RUSSIAN GOALS FOR NATO-RUSSIA MINISTERIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005735

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2017
TAGS: PREL NATO MARR RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN GOALS FOR NATO-RUSSIA MINISTERIAL

REF: MOSCOW 5505

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reason 1.4 (b) (d).


1. (C) Summary. Russia will use the December 7 NATO-Russia
Council (NRC) Ministerial as an opportunity to reiterate its
views on suspension of the CFE Treaty, opposition to U.S.
plans to deploy a missile defense (MD) system in Poland and
the Czech Republic, opposition to a Kosovo Unilateral
Declaration of Independence (UDI),and Russian concerns about
NATO enlargment to Georgia and Ukraine. FM Lavrov will
express satisfaction at the practical cooperation and
political dialogue in the NRC, and highlight cooperation on
Afghanistan and counterterrorism, particularly Russia's
training of Afghan police at the Moscow Domodedovo Center.
On CFE, Russia's suspension of its participation in the
Treaty will take effect December 12, although the MFA
stresses that Russia does not see this as the end of efforts
to resolve outstanding issues. On missile defense, the MFA
stresses that if the U.S. and NATO merge the U.S. MD plans
with NATO's TMD plans and Russia is excluded, it will have a
negative effect on NATO-Russia cooperation. (CFE and MD
analyses septel). On Kosovo, Russia has not changed its
position regarding response to a UDI (Reftel). End summary.

Russia Satisfied with NATO-Russia Council Cooperation
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2. (C) MFA Counselor for NATO issues Grigoriy Sumkin told
us December 5 that FM Lavrov would express satisfaction with
the work of the NRC, highlighting practical cooperation
projects such as the counternarcotics trafficking (CN) pilot
project on Afghanistan and Operation Active Endeavor, and
political dialogue, such as the discussions on the situation
in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Praise for Cooperation on Afghanistan, Counterterrorism
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3. (C) Sumkin said Lavrov would express Russia's interest in
providing assistance to the International Security Assistance
Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan and note Russia's interest in
increasing NATO links with the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) to facilitate transit of assistance to
Afghanistan (septel). There would be a photo presentation on
Russia's Domodedovo Center training for Afghan CN forces.
Sumkin told us Russia would like to see the CN project
extended beyond its 2009 end date.


4. (C) Sumkin added that Russia was very satisfied with the
Cooperative Airspace Initiative and hoped that the Baltic
States would soon join the project. He said Lavrov would
praise NRC counterterrorism cooperation, particularly in
Operation Active Endeavor. Sumkin said Russia would likely
send another ship to next year's Operation, but the decision
had not yet been made. He added that Russia saw potential
for greater counterterrorism cooperation in the framework of
the NRC, particularly in the area of infrastructure,
including energy flow infrastructure, security. He said
Russia would like to "breathe more life" into the Threat
Assessment Working Group and work on standardized procedures
for potential emergency situations along the NATO-Russia
border.

But, CFE, MD, Kosovo Still Contentious
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5. (C) Sumkin said Lavrov's remarks on CFE and Missile
Defense would coincide with those he made at the OSCE
Ministerial in Madrid November 30. On CFE, he stressed that
while all practical application of the Treaty (notification,
inspections, etc.) would cease on December 12, the GOR was
still interested in continuing discussions with the U.S. On
MD, Sumkin said CHOD Baluyevskiy's announcement of Russia's
willingness to participate in NATO's TMD exercises at the end
of January had been a very difficult decision for the GOR,
and showed Russia's willingness to compromise.


6. (C) On Kosovo, Sumkin said Lavrov would reiterate
Russia's opposition to a UDI, and, reiterating that December
10 was not the "end of history," would stress the need for
the troika to continue working to reach a solution acceptable
to both sides.

Russia Opposed to NATO Enlargement to Ukraine, Georgia
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7. (C) Sumkin stressed that NATO enlargement to Ukraine and
Georgia threatened Russian and the entire region's security,
and could also negatively impact Russia's willingness to
cooperate in the NRC. Recent events in Georgia and divisions
in Ukraine emphasized the fragile nature of stability in
those countries, and added to Russia's concerns regarding
regional stability.

The View from the NATO Information Office
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8. (C) Isabelle Francois (protect),head of Moscow's NATO
Information Office, agreed that the GOR is very satisfied
with the NATO-Russia Workplan and cooperation in the NRC,
especially on Afghanistan and CT issues. However, she
stressed that CFE, Kosovo, and especially MD, would be the
litmus test for NATO-Russia relations. Russia was truly
interested in developing a cooperative security environment,
with missile defense at its core, she believed, but Russia
would prefer to do so multilaterally, and Russia would need
to be seen as a "true partner." She believed the GOR harsh
rhetoric on CFE and MD was not just internal politics in an
election season, but was tapping into a deep level of
frustration and anti-Western feeling. U.S. proposals on CFE
and MD had positively changed the dynamic but were too
little, too late to change Russia's course. She believed
Russia would continue the tough rhetoric while keeping the
door open to further negotiations on these difficult issues.
BURNS