KASPAROV DROPS OUT OF RACE FOR RUSSIAN PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005823

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR RS
SUBJECT: KASPAROV DROPS OUT OF RACE FOR RUSSIAN PRESIDENT

Classified By: POL M/C Alice G. Wells. Reason: 1.4 (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: Garry Kasparov announced December 13 that
he will not be a candidate in the March 2 presidential
elections. Kasparov made the decision one day after the
Central Election Commission (CEC) held firm on its decision
that at least 500 members of the United Civil Front (UCF)
which Kasparov heads must hold a nominating meeting before
they can start collecting the two million signatures
necessary for him to get on the ballot. Kasparov's
organization was prevented from holding the required
nominating meeting of an "initiative group" which means they
do not get to advance to the signature collecting stage which
ends January 16. On December 13 opposition figure Vladimir
Ryzhkov followed suit, leaving former PM Kasyanov and Union
of Right Forces (SPS) leader Nemtsov as potential opposition
presidential contenders. End Summary.

No Room at the Mir
--------------


2. (SBU) The United Civil Front's (UCF) Garry Kasparov told
reporters December 13 that he had been forced out of the
presidential race when the Kremlin intervened to prevent him
from renting a meeting place for the nominating convention
that must, by law, be convened in order to nominate him.
Kasparov's spokeswoman, Marina Litvinovich, accused the
government of pressuring owners of facilities in Moscow large
enough to accommodate the necessary 500 people, not to rent
to the UCF. Under Russian law, a presidential candidate who
is not nominated by a party with seats in the Duma must get
the support of at least 500 people at an "initiative group"
meeting. Only after this can he/she begin the process of
collecting two million signatures necessary to appear on the
ballot. The UCF had hoped to hold such a nominating meeting
on December 13 at the Mir Theater in Moscow -- and had
provided the CEC the required five-day notice on December 8
-- but the owner of the theater backed out of his commitment
on December 10, citing "technical reasons."


3. (C) Kasparov told us December 14 that organizers were
told by many owners that they had available space to
accommodate 500 people, but "not for Kasparov." Kasparov
said that the Mir Theater had been the venue for a similar
nominating meeting on December 10 and was slated to host
another such meeting on December 14. According to Kasparov,
the CEC refused his group's request that the CEC be flexible
and allow UCF to conduct several meetings totaling 500 in
smaller venues that were willing to rent space to UCF.
Kasparov told us he would not appeal the CEC's decision,
although he is considering taking legal action against the
owner of the Mir Theater for breach of contract.

Other Independent Candidates
--------------


4. (SBU) Candidates have until December 18 to hold such
nominating meetings. Outgoing independent Duma deputy
Vladimir Ryzhkov has declined the nomination of an initiative
group that met earlier this week, citing the procedural and
financial difficulties facing independent candidates. Former
Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov has accepted the nomination
from his People's Democratic Union at its third extraordinary
meeting held December 7. Representatives from the
All-Russian Civic Congress met on December 12 and approved a
procedure proposed by SPS head Boris Nemtsov through which a
board of 12 members will select one candidate from the
All-Russian Civic Congress.

Party Nominations
--------------


5. (SBU) Parties represented in the Duma have until December
23 to hold congresses at which they should nominate their
candidates. On December 13, fewer than 200 members of
Zhirinovskiy's Liberal Democratic Party (the 500 person
requirement does not apply to parties in the Duma) met in
Moscow and nominated him for his fourth bid for the
presidency. United Russia members will meet on December 17
and are expected to endorse Putin's nomination of First
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev as their candidate.
The Communist Party is similarly expected to nominate it
leader Gennadiy Zyuganov on December 15.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Thus ends the quixotic quest of the former world
chess champion to become Russia's next president. It had
been clear from the outset that the authorities would not
entertain his bid for relevance on the political stage here.
Kasparov has not indicated whether he intends to continue his
Dissenters' Marches in the face of growing political
consolidation around the Putin-blessed candidacy of Medvedev.
Despite Kasparov's narrow base, he remains a lightning rod
for the Kremlin and a poster boy for the GOR's lack of
tolerance for dissent.
BURNS