Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MOSCOW5474
2007-11-21 13:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:
RUSSIA CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBILITY FOR VIOLENCE IN
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005474
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2017
TAGS: PREL UNSC PBTS ET ER RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBILITY FOR VIOLENCE IN
THE HORN OF AFRICA
REF: SECSTATE 153831
Classified By: M/C for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells for reason 1.4
(b/d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005474
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2017
TAGS: PREL UNSC PBTS ET ER RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBILITY FOR VIOLENCE IN
THE HORN OF AFRICA
REF: SECSTATE 153831
Classified By: M/C for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells for reason 1.4
(b/d).
1. (C) Summary. While the GOR supports UNSC Presidential
Statement 9169 urging both Ethiopia and Eritrea to take
concrete steps to implement the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary
Commission (EEBC)'s delineation decision, the GOR does not
support the EEBC's plan for "virtually" demarcating the
border and believes the EEBC must fulfill its mandate by
implementing a physical border. During Ethiopian FM Seyoum's
November 7 visit to Moscow the GOR warned him about
destabilizing comments and action. The GOR believed the
United Nation Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) mandate
should be extended beyond its current expiration date.
Seyoum told the GOR that Ethiopia would contribute 5000
troops to the Darfur hybrid force, and the GOR informed
Ethiopia it would contribute one million dollars to
humanitarian relief in Somalia before the end of 2007. End
Summary.
GOR Concerned About Border Tensions
--------------
2. (C) MFA International Organizations Counselor Albert
Sitnikov told us on November 20 that while the GOR supported
UNSC Presidential Statement 9169 urging both Ethiopia and
Eritrea to accept and implement the EEBC's delineation
decision "without preconditions," the GOR was opposed to the
EEBC's idea of "virtual demarcation" and believed it may lead
to violence. According to Sitnikov, Lavrov called virtual
demarcation "legal nonsense." The GOR believed virtual
demarcation falls outside of the Algiers Agreement and that
it was up to involved parties how to demarcate the border.
He said Russia would have to support Ethiopian withdrawal
from the agreement were the EEBC to insist upon virtual
demarcation.
3. (C) Deputy Director for Africa Nikolai Ratsiborinskiy
told us the EEBC's current proposal had paralyzed the
situation. He noted that Lavrov had stated publicly that a
virtual demarcation could destabilize the entire region, and
the GOR believed signals from Asmara and Addis Ababa had
hinted at their readiness to resume conflict.
3. (C) Commenting on the November 7 visit of Ethiopian FM
Seyoum, Ratsiborinskiy said Lavrov told Seyoum privately the
GOR would support Ethiopia's opposition to virtual
demarcation in the UNSC, but also warned Seyoum about
statements and actions that could destabilize the fragile
situation. Ratsiborinskiy told us Seyoum responded that
Ethiopia's economic growth is increasing steadily, and that
Ethiopia would not jeopardize that growth with renewed
conflict. Seyoum pointed out the Ethiopian army is fully
engaged in Somalia and Sudan, and that the Ethiopian
government wants to shrink the army, not entangle it
elsewhere.
Darfur and Somalia
--------------
4. (C) Seyoum announced to the GOR that Ethiopia will
contribute 5000 troops to the hybrid force in Darfur.
Ethiopian political counselor Elias Amare told us that while
the GOR had previously been protective of Sudan's
sovereignty, Seyoum had noted a shift in policy to be more
supportive of the hybrid force. Elias also told us the GOR
announced that it would contribute a million dollars worth of
humanitarian aid to Somalia by the end of 2007, which
Ratsiborinskiy confirmed, citing the GOR's worries about the
continuing chaos and the situation becoming a catalyst for
regional conflict.
MOSCOW 00005474 002 OF 002
Comment
--------------
5. GOR support for the UN Presidential Statement was
carefully worded to support "delineation," not "demarcation."
If Ethiopia does not recognize the EEBC's virtual
demarcation, the GOR has said it will be prepared to take its
side in a UNSC debate.
BURNS
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2017
TAGS: PREL UNSC PBTS ET ER RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBILITY FOR VIOLENCE IN
THE HORN OF AFRICA
REF: SECSTATE 153831
Classified By: M/C for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells for reason 1.4
(b/d).
1. (C) Summary. While the GOR supports UNSC Presidential
Statement 9169 urging both Ethiopia and Eritrea to take
concrete steps to implement the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary
Commission (EEBC)'s delineation decision, the GOR does not
support the EEBC's plan for "virtually" demarcating the
border and believes the EEBC must fulfill its mandate by
implementing a physical border. During Ethiopian FM Seyoum's
November 7 visit to Moscow the GOR warned him about
destabilizing comments and action. The GOR believed the
United Nation Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) mandate
should be extended beyond its current expiration date.
Seyoum told the GOR that Ethiopia would contribute 5000
troops to the Darfur hybrid force, and the GOR informed
Ethiopia it would contribute one million dollars to
humanitarian relief in Somalia before the end of 2007. End
Summary.
GOR Concerned About Border Tensions
--------------
2. (C) MFA International Organizations Counselor Albert
Sitnikov told us on November 20 that while the GOR supported
UNSC Presidential Statement 9169 urging both Ethiopia and
Eritrea to accept and implement the EEBC's delineation
decision "without preconditions," the GOR was opposed to the
EEBC's idea of "virtual demarcation" and believed it may lead
to violence. According to Sitnikov, Lavrov called virtual
demarcation "legal nonsense." The GOR believed virtual
demarcation falls outside of the Algiers Agreement and that
it was up to involved parties how to demarcate the border.
He said Russia would have to support Ethiopian withdrawal
from the agreement were the EEBC to insist upon virtual
demarcation.
3. (C) Deputy Director for Africa Nikolai Ratsiborinskiy
told us the EEBC's current proposal had paralyzed the
situation. He noted that Lavrov had stated publicly that a
virtual demarcation could destabilize the entire region, and
the GOR believed signals from Asmara and Addis Ababa had
hinted at their readiness to resume conflict.
3. (C) Commenting on the November 7 visit of Ethiopian FM
Seyoum, Ratsiborinskiy said Lavrov told Seyoum privately the
GOR would support Ethiopia's opposition to virtual
demarcation in the UNSC, but also warned Seyoum about
statements and actions that could destabilize the fragile
situation. Ratsiborinskiy told us Seyoum responded that
Ethiopia's economic growth is increasing steadily, and that
Ethiopia would not jeopardize that growth with renewed
conflict. Seyoum pointed out the Ethiopian army is fully
engaged in Somalia and Sudan, and that the Ethiopian
government wants to shrink the army, not entangle it
elsewhere.
Darfur and Somalia
--------------
4. (C) Seyoum announced to the GOR that Ethiopia will
contribute 5000 troops to the hybrid force in Darfur.
Ethiopian political counselor Elias Amare told us that while
the GOR had previously been protective of Sudan's
sovereignty, Seyoum had noted a shift in policy to be more
supportive of the hybrid force. Elias also told us the GOR
announced that it would contribute a million dollars worth of
humanitarian aid to Somalia by the end of 2007, which
Ratsiborinskiy confirmed, citing the GOR's worries about the
continuing chaos and the situation becoming a catalyst for
regional conflict.
MOSCOW 00005474 002 OF 002
Comment
--------------
5. GOR support for the UN Presidential Statement was
carefully worded to support "delineation," not "demarcation."
If Ethiopia does not recognize the EEBC's virtual
demarcation, the GOR has said it will be prepared to take its
side in a UNSC debate.
BURNS