UNITED RUSSIA ACCEPTS MEDVEDEV AS CANDIDATE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005849

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM RS
SUBJECT: UNITED RUSSIA ACCEPTS MEDVEDEV AS CANDIDATE FOR
PRESIDENT; PUTIN AS PRIME MINISTER


Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reason: 1.4 (d).


1. (C) Summary: The 511 delegates at the pro-Kremlin United
Russia party's December 17 party congress performed to
expectations, when they chose First Deputy Prime Minister
Medvedev as their candidate for President. Putin confounded
the expectations of some commentators by agreeing, after a
week of silence, to become Prime Minister when Medvedev wins
the presidential elections on March 2. United Russia's
congress continued the leadership succession process with no
discussion of Medvedev's candidacy, references to Putin as
"national leader," and unanimity on every matter brought to
vote except, interestingly, Medvedev's candidacy itself,
where one convention delegation used the secret ballot to
vote "no." On the organizational front, United Russia used
the congress to attempt to join its party activities with its
work in the Duma, and it re-shuffled some of the leadership
positions to reflect in some cases the success of regional
leaders in winning votes in the December 2 Duma elections.
The party's renewed leadership was scheduled on December 18
to continue discussing Duma committee chairmanships and the
presidential campaign. End summary.

Elite in Attendance
--------------


2. (SBU) The high point of the first part of the October 1 -2
pro-Kremlin United Russia party's eighth convention was
Putin's decision to head the party's Duma electoral list.
The second part of the convention took place on December 17,
steps from the Kremlin, and was attended by virtually all of
the country's political elite. In addition to 511 party
delegates, about two thousand guests attended the congress,
among them Ukraine's Yanukovich and political leaders from
Central Asia. All Kremlin-friendly political commentators
were available for the cameras during the frequent
intermissions, including Gleb Pavlovskiy, Aleskey Pushkov,
Andrannik Migranyan, Vyacheslav Nikonov, Mikhail Leontiev,
and Valeriy Fadeev. This time around, the party logo behind
the dais made no reference to Plan Putin. It featured only
the phrase "All-Russian Political Party United Russia -
Eighth Congress."


3. (SBU) On the dais when the congress began were United
Russia Chairman Gryzlov, Tatarstan President Shamiev, Moscow
Mayor Luzhkov, and Minister for Emergency Situations Shoigu.
After a fanfare, they were joined by Putin who, with
candidate-nominee Dmitriy Medvedev in tow and to a standing
but restrained ovation, walked from the back to the stage.
Gryzlov opened what he termed the second half of the eighth
congress by briefly reviewing United Russia's December 2
election success, which he attributed to "national leader
Vladimir Putin."

Putin Nominates Medvedev
--------------


4. (SBU) Putin followed with a very truncated version of his
standard stump speech. After a thumbnail sketch of the chaos
of the '90s, he described United Russia's Duma victory as a
"convincing" one, in which an "absolute majority of Russian
citizens" had supported the party, and signaled that the
party is open to "dialogue with constructive opposition."
With the Duma victory, Putin said, it was important to move
forward, and for that reason he had insisted that the new
Duma begin work on December 24. Among the outstanding issues
to be addressed, Putin said, were inflation, which the
government had not succeeded in controlling. As a result, he
proposed that salaries of government employees be increased
14 percent as of February 1, instead of the 7 percent planned
for September 1. Putin proposed as well a military pay
increase of 18 percent in two stages beginning February 1,
and a similar increase for pensioners and families.


5. (SBU) Putin used his speech to somewhat amplify earlier
criticism of United Russia. The party, he said, "must
change," it must rid itself of "people who do not belong."
Turning his attention to Medvedev, Putin argued that the
First Deputy Prime Minister had been endorsed by "parties of
various ideologies," before describing their close personal
relationship and noting how Medvedev had grown from being a
lawyer into a "superb administrator." Putin "recommended" his
nomination and, after what may have been intended to be a
dramatic pause, told the audience to applause that he was
ready to serve as Prime Minister if Medvedev wins, "without
changing the responsibilities of the President or those of
the Prime Minister." The latter phrase was no doubt inserted
in order to quiet rumors that Putin might use United Russia's
constitutional majority to create a parliamentary system.

Gryzlov Seconds and Medvedev Accepts

--------------


6. (SBU) Gryzlov seconded Putin's nomination, praising Putin
along the way for his personal contribution to the success of
United Russia, and reminding delegates in advance of the vote
on Medvedev that they "must remember all that they owe"
Putin. Gryzlov highlighted the need to continue the war on
poverty and corruption. While not as critical as Putin, he
agreed that the "party must change" and suggested that two
United Russia initiatives, "a professional team for the
country" and "a school of Russian politics," could foster
that change. In an effort to make Medvedev seem like a
consensus candidate, Gryzlov noted that United Russia had
conducted "consultations with three other parties" before
endorsing Medvedev.


7. (SBU) Medvedev's speech accepting Putin's nomination was
very brief. Tellingly, Medvedev prominently tied his fate to
Putin's, telling the delegates that he could envisage his
candidacy only with Putin still in government, and that he
had thought it "very important" that Putin would lead the
government. "I am sincerely pleased," Medvedev
finished,"that (Putin) has accepted my offer" to continue to
work for the good of the country.



8. (SBU) Discussion of Medvedev's candidacy was sidelined by
delegate Gennadiy Kotelnikov, who proposed that a vote be
held immediately on the nomination. Kotelnikov's proposal
carried and, in the secret ballot that followed, only one
delegate voted against Medvedev. Medvedev, in his brief
acceptance speech, thanked the party for its trust and urged
delegates to use "this opportunity that is given countries
only once every one hundred years" to "make Russia stronger
and build an effective civil society for all its citizens."
"Together we will be victorious," he concluded.

Party Changes and The New Duma
--------------


9. (SBU) Putin did not re-appear after the vote for Medvedev.
The rest of the congress was used to approve changes to the
party's structure and leadership that, it was hoped, would
allow it to play a more active role in drafting legislation,
which in the last Duma often came out of the Presidential
Administration, as well as to make the party better equipped
to keep citizens in the regions informed of its legislative
work. Among the notable personnel changes: those regional
leaders who delivered the best results for United Russia were
rewarded with places on the Higher Council. Among the
beneficiaries were Chechnya's Kadyrov, Ingushetia's
Zvyazikov, Penza Governor Bochkarev, Kabardino-Balkyria's
Kanukov, Tuva's Kara-ool, North Ossetia's Mamurov, and
Adyghea's Tkhakushinov, all of whom delivered from 72 to 99
percent of the vote to United Russia in the December 2
elections.


10. (SBU) On December 18, United Russia's new leadership was
scheduled to hold its first meeting in advance of the
December 24 inaugural Duma session, where it is expected that
the Duma Speaker and Deputy Speaker assignments will be
announced. The December 18 session is presumably devoted to
a continuing discussion of Duma committee chairman and deputy
chairman assignments, in addition to strategy for the
presidential campaign, which will begin in earnest after the
new year.


11. (C) Comment: The December 17 Congress had none of the
drama of its October 1 - 2 predecessor, when Putin's
appearance on the dais produced a ripple of excitement, and
his announcement that he would head the party list, a
spontaneous and enthusiastic standing ovation. Anxiety about
a future without Putin has been succeeded this time around by
certainty that Putin is here to stay. The frequent, cloying
invocations of Putin by Gryzlov and Medvedev; the unanimous
votes on nearly every question; the absence of even
perfunctory, discussion; and the formality of the March
election that will make Medvedev President are all
disturbingly reminiscent of old ways of doing business here.
BURNS