Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MOSCOW5412
2007-11-16 11:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

GOR SYMPATHIZES WITH MUSHARRAF

Tags:  PGOV PREL IN PK RS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8227
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHMO #5412 3201153
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 161153Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5286
INFO RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 2362
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1133
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005412 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN PK RS
SUBJECT: GOR SYMPATHIZES WITH MUSHARRAF

REF: MOSCOW 4420

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4(b/d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005412

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN PK RS
SUBJECT: GOR SYMPATHIZES WITH MUSHARRAF

REF: MOSCOW 4420

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reasons 1.4(b/d).


1. (C) Summary: The MFA tells us that the deteriorating
domestic situation and limited political options
"understandably" forced Musharraf to declare a state of
emergency in Pakistan. MFA Pakistan Desk Chief Andrey
Starkov argued that Musharraf had to prevent the invalidation
of his re-election by the Pakistani Supreme Court and needed
additional powers to fight extremists. The GOR is skeptical
of proposals for a Musharraf-Bhutto power sharing agreement
and doubts any leader but Musharraf could maintain stability
and government control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. The
GOR hopes Pakistani parliamentary elections will go forward,
which could help ease the tense political situation. Putin
and Indian Prime Minister Singh agreed during their November
12 meeting in Moscow that for now, Musharraf is the best hope
of keeping Pakistan stable. The GOR has had limited contact
with the GOP since the state of emergency was declared, which
Starkov stressed was in keeping with the GOR's practice of
limiting ties with Pakistan to avoid harming its relationship
with India. End summary.

MFA: Musharraf's Options Limited
--------------


2. (C) On November 14, MFA Head of Department for Pakistan
Andrey Starkov told us that the GOR "understood" Musharraf's
decision to proclaim a state of emergency in Pakistan, given
the rapidly unraveling political and security situation.
With the Pakistani Supreme Court about to declare Musharraf's
October 6 re-election invalid, and reports of increased
terrorist activity by Islamic extremists, Musharraf was
forced to take action to preserve both his political position
and national stability. Starkov believed Musharraf's
decision was based "75 percent" on the pending decision by
the Supreme Court and "25 percent" on gaining additional
powers to tackle terrorism. Should the Supreme Court have
declared Musharraf's re-election invalid, this would have led
to even greater political turmoil in the country, which
extremists would have sought to exploit. Starkov conceded
that the state of emergency damaged what legitimacy Musharraf
had, but wondered what other options were open to him.


3. (C) Starkov reiterated the GOR's view that Musharraf is
the only person capable of maintaining stability in Pakistan
and keeping the nation's nuclear arsenal under control -- the
Russian priority in Pakistan (reftel). He dismissed
proposals for a Musharraf-Bhutto power sharing arrangement as
unworkable and said the GOR viewed neither former Prime
Minister Bhutto nor Sharif capable of maintaining Pakistani
stability.


4. (C) When asked, Starkov said the GOR's position on
Musharraf was not at odds with the MFA's November 6 public
statement calling for a "return to the democratic process."
The GOR hoped Pakistani parliamentary elections would be held
by January 2008, which could help settle the current
political turmoil in the country. Starkov posited that
Musharraf would not give in to U.S. calls to end the state of
emergency, but might ease restrictions on political activity
so the elections would be considered legitimate.

Putin and Singh Agree on Musharraf
--------------


5. (C) Starkov told us that during Indian PM Singh's November
12 meeting with Putin, the Prime Minister asked Putin his
opinion on events in Pakistan. A cautious Putin deflected
the question back to Singh and asked what India's thoughts
were about its neighbor. In the end, Starkov said Putin and
Singh agreed that while the current situation in Pakistan was
not optimal, Musharraf was a known entity who remained the
best chance for maintaining stability.

Little GOR Contact With Pakistan
--------------


6. (C) Starkov told us that GOR contact with the Pakistani
government regarding the state of emergency has been limited
to meetings between the Russian Ambassador in Islamabad and
the Pakistani MFA. Starkov said, and the Pakistani Embassy
confirmed, that no discussions have taken place in Moscow,
which was in keeping with typically limited Russia-Pakistan
contacts. Starkov reiterated that Russia's relationship with
India is a GOR priority, and Russian ties with Pakistan
reflect this fact (reftel).
BURNS