Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MOSCOW5431
2007-11-16 16:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

CALM CAMPAIGN IN RUSSIAN REGION

Tags:  PGOV KDEM SOCI RS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8528
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHMO #5431/01 3201615
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 161615Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5315
INFO RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 005431 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI RS
SUBJECT: CALM CAMPAIGN IN RUSSIAN REGION

REF: A. MOSCOW 03995


B. MOSCOW 04140

Classified By: (U) A/DCM Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.4(B/D).

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 005431

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI RS
SUBJECT: CALM CAMPAIGN IN RUSSIAN REGION

REF: A. MOSCOW 03995


B. MOSCOW 04140

Classified By: (U) A/DCM Alice G. Wells. Reasons 1.4(B/D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Changes in election law have created a "calm" campaign
atmosphere in Voronezh, a city south of Moscow where during a
November 14-15 visit we found scant evidence that a
parliamentary election is about to take place. Local party
representatives said the lack of single-mandate candidates
had resulted in a less competitive campaign than four years
ago. Many complained that United Russia is using
administrative resources to ensure a high turnout for its
party. End summary.

--------------
A Calm Campaign
--------------


2. (C) A November 14-15 visit to Voronezh found a relatively
quite Duma campaign, which local observers attributed to
changes in the election law that eliminated single-mandate
candidates. During the last election, "you would see
leaflets everywhere and candidates on the corners talking to
voters," said Sergey Naumov a candidate on Yabloko's regional
list. "Today, people are scared." United Russia, which
dominates the regional administration was accused by all
other party representatives of using administration resources
to ensure a disproportionate win.

--------------
Just Russia: Visibly Dominant But Suspect
--------------


3. (C) The only party with a visible campaign presence in
Voronezh was Just Russia. Its billboards and campaign
stickers featuring images of their federal and regional
candidates and their message that "Moscow will help," were
found throughout the city. In an earlier trip (ref A),we
heard complaints that Voronezh does not receive enough money
from the federal budget. This had been a dominant issue in
the region and one that had caused disagreement between the
regional and city governments.


4. (C) Despite this recurring complaint, we were told by
Yabloko's Naumov, that Just Russia's message is viewed
negatively. Just Russia's regional candidates "are not
trustworthy -- especially in the business community," said
Naumov, who leads a local business organization. Naumov's

comments were echoed by others who said Just Russia has been
too aggressive in its campaign and the billboards cause
people to wonder where the money comes from.


5. (C) Novaya Gazeta Editor Olga Brener said Just Russia
asked her paper to run an article she referred to as "yellow
journalism." When she refused, Just Russia distributed the
article in mailboxes throughout the region and attempted to
turn the newspaper's refusal into a social justice issue.
United Russia's representative Vyacheslav Agapov said "they
(Just Russia) say what people want to hear, but it's not
backed by action." Anna Milova, Public Relations Officer of
the Regional Administration informed us that a covenant to
conduct fair and clean elections, which was initiated by the
local Public Chamber, was signed by all parties except Just
Russia.


6. (C) As in other areas of the country, Just Russia in
Voronezh has struggled to find its way since Putin decided to
head the United Russia list. Only three months ago Just
Russia was popular in the region and Federation Council
Chairman and party leader Sergey Mironov had visited Voronezh
to much fanfare. Recently, Mayor Boris Skrynnikov switched
his party affiliation from Just Russia to United Russia.
Aleksandr Sysoyev, member of the regional Duma and Just
Russia candidate for the state Duma brushed off this
defection and accused United Russia of pressuring the most
vulnerable people to vote for United Russia. Sysoyev told of
a nurse who had been threatened with being fired if she did
not stop campaigning for Just Russia. Sysoyev said his party
hoped to run a more aggressive campaign but was hampered by
lack of access to public places and the mass media, as well
as United Russia's influence in the region. Despite these
limitations, Sysoyev predicted Just Russia would receive a
minimum 20 percent of the vote. To back up his prediction,
he cited the past success of political party Rodina in the
region. (Just Russia is the product of a merger of Rodina,
the Party of Life and the Party of Pensioners.) He was
confident that Rodina's loyal voters would cast their ballots
for Just Russia.

MOSCOW 00005431 002 OF 003



--------------
Opposition Party Soldiers On
--------------


7. (C) Union of Right Forces' (SPS) party leader Yuriy
Bezdetko, described the campaign to date as "terrible."
Bezdetko reported several incidents in which their rival Just
Russia had been targeted, and he suspected the administration
was behind these acts. They included hooligans defacing Just
Russia billboards and authorities detaining people who
distributed Just Russia leaflets. Bezdetko noted that
attacks on Just Russia have kept the focus off of SPS,
however he said he fully expected SPS to be targeted as well.
Already, the Voronezh office of SPS was vandalized,
paralyzing work for several days. Confiscation of campaign
leaflets or difficulty finding printers to produce SPS
materials was a problem in several regions of Russia but had
not occurred in Voronezh "yet" according to Bezdetko. He
said this is due to his strategy of "not putting all eggs in
one basket."

--------------
Communists
--------------


8. (C) The Communist party (KPRF) representatives reported
that their voters increasingly are coming from urban areas.
Communist party regional duma deputy and state duma candidate
Sergey Rudakov predicted that KPRF will gain the votes of
those who would have voted "against all," an option that has
been removed in this election. Rudakov said efforts to
attract young people to their party are succeeding. He noted
the participation in the Communist factions of the regional
and city Duma of deputies in their 30s. Rudakov said he
agreed with the elimination of single-mandate candidates
because "rich people were buying the mandates." If two
parties make it to the Duma -- United Russia and KPRF -- it
will be huge political progress, Rudakov said.

-------------- --------------
United Russia Prepares for Elections; Plans Celebration
-------------- --------------


9. (C) The President's decision to head the United Russia
ticket was a blow to opposition parties and an unexpected
"sensation" for United Russia, according to party
representative Vyacheslaw Agapov. He said their local
campaign is in full force and will be "clean and fair."
Agapov said they are under pressure to ensure a high turnout
for United Russia but noted there would be no "Nazarbayev
effect." He had no doubt they would receive a high
percentage of the vote. They are so confident of their
victory that they are prepared to start working December 3,
"but we will celebrate first."


10. (C) Vladimir Selyanin, the head of the regional election
commission, who joined United Russia in August, had adjusted
his expectations for voter turnout. In August, Selyanin
said, his goal was 75-80 percent (ref B). In a meeting
November 15 he noted that while public opinion polls suggest
60 percent, he was hoping for 70 percent. He said their
preparations included engaging 16,000 people to work on
behalf of the election commission, sending invitations to
every family on voter lists, verifying their information, and
informing voters about election day procedures. There will
be 1,670 polling stations in the Voronezh region of which 400
are in the city. Based on previous elections, Selyanin said
he expects 8,000-12,000 domestic observers including
political party representatives, representatives of
candidates and journalists. Selyanin, who has held his
position since 1993, said the biggest challenge they would
face on election day was finding a common language between
observers and election commission members. And, he noted, the
weather was of concern given that many of the rural districts
in their region are vast and residents are often unable to
leave their homes. Selyanin said the only complaints have
been from voters who have called to ask if ads they have seen
are legal and to question who paid for them.

--------------
Media Plays Minor Role in Campaign
--------------


11. (C) Novaya Gazeta editor Brener told us the campaign has
been difficult to assess because the press is not
participating as it normally would. She acknowledged that it
sounded strange that a newspaper like Novaya Gazeta would not
be involved given its political orientation but she said
political parties are only interested in paying to have their
articles published without allowing the newspaper to make
that fact known to readers. The newspaper has refused to
accept these submissions. Brener said the people of Voronezh

MOSCOW 00005431 003 OF 003


are tired of aggressive campaigns. She predicted turnout
will be minimal despite the pressure on United Russia. In
general, people want stability which benefits United Russia
and KPRF. The newspaper's relationship with the
administration is better than one would expect. The biggest
challenge is financial due to low ad sales. Despite their
occasional criticism of the administration, she described
officials as open and professional, which she attributed to
Voronezh's rural orientation where personal contacts matter
most.

--------------
Comment
--------------


12. (C) United Russia will continue to dominate Voronezh, and
the only intrigue surrounds the prospects of Just Russia.
While all opposition parties will spend the next two weeks
working to reach voters in one form or another, the tide of
administrative resources will continue to work against them.





BURNS