CSTO TO FUNNEL RUSSIAN AID TO AFGHANISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005828

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2017
TAGS: MARR NATO PREL MASS AF RS
SUBJECT: CSTO TO FUNNEL RUSSIAN AID TO AFGHANISTAN

REF: A. MOSCOW 4929

B. MOSCOW 5098

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons 1.4 (a),(b),and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: Russia has made the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) a key vehicle in expanding
assistance to Afghanistan by committing itself to providing
several hundred million dollars in military aid entirely via
the CSTO. Russia's main priorities vis--vis Afghanistan are
preventing the Taliban from returning to power and stemming
the flow of illicit drugs into Russia (ref A). Russia also
hopes to open a new arms market. Experts agree that the GOR
views the expanding role of the CSTO as a win-win situation
since Russian assistance gives the CSTO a more acceptable
international color, while at the same time strengthening
Russian leadership in the organization. Russian question
marks over the future direction of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) have reinforced the preference to work
through the CSTO. End Summary.

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The Aid To Come
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2. (C) Head of the MFA Afghanistan Desk Yuriy Khokhlov told
us Russia plans to provide "several hundred million dollars"
in military aid to Afghanistan, much of it as surplus
equipment (ref B). He claimed Russia will use the CSTO as
the conduit to supply this aid in order to streamline the
process. Previously, when Russia provided Afghanistan with
equipment, the GOR had to negotiate agreements with states
that bordered Afghanistan to allow for the transshipment of
arms. This process was sometimes lengthy. To save valuable
time, Khokhlov said, military aid will now be distributed
within the framework of the CSTO, allowing Russia to secure
the necessary agreement to ship military hardware to
Afghanistan from the very beginning of the program. In this
vein, MFA NATO desk head Grigoriy Sumkin suggested that links
between the CSTO and NATO would strengthen both
organizations' abilities to provide assistance to
Afghanistan.

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Influence, Arms Sales, and Peace
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3. (C) Russia has also focused on the CSTO as a vehicle for
providing aid to Afghanistan as part of a broader effort to
play a more prominent role in South and Central Asia.
Military and regional experts agree that Russia wants to
restore long-standing (if deeply complicated) ties with
Afghanistan, including the Afghan affinity for Russian
weapons, to prevent the Taliban from returning to power, to
bring security to the region, and to develop a new (and
possibly lucrative) market for Russian arms.


4. (C) Yevgeniy Bazhanov, Vice President of the Russian
Diplomatic Academy for Academic and International Relations,
told us that Russia views Afghanistan as part of its Central
Asian "backyard," and so wants stability and peace there.
This would in turn give Russia another route for its
pipelines to carry oil and gas to countries such as India.
"Economics is a driving factor in this," he said. The CSTO,
he argued, could help Russia pursue these economic goals,
while at the same time keeping China at arm's length.

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CSTO Goals and Activities In Afghanistan
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5. (C) To disrupt the estimated 60 metric tons of heroin (600
MT opium equivalent) that are smuggled each year from
Afghanistan into Russia through the Central Asian states,
since 2003 the CSTO has conducted "Operation Channel."
During two week-long interdiction blitzes each year, extra
personnel are stationed at critical junctures on the Russian
border and in Central Asia to search for drugs and precursor
chemicals. Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan participate in the blitzes, and a number of
countries send observers. Operation Channel 2007 ended
December 3. Ten tons of narcotics were reportedly
confiscated, although the GOR's statistics tend to
overestimate seizures. The United Nations Office on Drugs
and Crime has praised Operation Channel, and set up joint
projects against drugs and narco-crime, and to expand
information-sharing. In addition, Russia announced at the
Dushanbe CIS Summit that it is willing to sell arms at

MOSCOW 00005828 002 OF 002


domestic Russian prices to countries that support
the interdiction blitzes. According to Duma Defense
Committee member Andrey Golovatyuk, this will help ensure
interoperability of equipment.


6. (C) According to Gennadiy Chufrin, Deputy Director of the
Institute of World Economy and International Relations
(IMEMO),the narcotics issue is of serious concern to Russia,
and the CSTO is a natural instrument through which the GOR
has undertaken counter-narcotics measures along Afghanistan's
borders. He claimed Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are eager to
cooperate with Russia through the CSTO while the GOR is
attempting to enlist Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in joint
counter-narcotics efforts. Chufrin believes that the GOR
finds the SCO ill-suited to deal with Afghanistan at this
point because the organization's operational focus has not
been well-defined.


7. (C) The CSTO's activities also include the establishment
of an Afghanistan working group, which visited Kabul from
March 9-13, to seek ways to aid Afghanistan, including
providing training to the Afghan Army. Aleksandr Pikayev of
the Institute of World Economy and International Relations
told us the CSTO could be well-placed to train and equip the
Afghan Army.
BURNS