Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MOSCOW5845
2007-12-18 13:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:
ROSNEFT'S LEADERSHIP RUMORS
how-toVZCZCXRO4849 PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHMO #5845/01 3521316 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 181316Z DEC 07 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5894 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005845
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, FOR EEB/ESC/IEC GALLOGLY AND WRIGHT
EUR/CARC, SCA (GALLAGHER, SUMAR)
DOE FOR HARBERT, HEGBORG, EKIMOFF
DOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON PREL RS
SUBJECT: ROSNEFT'S LEADERSHIP RUMORS
REF: MOSCOW 5835
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005845
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, FOR EEB/ESC/IEC GALLOGLY AND WRIGHT
EUR/CARC, SCA (GALLAGHER, SUMAR)
DOE FOR HARBERT, HEGBORG, EKIMOFF
DOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON PREL RS
SUBJECT: ROSNEFT'S LEADERSHIP RUMORS
REF: MOSCOW 5835
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) Summary: A recent shuffle in the top ranks of
Rosneft, rumored to have been engineered by its Chairman Igor
Sechin, has spurred speculation that CEO Sergey Bogdanchikov
may be on his way out. If true, the company's plans and
future may depend as much on politics as the company's plans
and outlook. End summary.
--------------
BOGDANCHIKOV ON HIS WAY OUT?
--------------
2. (C) Control of Rosneft, Russia's leading oil producer, is
a favorite topic of political speculation, as Deputy Head of
the Presidential Administration Igor Sechin is Rosneft's
chairman of the board. Recent resignations of three vice
presidents and rumors of further resignations to come have
led to theories that Rosneft CEO Sergey Bogdanchikov is
himself on the way out. Such a move would, one theory goes,
make room for Sechin, who may want the CEO job himself as a
golden parachute.
3. (C) The most benign explanation for the shuffle at the top
of Rosneft came from ExxonMobil Russia's new president, Steve
Terni, who told us recently that the changes may have simply
been intended to bring in more competent leaders. But nearly
all analysts and journalists covering the story saw political
machinations behind it.
4. (C) Former Deputy Energy Minister and now energy
consultant Vladimir Milov told us December 14th that Sechin
was indeed behind the removal of the VPs, who were
Bogdanchikov associates. He claimed to have direct knowledge
of a contentious conflict between Bogdanchikov and Sechin,
who were previously allies. He said the firings were
"Sechin's way of letting Bogdanchikov know that Sechin is
still relevant."
5. (C) Although Bogdanchikov told the Ambassador this week
(reftel) he did not expect major changes in the oil sector in
2008, most analysts believe further consolidation is
inevitable as the state further tightens its control.
According to Milov, state oil transport monopoly Transneft
would soon be merged with Rosneft, and, perhaps,
Surgutneftegaz, to form a true state-owned oil sector giant.
Milov believed Bogdanchikov would stay on until that time,
when Transneft CEO Nikolay Tokarev, reportedly a Putin
insider from Dresden days, would lead the new company, with
Surgutneftegaz president Vladimir Bogdanov, another Putin
ally, as his deputy.
--------------
OR IS SECHIN LEAVING?
--------------
6. (C) Even before the latest developments of Russia's
leadership succession, rumors had circulated that Sechin was
the one on his way out or was keeping his head down in the
wake of press allegations he was behind a "redistribution" of
assets of businessmen out of favor with the Kremlin. Milov
said he believes Sechin is done at the Kremlin, but that he
doesn't have a clear place to go.
7. (C) Vladimir Konovalov, Executive Director of the
Petroleum Advisory Forum, the association of "western" oil
companies in Russia, told us December 17th that he believes
the rumors of Sechin's imminent departure from the scene were
actually started by the now departed Rosneft VPs, at the
behest of Bogdanchikov. According to Konovalov, there is a
fear in Rosneft that FSB head and Sechin ally Nikolay
Patrushev would like to fill Rosneft's leadership with his
own people. Konovalov said the fact that Bogdanchikov seems
to have survived (for now) may indicate that he has staying
power, despite his technocratic background as an oil man.
8. (C) Comment: Rosneft is the most important player in
Russia's oil sector, and most speculation about its
leadership is just that -- speculation. But one aspect about
MOSCOW 00005845 002 OF 002
the leadership struggle that most observers, including us,
agree on is that it's not over yet.
BURNS
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, FOR EEB/ESC/IEC GALLOGLY AND WRIGHT
EUR/CARC, SCA (GALLAGHER, SUMAR)
DOE FOR HARBERT, HEGBORG, EKIMOFF
DOC FOR 4231/IEP/EUR/JBROUGHER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON PREL RS
SUBJECT: ROSNEFT'S LEADERSHIP RUMORS
REF: MOSCOW 5835
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) Summary: A recent shuffle in the top ranks of
Rosneft, rumored to have been engineered by its Chairman Igor
Sechin, has spurred speculation that CEO Sergey Bogdanchikov
may be on his way out. If true, the company's plans and
future may depend as much on politics as the company's plans
and outlook. End summary.
--------------
BOGDANCHIKOV ON HIS WAY OUT?
--------------
2. (C) Control of Rosneft, Russia's leading oil producer, is
a favorite topic of political speculation, as Deputy Head of
the Presidential Administration Igor Sechin is Rosneft's
chairman of the board. Recent resignations of three vice
presidents and rumors of further resignations to come have
led to theories that Rosneft CEO Sergey Bogdanchikov is
himself on the way out. Such a move would, one theory goes,
make room for Sechin, who may want the CEO job himself as a
golden parachute.
3. (C) The most benign explanation for the shuffle at the top
of Rosneft came from ExxonMobil Russia's new president, Steve
Terni, who told us recently that the changes may have simply
been intended to bring in more competent leaders. But nearly
all analysts and journalists covering the story saw political
machinations behind it.
4. (C) Former Deputy Energy Minister and now energy
consultant Vladimir Milov told us December 14th that Sechin
was indeed behind the removal of the VPs, who were
Bogdanchikov associates. He claimed to have direct knowledge
of a contentious conflict between Bogdanchikov and Sechin,
who were previously allies. He said the firings were
"Sechin's way of letting Bogdanchikov know that Sechin is
still relevant."
5. (C) Although Bogdanchikov told the Ambassador this week
(reftel) he did not expect major changes in the oil sector in
2008, most analysts believe further consolidation is
inevitable as the state further tightens its control.
According to Milov, state oil transport monopoly Transneft
would soon be merged with Rosneft, and, perhaps,
Surgutneftegaz, to form a true state-owned oil sector giant.
Milov believed Bogdanchikov would stay on until that time,
when Transneft CEO Nikolay Tokarev, reportedly a Putin
insider from Dresden days, would lead the new company, with
Surgutneftegaz president Vladimir Bogdanov, another Putin
ally, as his deputy.
--------------
OR IS SECHIN LEAVING?
--------------
6. (C) Even before the latest developments of Russia's
leadership succession, rumors had circulated that Sechin was
the one on his way out or was keeping his head down in the
wake of press allegations he was behind a "redistribution" of
assets of businessmen out of favor with the Kremlin. Milov
said he believes Sechin is done at the Kremlin, but that he
doesn't have a clear place to go.
7. (C) Vladimir Konovalov, Executive Director of the
Petroleum Advisory Forum, the association of "western" oil
companies in Russia, told us December 17th that he believes
the rumors of Sechin's imminent departure from the scene were
actually started by the now departed Rosneft VPs, at the
behest of Bogdanchikov. According to Konovalov, there is a
fear in Rosneft that FSB head and Sechin ally Nikolay
Patrushev would like to fill Rosneft's leadership with his
own people. Konovalov said the fact that Bogdanchikov seems
to have survived (for now) may indicate that he has staying
power, despite his technocratic background as an oil man.
8. (C) Comment: Rosneft is the most important player in
Russia's oil sector, and most speculation about its
leadership is just that -- speculation. But one aspect about
MOSCOW 00005845 002 OF 002
the leadership struggle that most observers, including us,
agree on is that it's not over yet.
BURNS