. There have been reports of some Sena violence directed
against MNS campaign workers, but so far no major incidents have
occurred.
OWEN