RUSSIA HOPEFUL BUT CAUTIOUS ABOUT A BREAKTHROUGH

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005761

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA HOPEFUL BUT CAUTIOUS ABOUT A BREAKTHROUGH
IN RELATIONS WITH POLAND

REF: MOSCOW 5585

Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells
for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. Summary: The MFA told us that new Polish PM Tusk's
pro-European stance, positive statements about Russia-Poland
bilateral ties, his decision to remove Poland's veto on
Russia's OECD accession, and recent efforts to address
Russian concerns about Polish meat were clearly steps in the
right direction. However, MFA Poland Section Chief Timur
Tkachev and analysts stressed that Poland needed to do more
to normalize ties, including lifting its veto on a Russia-EU
PCA and addressing Russian concerns about U.S. missile
defense plans in Poland. FM Lavrov's December 7 brief
meeting with Polish FM Sikorski was aimed at gauging Poland's
readiness for serious engagement. End summary.

MFA: Bilateral Relations Should Be Put Into Perspective
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2. (C) MFA Poland Section Chief Timur Tkachev hesitated to
characterize Russia's relations with Poland. Tkachev told us
on December 6 that Russia-Poland economic and cultural ties
have only intensified over time. He pointed out that
bilateral trade between 2000-2006, for example, tripled to
$15 billion, and added that Russia's bilateral trade with the
U.S. is almost exactly the same. Tkachev said that the key
challenge in the bilateral relationship is for Poland "to
stop politicizing essentially technical or otherwise
non-political disagreements."


3. (C) Tkachev argued that because of the "ever-changing
political dynamics" in Poland, Russia's political contact
with Poland has ebbed and flowed. He said that the
relationship hit a low point during the reign of the
Kaczynski brothers. Tkachev joked that the historical
animosity between the two countries made it difficult for any
Polish leader to seek "normal" relations with Russia, but he
argued that the Kaczynski brothers' "blatantly anti-Russia"
policy line impaired Russia's relations both with Poland and
the EU.

GOR Has Taken Note of Positive Signals from Tusk
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4. (C) Tkachev was cautiously optimistic that the bilateral
relationship would improve with Donald Tusks' emergence as
Polish Prime Minister. Tkachev said Russia was fully aware
that Poland's relationship with the U.S. would remain Tusk's
top priority, but it seemed clear that Tusk was prepared to
improve the "atmosphere" in Russia-Poland relations. Tusk's
immediate issuance of positive statements about a desire to
strengthen bilateral relations with Russia and his
willingness to engage on such controversial issues as
Poland's veto on a Russia-EU Partnership and Cooperation
Agreement (PCA) and U.S. missile defense plans in Poland and
the Czech Republic were the right signals. Tkachev added
Poland's recent efforts to satisfy Russian meat quality
control standards and Tusk's announcement that Poland would
lift its veto on Russia's accession to the OECD were
important steps in the right direction. (Note: Tusk also
offered only mild criticism of the Russian parliamentary
elections, noting that the results of the elections "cannot
be doubted.")

Why the Positive Signals?
--------------


5. (C) When asked to identify the possible motivations for
what Tkachev characterized as Tusk's "more pragmatic"
approach to Russia, Tkachev highlighted the Polish PM's
generally pro-European vision, including his belief that
Poland should contribute to -- and not threaten -- EU unity,
as a key factor. Experts on Russia-Poland relations, such as
IMEMO's Irina Kobrinskaya and MGIMO's Olga Butorina, agreed
with the MFA's assessment. Kobrinskaya said that Tusk's
electoral victory demonstrated that the Poles are "evolving
from rebellious teenagers (vis-a-vis Russia) into a mature
and confident EU member." Butorina added that Tusk 's
interest in improving bilateral ties with Germany requires
Poland to put aside at least some of its differences with
Russia. Tkachev and analysts said that it was also possible
Poland was interested in gaining greater access to the
rapidly growing Russian consumer market.

But Russia Has To See More To Believe
--------------


6. (C) Tkachev stressed that Russia has yet to draw any firm
conclusions about the current state of bilateral relations
with Poland, as Russia is waiting to see more concrete action
from PM Tusk. Tkachev said that FM Lavrov would use his

December 7 meeting with Polish FM Sikorski on the margins of
the NATO Ministerial to gauge Poland's readiness to
reestablish regular political contact and discuss "with an
open mind" such issues as Poland's participation in U.S. MD
plans, the PCA, and Poland's objections to the Nord Stream
gas pipeline project (reftel). Tkachev said the meeting
would be brief, but important.


7. (C) Tkachev noted that Russia is also watching carefully
Tusk's ability to steer the course of Russia-Poland
relations, given that Lech Kaczynski as president and
Jaroslav Kaczynski as opposition leader in parliament remain
opposed to improved bilateral ties with Russia. Kobrinskaya
added that Russia would need to see a stronger consensus
among the political elite in Warsaw before it undertook more
serious action to strengthen ties.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Russia is unabashed in placing all the blame for the
strain in its bilateral relationship on Poland and thus
expects Poland to lead the way in normalizing ties. Russia
will be pressing Tusk to make good on his promise to hear out
(and hopefully address) Russia's concerns on missile defense.

BURNS