MFA ON LEBANON AND THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005523

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG KPAL IS LE RS
SUBJECT: MFA ON LEBANON AND THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS

REF: MOSCOW 5457

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: According to the MFA, Putin and Foreign
Minister Lavrov told Lebanese parliamentary majority leader
Saad Hariri during their November 20 meeting that the GOR
would not support a specific candidate for the Lebanese
presidency and hoped the country's political factions could
agree upon a "consensus candidate." The MFA said the GOR
sought to convince Syria to play a constructive role in
Lebanon and to attend Annapolis, but Russian influence had
limits. A sign from the U.S. that it would address the
Israeli-Syrian dispute over the Golan Heights could lead
Syria to be more helpful. The GOR did not expect a
"breakthrough" at the Annapolis Conference, but thought that
progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would strengthen
PA President Abbas and moderates in Hamas. The GOR hoped to
"maximize" the results at Annapolis by holding a meeting of
Middle East experts in Moscow that would address a variety of
regional issues. End summary.

GOR Hopes for a "Consensus Candidate" in Lebanon
-------------- ---


2. (C) MFA Deputy Director for the Middle East and North
Africa Oleg Ozerov told us that during their November 20
meeting in Moscow, Putin and Lavrov offered Lebanese
parliamentary majority leader Hariri their support for a
resolution to Lebanon's current political turmoil but
stressed that the GOR hoped to see the Lebanese factions
agree upon a "consensus candidate" for President. The GOR
would not support a specific candidate, nor back a particular
faction in the Lebanese Parliament. Lavrov reiterated, both
publicly and privately, the position that Lebanese politics
should be free of foreign interference.


3. (C) Ozerov told us that Hariri said he was not sure a
consensus candidate could be found and feared that a
"political vacuum" would ensue after the term of President
Lahoud ended November 23. Ozerov believed, however, that the
Lebanese would not commit "political suicide" and the process
of finding an acceptable candidate would continue as
parliamentarians had not exhausted all possibilities. The
Russian Ambassador in Lebanon, along with other international
representatives, continued to meet with the various factions
to convince them to overcome their mistrust of one another.
Ozerov said the GOR wanted to avoid the "disintegration" of
Lebanon. Should Lebanon fail to get its political house in
order, it was in danger of becoming a factionalized non-state
like Palestine.

U.S. Should Address Syrian Concerns
--------------


4. (C) Ozerov echoed comments by DFM Saltanov to the
Ambassador that the GOR worked "very hard" to convince Syria
to be more helpful in Lebanon and the Middle East Peace
Process (MEPP),including conveying Putin's strong pitch for
Syrian attendance at Annapolis, but that Russian influence
had limits. Ozerov reiterated Saltanov's view that the U.S.
should declare its intention at Annapolis to work toward a
settlement on the Golan Heights, which would motivate Assad
to play a more constructive role in the region. A
demonstration of U.S. seriousness to engage with Syria would
also have a salutary effect on the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict by strengthening the position of Palestinian
moderates against their more radical compatriots.


5. (C) Ozerov explained that the Russia, unlike the U.S., did
not see Hamas as "homogeneous" but recognized moderate forces
with which one could work. Ozerov complained that the
current split between Fatah and Hamas and the continued
isolation of Gaza only undermined the "constructive people"
in Hamas. He believed that Syrian participation in Annapolis
and some level of success at the conference for the
Palestinians could lead to a "new political situation" that
would strengthen the positions of PA President Abbas as well
as the Hamas moderates.

GOR Wants to Continue Annapolis Momentum
--------------


6. (C) Ozerov said Russia did not expect a "breakthrough" at
Annapolis, but viewed the conference as a starting point from
which to work toward final settlement on "all tracks" in the
region, including Israeli disputes with Lebanon and Syria.
In order to help "push this process forward," the GOR was
considering proposing a follow-up meeting in Moscow (reftel).
The Russians already had a "picture" of how the meeting
would be organized, although much would depend upon the
outcome at Annapolis. Ozerov said the GOR already discussed

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the possibility of bringing together Israeli and Syrian
representatives in Moscow to discuss the Golan Heights. Both
the Israeli and Syrian Ambassadors in Moscow have said
publicly that their governments would consider a meeting on
the issue in Moscow.


7. (C) Ozerov noted that Russia, U.S., EU, and Arab countries
each had reasons for involvement in the MEPP. Regardless of
the varying motivations and approaches, the Annapolis
Conference provided an "intersection" of interests and unique
opportunity for progress.
BURNS