THE WEEK IN POLITICS: PUTIN STUMPS FOR, STOMPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005433

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI RS
SUBJECT: THE WEEK IN POLITICS: PUTIN STUMPS FOR, STOMPS
ON, UNITED RUSSIA

REF: A. MOSCOW 5410


B. MOSCOW 5417

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reason: 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (SBU) With just over two weeks remaining until the
December 2 Duma elections, Putin, during a visit to
Krasnoyarsk, at last began actively stumping for the United
Russia party. On November 15, in Tver, about 700 delegates
from 79 of Russia's regions returned the favor by actively
stumping for Putin as "national leader." The Russian
Orthodox Church is scheduled to board the Putin bandwagon, if
there is room, at a meeting with the President scheduled for
November 19. The latest polling indicates that United Russia
with 67 percent of the vote, the Communist Party with 14
percent and, possibly, LDPR (6 percent) will win
representation in the Duma. A party that will not make it
--SPS-- escalated its attacks on Putin in a continuing series
of televised debates (ref a). The Central Election
Commission invited a smaller-then-expected number of ODIHR
observers to its elections, and ODIHR decided not to come.
End summary.

Putin Stumps for YR
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2. (SBU) During a November 13 visit to Krasnoyarsk, Putin at
last began stumping for the party --United Russia (YR)-- he
will lead into the December 2 election. Putin's belated
support for YR followed polls indicating that the party's
ratings had slumped since his October 1 agreement to occupy
positions one, two, and three on YR's federal list. Since
that time, Putin had urged the heads of municipalities and
Muslim spiritual leaders to get their constituents to the
polls but had done little to promote YR. His decision to
campaign in Krasnoyarsk was no doubt a bittersweet one for
YR's leadership, as Putin used the occasion to acknowledge
that the campaign had foundered and that many YR members were
opportunists. Still, the President acknowledged, "we have
nothing better" than YR and, anyway, in voting for YR you are
showing "than you trust me." While Putin urged voters to
substantiate electorally his "moral authority," he continued
to play coy on what, if any, position he might assume
post-presidency. Putin again said that a mandate for YR was
necessary to ensure that progress Russia had made on his
watch would not be undermined.

"For Putin" Stumps For Putin
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3. (SBU) On November 15, 700 delegates from 79 regions
gathered in Tver to attend the founding congress of the
"All-Russian Movement 'For Putin'." The delegates elected a
coordinating committee of seven persons from each Federal
district and three co-chairpersons: lawyer Pavel Astakhov,
who appears to have been a motivating force behind many of
the "spontaneous" "For Putin" rallies around Russia that
preceded the Tver event; surgeon Renat Akchurin; and milkmaid
Natalya Agapova. Delegates also adopted an appeal, which
says that Putin should continue as a national leader who
"will determine the nation's strategic development and ensure
the continuity of state policy." The appeal takes a cue from
Putin in Krasnoyarsk in refusing to identify Putin's
post-presidential role, saying only that "he will identify
his place in the national political system after the
elections." The next "For Putin" event is scheduled for
November 21 in Moscow. It is not clear how the organization
will use the 30 million signatures it has allegedly collected
on Putin's behalf. YR's electoral fund footed the bill for
the Tver event. Immediate reaction to the event was
negative, with 45 percent of those polled having a negative
or very negative reaction to the concept of "national
father," a sign -- prominent newspaper editor Pavel Gusev
said -- that not all Russians are idiots.


4. (SBU) The media report that the Russian Orthodox Church
(ROC) may on November 19 be asked by Putin to urge
parishioners to go to the polls on December 2. Commentators
note that the Church played a similar role in backing Boris
Yeltsin in the 1996 elections. ROC backing, if it extended
explicitly to Putin, would add to the trans-party mandate for
the President that some appear to be attempting to build via
movements like "For Putin."

Latest Polls: YR, KPRF Certain Winners
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5. (SBU) The Levada Center on November 16 released the

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results of a poll conducted November 9 - 13. Levada's latest
numbers predict that 63 percent of voters will go to the
polls on December 2. United Russia at 67 percent will be the
chief beneficiary of their efforts. Only one other party, the
Communists at 14 percent, seems assured of Duma
representation, while Vladimir Zhirinovskiy's LDPR, currently
at 6 percent, may squeak by. Sergey Mironov's Just Russia
appears to have an outside chance of crossing the
seven-percent threshold, but its already slight popularity
has slumped further since Levada's last poll, from five to
four percent. The Levada poll has a three percent margin of
error.


6. (SBU) Not surprisingly, Levada's poll confirmed that most
Russians view the December 2 elections as an affirmation of
the status quo. High on their list of expectations was a
party that would support state subsidies to citizens and the
"symbolic image of a strong state." A large number prefer
order to democratic rights and, in a response that may go
hand-in-hand with that preference, 48 percent are persuaded
that these will be imitation elections, with "the
authorities," not the voters, determining their outcome.

SPS: Throwing Haymakers
--------------


7. (SBU) The Union of Right Forces (SPS) escalated its
rhetoric (reftels) during a week that saw further defections
from party ranks, SPS's decision to participate in a November
24 Other Russia anti-government rally, and an SPS appeal to
the Supreme Court, alleging that Putin should be de-listed
for using his office to openly campaign for YR. The week's
developments demonstrated the degree of the party's
estrangement from a Kremlin it had worked hard, in the early
days of the campaign, to forge an agreement with. The party
will not win representation in the Duma, but it has pioneered
the use of government-controlled television to openly
criticize the cult of personality it alleges has formed
around Putin, and to warn of the increasing sovietization of
Russian political life.

ODIHR Pulls Monitors
--------------


8. (SBU) The MFA reacted to ODIHR's November 16 announcement
that it would not be sending election observers by alleging
that ODIHR was itself responsible for the problems with
accreditation and noting that the GOR would not "over
dramatize" the situation -- a view that has been picked up by
ruling party supporters, including Duma International
Relations Chairman Konstantin Kosachev. The decision to pull
out followed the GOR's decision to limit the number of
observers to seventy. The Central Election Commission's Igor
Borisov expressed surprise at ODIHR's decision and iterated
the CEC's willingness to provide full support to the ODIHR
mission.

Comment
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9. (C) With just over two weeks remaining until voters go to
the polls, it is unlikely that there will be any major
changes in the expected outcome of the election. LDPR seems
at this juncture more likely than Just Russia to find its way
into the Duma, as its six percent is well within the margin
of error and LDPR has historically finished strongly. Still,
Just Russia has friends in high places, is within striking
range of seven percent, and cannot be ruled out. SPS's
decision to join Other Russia's November 24 meeting but, as
SPS Chairman Belykh noted on November 16, not Other Russia
itself, may create pressure on the authorities to squelch a
meeting they have given a greenlight to. Staying their hand
may be the GOR's condemnation of the Georgian government's
crackdown on street action in Tbilisi last week, although
provocations, and a tough response, cannot be excluded on
November 24.


10. (C) Although the "For Putin" movement appears to have YR
sponsorship, indications we have received from other quarters
suggest it is not a Kremlin initiative, and may be nothing
more than another flat-footed attempt by the party to direct
public attention to the central plank of its platform: a
vote for YR is a vote for the President. The key question
remains unanswered: what does Putin intend to do with the
mandate he will receive on December 2?
BURNS