MFA DEPARTMENT DIRECTOR ON IRAN, AFGHANISTAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 005879

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017
TAGS: PREL IR AF RS
SUBJECT: MFA DEPARTMENT DIRECTOR ON IRAN, AFGHANISTAN,
PAKISTAN

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.
4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: In a December 18 meeting, MFA Second Asia
Department Director Maryasov reviewed the results of Iranian
FM Mottaki's December 13-14 trip to Moscow, noting bilateral
agreements on trade and cooperation, confirming the sale of
130 civilian aircraft was possible but premature, and
reiterating that Russia was not interested in creating a gas
cartel with Iran. Maryasov said FM Lavrov's meeting with
Mottaki broke no new ground on Iran's nuclear program, and
Lavrov told the Ambassador in a December 19 meeting that he
pushed for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment and claim a
"victory" with its securing of Bushehr's fuel (septel).
Mottaki also discussed Iran's position on key regional
issues, including Afghanistan, Iraq, MEPP, and Lebanon.
Maryasov agreed to look into the case of Robert Levinson, an
Amcit that is missing in Iran. On other issues, Maryasov
outlined Russia's plans to increase its bilateral and
multilateral assistance to Afghanistan, including by working
with NATO, and expressed Russia's concern with the growing
influence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. End
summary.

FM Mottaki's Visit Yields Bilateral Dividends
--------------


2. (C) In a December 18 meeting, MFA Second Asia Department
Director Aleksandr Maryasov characterized as productive
Iranian FM Mottaki's December 13-14 visit for a meeting of
the bilateral commission on trade and cooperation. He said
that Mottaki and Rosatom Director Kiriyenko, who heads the
commission on the GOR side, signed a long-term memorandum of
understanding on trade and cooperation and an agreement on
tourism. In the next few months, another agreement would be
signed on the mutual protection of economic investments.


3. (C) Maryasov added that the bilateral commission would
also facilitate joint business projects in the fields of
energy and transportation, including railway and aviation.
He noted that a number of business contracts would likely be
signed at the next commission meeting in 2008 in Tehran.
Maryasov commented that "it is only natural" that Iran has
shown increased interest in expanding economic ties with
Russia, as Iran "has largely been cut off from European --
not to mention the U.S. -- markets." He stressed that the
GOR did not intend to direct business deals to Iran (as
Mottaki had sought) but the trade should be based on mutual
interest and driven by market forces.


4. (C) When asked about press reports that Iran may
purchase 130 civilian aircraft from Russia, Maryasov said the
sale is still under review, although he noted that Russian
companies are interested in completing such a deal. (Note:
Mottaki visited the Tupolev plant in Kazan during his visit.)
We noted that the U.S. would follow closely the possible
transaction, given sanctions implications. Maryasov
underscored that the type of aircraft under discussion was
strictly used for civilian purposes and reiterated that
transactions would be in line with UN resolutions and
international regimes.


5. (C) On Iranian press reports about the possible creation
of a gas cartel similar to OPEC, Maryasov confirmed Iran's
proposal but stressed that the Iranians were told flatly that
Russia was not interested. Such a cartel would "dictate
demands" to consumer countries, and Russia is in favor of
"balanced relations" with gas suppliers and consumers.

Mottaki Regurgitates Official Position on Nuclear Program
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Maryasov told us that Mottaki's separate meeting with
FM Lavrov focused on Iran's nuclear program. Lavrov
commended Iran for its continued cooperation with the IAEA
and its intention to resolve the remaining three (out of six)
issues raised in the IAEA plan, but emphasized the need to
address outstanding UNSC concerns about uranium enrichment
and other activities. In a December 19 lunch with the
Ambassador, Lavrov confirmed that he encouraged Mottaki to
take advantage of the "recent favorable conditions" --
particularly the GOR's December 16 initial delivery of
nuclear fuel to the Bushehr plant -- to suspend its uranium
enrichment and claim "victory" by having secured nuclear fuel
and developed nuclear technology.


7. (C) Maryasov stressed that the GOR has been consistent in
its message to Iranian leaders -- from Putin's and Lavrov's
October trips to Tehran to Iranian nuclear negotiator
Jalili's December visit to Moscow -- that Iran could preserve
rhetorically its sovereign right to continue uranium

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enrichment, but needed to suspend enrichment immediately in
order to address the outstanding concerns of the
international community. However, Maryasov said that Mottaki
gave Lavrov the "usual reply" that Iran should not be
deprived of its right to develop nuclear energy and only
agreed (again) to take Russia's suggestion under advisement.

Mottaki on International Issues
--------------


8. (C) Mottaki also discussed with Lavrov a number of other
regional issues.

-- Afghanistan: Mottaki said Iran was worried about President
Karzai's conciliatory gestures toward some members of the
Taliban, stressing that such a policy was "dangerous."
Instead, Karzai should be ratcheting up the fight against
Taliban forces. Mottaki urged Lavrov not to believe "those
who are saying" Iran is conducting negotiations with the
Taliban; "the Taliban is our enemy."

-- Iraq: Mottaki observed that terrorist activity had
declined in Iraq and noted a "good level" of cooperation
between Iran and the U.S. on Iraq, expressing readiness to
continue its dialogue with the U.S. Mottaki added that Iran
was committed to supporting the Maliki government in its
efforts to achieve national reconciliation and political
stability.

-- MEPP: Mottaki reiterated Iran's position that the
Annapolis conference was not in the interest of Arab
countries. Maryasov said Lavrov rejected this position,
arguing that Annapolis represented one more step to the
resolution of the existing problems in the region and
highlighted Syria's participation in the conference as an
illustration of the importance of the conference. Mottaki
responded that Iran was very disappointed that Syria took
part in the conference. Maryasov said Mottaki took on board
Lavrov's request that Iran help moderate Hamas' "aggressive
behavior."

-- Lebanon: Lavrov told Mottaki it "would be wise" if Iran
encouraged all political forces in Lebanon, including
Hezbollah, to reach a political consensus and agree on a
compromise candidate for the position of president. Mottaki
said Iran was already working in this direction, but stressed
that the situation is very difficult.

Levinson Case
--------------


9. (C) We reiterated our request for GOR assistance in
obtaining the whereabouts of missing American citizen Robert
Levinson, noting that thus far Iran has shown no interest in
cooperating with the Swiss and the Levinson family. Maryasov
undertook to look into the matter.

Russian Assistance to Afghanistan
--------------


10. (C) Maryasov agreed that, despite tensions in other
areas, Afghanistan represented one issue where there was
strong potential for deeper Russian cooperation with the U.S.
and NATO. Maryasov reviewed the possible channels through
which Russia could funnel its increased assistance to
Afghanistan.

-- Bilateral assistance: Russia is ready to provide increased
military assistance to the Afghan National Army (ANA),but
the details of this assistance would be discussed when the
Afghan Defense Minister visits Moscow for talks. Maryasov
noted that Afghanistan has yet to respond to Russia's
invitation with a proposed date. Without going into details,
Maryasov added that Russia was considering a resumption of
its assistance that was suspended in 2006 (apparently because
the Karzai government was not fully utilizing the
assistance). Maryasov confirmed that Russian narcotics
liaison officers are already working in Afghanistan and are
providing Afghan drug officers training on counternarcotics
work. He also confirmed that Russia is discussing with
Afghanistan several investment projects, including the
building of a thermal station and the reconstruction of the
Solong tunnel.

-- NATO: Russia is interested in coordinating with NATO on
the delivery of military equipment and goods through Russian
and Central Asian territory to ISAF, noting that only some
technical and legal issues had to be resolved. Maryasov
added that Russia would also be willing to work with NATO to
provide the ANA with high-quality Russian weaponry.


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-- CSTO: When asked about the possibility of Russia and NATO
working together on counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan,
Maryasov said the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) was the preferred mechanism for Russia. He noted the
involvement of Pakistan and Afghanistan in the CSTO's
Operation Channel drug interdiction and eradication efforts
last year.

-- SCO: Maryasov confirmed that Russia was also interested in
increasing the activity of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) in Afghanistan. Specifically, SCO was
exploring the possibility of providing assistance in
counter-terrorism, counternarcotics, and economic
development. Maryasov told us that SCO would hold an
international conference on Afghanistan, and participants
would include SCO members and observers (including India and
Iran),with major donors (including the U.S.) and other
international organizations also invited. Maryasov said the
SCO was still working on a date and location for the
conference.


11. (C) Noting that almost all of the CSTO members are also
members of SCO, we sought clarification on the delineation of
responsibilities between CSTO and SCO. Maryasov explained
that SCO, which was created to help resolve border disputes
among member states, was mainly devoted to political and
economic development. CSTO, on the other hand, is
essentially a political-military organization.

MFA on Domestic Politics in Afghanistan
--------------


12. (C) Maryasov noted that Afghan political leaders are
increasingly more focused on the upcoming national elections
and commented that the relationship between Karzai and the
United Front has become more complicated. Maryasov argued
that the United Front was formed as a "constructive
opposition," providing Karzai with reasonable proposals on
creating more efficient state institutions and bringing
different nationalities into the government to create a more
balanced political system. The United Front leaders tell
Russia that Karzai ignored these proposals. Maryasov said
Russia has encouraged Karzai to reconsider some of the United
Front suggestions, as the United Front leaders are only
trying to strengthen (and not weaken) Karzai's governing
capacity. Maryasov took aim at Karzai, noting that Russia
has the impression that Karzai would rather work with
moderate Taliban than with the United Front.


13. (C) Maryasov maintained that international efforts
should be focused not only on increasing the capacity of the
ANA, but on providing significantly more financial and
logistical assistance to local governments. He attributed
the Taliban's strong and growing presence in the provinces to
weak local institutions (which receive virtually no support
from the central government) and a dramatic change in Taliban
strategy to win over local inhabitants and tribal leaders.
The Taliban have adopted a more "mild and friendly" approach,
and Maryasov told us that the Taliban has detailed this
approach in a written code of conduct for Taliban members.
The Taliban have also proven adept at promoting their
"successes" in establishing order and stability in
Taliban-controlled cities.

Pakistan
--------------


13. (C) Maryasov noted Musharraf's recent positive steps to
restore political stability to Pakistan, and said Russia was
pleased that both opposition parties led by Nawaz Sharif and
Benazir Bhutto would take part in the upcoming elections.
Maryasov underscored that a "dangerous situation" was
nonetheless developing in the country, pointing to the
official establishment of a Taliban movement last week, with
its stated goal of removing all foreign military forces from
the country. Maryasov said that the Taliban is
consolidating its forces "on both sides of the border
(between Afghanistan and Pakistan)." Given the complicated
domestic situation in Pakistan, Maryasov concluded that
Musharraf had done reasonably well and warned against
discounting the Pakistani President's contribution to
fighting terrorists.

BURNS