THE WEEK IN POLITICS: THE PUTIN NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 005516

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI PINR RS
SUBJECT: THE WEEK IN POLITICS: THE PUTIN NATIONAL
CONVENTION

REF: MOSCOW 5433

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reason: 1.4 (d).


1. (C) Summary: The "For Putin" movement continued to
percolate, with a November 21 gathering of five thousand
supporters in a Moscow sports hall. The event --part U.S.
political party convention, part CPSU congress-- featured an
extended attack by Putin on his political opponents, a swipe
at the West, and a soundtrack from the Soviet era, which
provoked ironic, and occasionally venomous, commentary in the
media. The week also saw Putin endeavor to enlist the
Russian Orthodox Church in his get-out-the-vote (for United
Russia) drive. Next on the President's campaign schedule will
be a November 26 campaign visit to St. Petersburg and an
appeal to the nation, which is allegedly already taped and
scheduled for broadcast on November 29. In the meantime, the
Supreme Court rebuffed opposition party SPS's efforts to
de-list Putin for allegedly campaigning for United Russia
during work hours. SPS's repeat appeal was rejected by the
Supreme Court on November 24. At a meeting on November 23,
SPS determined that Boris Nemtsov would be its candidate for
President. Other Russia/SPS demonstrations to be reported
septel. End summary.

The Putin National Convention
--------------


2. (C) The "For Putin" movement bussed about five thousand
supporters and a limited media contingent to the Luzhniki
sports complex November 21 for a speech by the objection of
its affection, President Putin. The media reported (Embassy
was denied permission to attend) that Putin obliged with a
speech that recounted his administration's achievements and
attacked those who want to undermine Russia. Putin rehearsed
for the crowd the progress made on his watch: Russia's
territorial integrity was restored, international terrorism
was repulsed, Russia joined the world's leading economies,
per capita income increased, birth rates went up, all
international debts were paid off, and infrastructure and
housing improved. The course chartered by the government
must be continued, however, and only United Russia can
accomplish that although, Putin acknowledged, "(United
Russia) is not the ideal political tool" for that task."


3. (SBU) The second half of Putin's speech featured a
blistering attack on Russia's internal enemies, with
occasional swipes at their external "handlers." Although no
names or parties were mentioned, it was clear that Putin had
Yabloko, SPS and, to a much lesser degree, the Communists in
his sights. He accused the lot of corruption, of bringing
the country to its knees in the '90s, and of cynicism. The
leaders of Yabloko and SPS, he noted in an aside, spend much
of their time "begging" for help at foreign embassies.
Excerpts from Putin's address became a staple of news
broadcasts, with most of the speech re-broadcast in weekend
news programs.


4. (SBU) Some media were quick to condemn the event as an
exercise in political populism for a select few guests.
Kommersant journalist Andrey Kolesnikov, in an unusually
barbed article, described the forum as over-rehearsed and
evoking little enthusiasm, even from Putin himself. The
forum featured Soviet internationalist classics like "You,
me, he, she; together we are one country. . .": a speech by
Putin's schoolteacher, who described Putin as a "decent
person who would not stay for a third term once he gave his
word;" and words from a test pilot, who told the young people
present to stop hanging around in bars and night clubs as a
"time of spirituality has arrived." Kolesnikov likened the
stage-managed event to an American party convention, and
downplayed Putin's harsh rhetoric, which he thought was
gauged to rouse those present to work harder for United
Russia.


5. (SBU) Other journalists were quick to jump in. Moskovskiy
Komsomolets's Andrey Minkin, in a front-page article entitled
"The Silence of the Shashlik" offered his own version of
Putin's accomplishments: he has eliminated elections to the
Federation Council and for governor, removed the minimal
voter turnout requirement, nixed the "against all" provision
on ballots, and severely limited the subjects on which a
national referendum can be held. The "silence" Minkin
referred to is the cowed silence of Russians, which the
President mistakes for agreement. Novaya Gazeta's Andrey
Lipskiy followed suit in a November 22 article entitled "What
Are They Afraid Of?" in which, keying on Putin's speech, he
explored the causes of insecurity in the Administration about
an election whose results are a foregone conclusion. Lipskiy
concluded that the chief fear is voter apathy on election day.


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The Church Signs On
--------------


6. (SBU) As noted reftel, Putin met November 19 with the
Russian Orthodox Church hierarchy, and used the occasion to
remind those present that he is heading the United Russia
list. Putin said he was "certain that Russian Orthodox
citizens, like other citizens, would fulfill their civic duty
and vote." Patriarch Aleksiy promised Putin that the Russian
Orthodox Church would be a "reliable partner."

More Campaign Appearances
--------------


7. (U) Next on Putin's electoral schedule will be a November
26 trip to his native St. Petersburg, where he will take
part, with Duma Chairman Gryzlov, who heads United Russia's
list in that city, in a United Russia forum entitled "A
Professional Team for the Country." The object of the
exercise, which has been staged in other regions of the
country, is to identify specialists who may be selected for
positions in local and regional bodies of government. The
forum will no doubt provide the President with an opportunity
to campaign for United Russia on his home turf.


8. (SBU) On November 29, a short appeal by Putin is expected
to be broadcast on national television. It is expected that,
like his speech at Luzhniki, the appeal will describe his
Administration's accomplishments and the dangers facing
Russia, and ask voters to allow United Russia to continue the
course charted by the President.

Supreme Court Backs Putin
--------------


9. (SBU) The beleaguered SPS party failed to make progress in
its efforts to have Putin removed from the head of United
Russia's party list for allegedly using his official position
to campaign for his party. SPS accused Putin of crossing the
line between President and candidate on two occasions:
during his speech (reftel) to road workers in Krasnoyarsk,
and during his annual "open mike" question-and-answer session
with Russian citizens. To no one's surprise, the Supreme
Court followed the Central Election Commission in ruling that
Putin's actions had been in accord with the law. As United
Russia Deputy Vladimir Pligin summarized: "Due to the
President's power and authority, he cannot be bound by
restrictions on his activity." SPS contends that the first
appeal was invalid as neither Putin nor his representatives
appeared, and a telegram to Putin sent by the Court was
returned to sender. SPS filed a repeat repeal, which was
rejected by the Court on November 24.


10. (SBU) At a special session on November 23, SPS nominated
its Federal list number two, Boris Nemtsov, as its
presidential candidate. (Note: SPS Leader Nikita Belykh, at
32, does not meet the constitutionally decreed age
requirement of 35.) SPS's decision is expected to be
confirmed at a party congress scheduled for December 17.

SPS Joins With Other Russia
--------------


11. (SBU) SPS has also joined Other Russia's November 24
meeting in central Moscow (weekend events to be reported
septel). SPS Chairman Belykh underlined that SPS will not
formally join Other Russia's coalition and that, in
protesting with Other Russia, SPS is not formally allying
itself with Eduard Limonov's National Bolshevik Party, which
is a member of Other Russia. SPS's participation is intended
to show, Belykh said, that it is a genuine opposition party.

Signs of the Campaign
--------------


12. (SBU) With the election only one week away, there is
scant evidence of a campaign on the streets of Moscow.
Communist Party campaign workers are distributing campaign
literature at some of the city's metro stops, where they are
occasionally joined by LDPR. United Russia seems to have
virtually monopolized the city's key advertising locations.
Enormous United Russia posters noting that Russia is "for
Putin" front the Hotel Moskva at Red Square and at the end of
Novyj Arbat street. United Russia banners line the bridge
leading past the Kremlin in the direction of the Lenin
Library. Voters are reminded to "check box number 10"
(United Russia's place on the Federal list) by signs at bus
stops and attached to telephone poles along the city's main
thoroughfares. There are occasional SPS and LDPR billboards
including, notably, one featuring SPS's Masha Gaidar just
outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Communist Party

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seems to have decided that such advertising is not worth the
coin.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) With Putin's entry into the race on the side of
United Russia, the suspense has been drained from the
election. What interest remains is focused on United Russia's
margin of victory and the number of parties that will cross
the seven-percent threshold to Duma representation. Voter
turnout, Kremlin support for, or opposition to, parties on
the margins, and fiddling at the local level could combine to
produce as few as two and as many as four parties in the new
legislature. While the Kremlin seems to have expressed a
preference for a multi-party Duma, and that seems the much
more likely outcome at this juncture, a United Russia -
Communist Party legislature cannot be excluded. With the
Federation Council on November 26 having set March 2 as the
date for the presidential elections (septel),the media's
attention will inevitably begin to shift to the central
question in this election season: Putin's successor.
BURNS