THE MEASURE OF THE MAN - "WHO IS MR. MEDVEDEV?"

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005800

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2017
TAGS: RS PINR PGOV
SUBJECT: THE MEASURE OF THE MAN - "WHO IS MR. MEDVEDEV?"

REF: MOSCOW 2135

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reason: 1.4(d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Despite his prominence as First Deputy Premier,
Gazprom Board Chair, and earlier as Head of the Presidential
Administration, Medvedev remains only somewhat less an enigma
than his mentor Putin was when the latter was picked as
Yeltsin's successor eight years ago. In the near unanimous
approval earlier this week of Putin's anointing him as
candidate for President, no one has seriously questioned
Medvedev's character or suitability for the top Kremlin seat.
Conventional wisdom, confirmed by conversations with his
interlocutors, presents a capable conscientious manager, able
to deliver on what he promises. However, like Putin in 1999,
Medvedev has lived largely in the bureaucratic shadow of
others, serving as the perennial deputy or assistant,
generally to "big brother" Putin. His announcement on
December 10 that he plans to ask Putin to serve as Premier
suggests he is already preparing (at least initially) for a
"back-seat" role as the third President of Russia. End
Summary.

The Un-Putin?
--------------


2. (C) Medvedev appears not to have Putin's ambition or
"hard" edge, possibly because he has less to prove. Whereas
Putin grew up in a working class family living in a communal
apartment, Medvedev's roots are in St. Petersburg's academic
community. His father taught at the Leningrad Technological
Institute and his mother worked as a philologist at the
Herzen Pedagogical Institute. Putin learned judo to fight
neighborhood toughs; Medvedev lifted weights and focused his
energies on Western "heavy metal" music, then considered
"subversive." (He maintains an impressive collection of Deep
Purple albums and attended a concert by the band's aging
rockers with fellow Deputy Premier Sergey Ivanov.) Medvedev
also succeeded in winning the hand of Svetlana, the girl his
contemporaries considered "the prettiest in the school." The
two were married in 1989 and they have a son Ilya, who was
born in 1995.


3. (SBU) Unlike Putin, for whom higher learning appears a
means to an end, Medvedev could easily have forged an
academic career if he hadn't been pulled into the orbit of
his professor of civil law, Anatoliy Sobchak, who headed the
local city council. Medvedev earned an advanced degree in
law in 1990 from Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) State
University, where he served as a law professor from
1990-1999. Former students have publicly praised him as a
"super intellectual" and a "strict but fair" instructor.
Vitaliy Ivanenko, Vice Dean of the St. Petersburg Law School,
told us that Medvedev was an outstanding student who
specialized in Roman law. Ivanenko noted that during
Medvedev's tenure as professor, he authored several chapters
of the faculty's definitive textbook "Civil Law," which has
sold 1.5 million copies in over 6 printings since 1995 and is
used across the country.


4. (SBU) Born in September 1965, Medvedev never had a
"Soviet" career nor did he participate in the "wild
capitalism" of the late Gorbachev era, when the young
reformers and oligarchs of the Yeltsin years cut their teeth
on Komsomol business projects or trading ventures. Instead,
his early adulthood experiences were those of the post-Soviet
depression and the dislocations that accompanied it. Because
of his excellent ties to powerful players -- first to St.
Petersburg mayor Sobchak and then to Sochak's deputy, Putin
-- Medvedev was lucky to avoid much of the suffering that
affected the rest of his generation. However, his
experiences likely have shaped his commitment to resolving
social issues, and may explain his determination to see
through Putin's National Projects. Medvedev has mentioned on
several occasions to Ambassador that he traveled widely in
Russia on legal business in the 1990's and understands
first-hand how difficult it was during that period for people
to make ends meet, especially in the regions.


5. (SBU) From 1993-1999, Medvedev entered the business world
in St. Petersburg, co-founding the Sibtrust and Baltflot
Consulting company. In 1994, he was appointed Director of
the board for a subsidiary of Ilim Pulp, Russia's largest
paper and corrugated manufacturer, and served as the legal
adviser to the parent company. According to press reports,
when he found out that his partners were taking unscrupulous
actions with the company, Medvedev left Ilim. Soon after his
departure, the state started an investigation of the company.

From Bureaucrat to Politician
--------------


6. (C) Having impressed then Leningrad city council head
Sobchak as a student, in 1990 he became an adviser to the
Mayor's Committee for Foreign Relations, where he made the
acquaintance with Putin that would change his life. The two
became close colleagues, with Medvedev serving as Putin's
personal lawyer. When Putin was appointed Premier in 1999,
Medvedev followed him to Moscow to serve in the Presidential
Administration (PA). Despite his inexperience, Putin
selected Medvedev to run his 2000 presidential campaign and,
from all indications, was pleased with his work. When Putin
fired PA Head Aleksandr Voloshin in 2003, Medvedev was
elevated to fill the vacancy. Noted Russian political
observer Liliya Shevtsova told us that Medvedev had proved
himself a disciplined, non-stop work machine, who liked to
get to the bottom of technical issues. At the same time, she
says he gained the reputation as a petty, jealous, and
sometimes unscrupulous player in the rough-and-tumble world
of Kremlin politics.


7. (C) In 2005, Putin appointed Medvedev First Deputy Premier
in a move that many saw as a first step in preparing Medvedev
for the Presidency. Commentators note he has "trimmed down,"
changed his haberdasher, and has "learned how to tie a tie
properly." Others point to a marked improvement in his
oratory, citing a strong speech given at the Davos summit
earlier this year. He has consistently delivered on those
tasks requested of him, working within the system to achieve
his goals. For example, Medvedev played a key role in
ensuring that Part IV of the Civil Code was amended to allow
the conclusion of a bilateral WTO agreement to go forward.
At the same time, he expressed frustration at what he claimed
were the ever-shifting goalposts related to Jackson-Vanik
graduation, and criticized the U.S. for politicizing WTO
accession (reftel).


8. (C) The lynch-pin of Medvedev's tenure as Deputy Premier
was his responsibility for overseeing the National Projects
in healthcare, housing, education and agriculture, which was
allocated more than $13 billion in funding in 2006-2007
(though how much has been spent is an open question). While
incremental steps have been made, among them higher salaries
for public sector workers, improved delivery of medical
services and increasing internet connectivity of schools,
overall progress has been disappointing. Acknowledging as
much, Medvedev told the Secretary on October 14 that he had
not fully understood the magnitude of these problems, nor the
difficulty of getting federal bureaucrats and regional
leaders to tackle them effectively. The priority projects
elevated Medvedev's public profile, and much of the air time
he received in 2007 were ribbon-cutting ceremonies related to
these projects.


Gazprom's Political Patron
--------------


9. (C) Medvedev's record as chairman of the Gazprom board of
directors (from 2000-2001 and from 2002-present) is less
clear. As Aleksandr Burganskiy, head of research at
Renaissance Capital, puts it, "nobody in the investment
community has met with him. As we understand it, Medvedev
has little to do with the day-to-day management of Gazprom,
which is run by the Management Committee, headed by Aleksey
Miller. Instead, as Burganskiy describes it, Medvedev has
primarily provided political support and oversight of the
company. Vladimir Konovalov, Executive Director of the
Petroleum Advisory Forum (the leading association of western
oil companies),said Medvedev "doesn't have much to do with
the business end" of the company. Other contacts indicate
that he is more technically capable, knowledgeable, and
interested that his title suggests. Whatever role he had
played, Medvedev's lengthy tenure at Gazprom's helm suggests
that Putin is pleased with his work there. Everyone with
whom we spoke about Medvedev and Gazprom believes his
promotion will be good for the company. His selection was
widely praised by investment analysts as "good for the
economy."


Playing the Kremlin Game
--------------


10. (C) Our interlocutors suggest that Medvedev's skills in
inter-clan rivalries have also improved. Andrey Soldatov, one
of Moscow's top analysts on the Russian security services,
saw Medvedev as allied with the "invalids" of the siloviki --
those organs like Viktor Cherkesev's Federal Drug Control
Agency and Viktor Zolotov's Presidential Protective Service
-- in the increasing tense maneuvering among the Kremlin
elite. In a December 5 meeting, Ekho Moskvy Editor Aleksey
Venediktov speculated that Medvedev had directed the
publication of the "Shvartsman interview" (in which hitherto
unknown Russian businessman Oleg Shvartsman alleged that he
was involved a scheme with PA head Igor Sechin to
re-privatize assets) in the Gazprom-controlled Kommersant
newspaper as a shot across the bow of Medvedev's siloviki
rivals. Venediktov argued that the article had done real
damage; although Shvartsman only reconfirmed what everyone
believed about corruption and politically motivated
re-privatization, public attention to the sordid details was
embarrassing.


11. (C) Many in Moscow saw a victory for the liberal camp in
Putin's blessing of Medvedev as presidential candidate,
considering the appointment of a "real" successor as a rebuff
to the Sechin camp's promotion of a "third term" for Putin as
the only way to protect their influence. Nezavisimaya Gazeta
owner Konstantin Remchukov told Embassy on December 10 that
Medvedev's appointment was the "triumph of liberals."
Remchukov was pleased that the country would be led by a
young, Western-friendly, lawyer. Moreover, Medvedev's focus
on national projects gave the editor confidence that Medvedev
had an excellent tutorial on the challenges facing Russia in
demography, infrastructure, and economic diversification.
Likewise, Moskovskiy Komsomolets (MK) editor Pavel Gusev told
us that Medvedev was the liberals' best hope. Having earlier
stared down Sergey Ivanov, who as Defense Minister pressured
MK to stop its reports on military hazing, Gusev was
cautiously optimistic that a more liberal press policy could
emerge under Medvedev.

Liberal at Home, a Liberal Abroad?
--------------


12. (C) One clear lacuna in Medvedev's political resume is
his lack of involvement in or even commentary on foreign
policy. Medvedev has generally refused to get involved in
those issues, which he views as an unwelcome distraction from
the National Projects. Lacking firm evidence, analysts here
tend to assume that his "liberal" approach to domestic issues
signals a tendency toward improved relations with the West.
Many seized upon Medvedev's speech at the Davos economic
forum last January and his comments to the international
media afterward as a rejection of the more isolationist
"sovereign democracy" promoted by PA ideologue Vladislav
Surkov. (When asked, Medvedev then said that he sought for
Russia a democracy without "unnecessary additional
definitions" built on the principles of a market economy, the
rule of law, and the accountability of the authorities.") No
matter how "liberal" Medvedev's views might be, there is
little reason to anticipate that his diplomacy will differ
significantly from that of his mentor, especially during the
initial start of his potential presidency.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) "Just Russia" Duma deputy Oksana Dmitrieva privately
summed up the elite's reaction to Medvedev's appointment --
"He's not the worst candidate out there" and possibly the
best one for Western interests. That said, there is little
reason to expect a Medvedev presidency (which most here see
as a foregone conclusion) to follow a very different
trajectory that that of the current regime. Despite the
remarkable differences between the two men, Medvedev's
"bureaucratic liberalism" echoes that of Putin's first
administration. There is little evidence to suggest that
Medvedev's ideas about democracy vary far from Putin's. If
Putin follows through with the "castling" move to the
Premiership, Medvedev's role is likely to follow the pattern
of capable assistant that he has come to know well.
BURNS