Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MOSCOW5266
2007-11-02 17:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

PUTIN'S EU SPECIAL ADVISOR ON EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT,

Tags:  PREL PGOV BK RS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0003
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMO #5266/01 3061710
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 021710Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5032
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005266 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK RS
SUBJECT: PUTIN'S EU SPECIAL ADVISOR ON EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT,
POLAND, FRANCE


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Daniel A. Russell FOR REASONS
1.4 (B,D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 005266

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK RS
SUBJECT: PUTIN'S EU SPECIAL ADVISOR ON EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT,
POLAND, FRANCE


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Daniel A. Russell FOR REASONS
1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: In a November 1 meeting with the Ambassador,
Putin's EU Special Advisor Sergey Yastrzhembskiy
characterized the Mafra EU-Russia Summit in generally
positive terms. Yastrzhembskiy argued that the summit was a
step forward and that EU-Russia relations are "evolving,"
citing the two documents on steel trade and joint
counter-narcotics measures, agreement to establish an energy
early warning system, the investment dialogue, and the
Russian-proposed human rights center in Europe. However,
Yastrzhembskiy remained concerned that the West's recognition
of Kosovo's unilateral independence would unleash a "chain
reaction" in Georgia and many countries in Europe. On WTO,
Yastrzhembskiy said that Putin for the first time warned EU
leaders that Russia would repeal its bilateral commitments
already in force if the EU failed to set a deadline soon for
an agreement. The MFA added that there was also disagreement
on the EU's proposed energy unbundling requirements.
Yastrzhembskiy positively assessed Russia's relationship with
France, and expected that the recent improvement in
Russian-Polish relations would eventually lead to the signing
of a PCA with the EU. End Summary.

Positive Aspects of EU-Russia Summit
--------------


2. (C) In a November 1 meeting with the Ambassador, Putin's
Special Advisor for EU Relations Sergey Yastrzhembskiy
described the EU-Russia Summit in Mafra as a "step forward"
in the relationship. Although the previous EU-Russia Summit
had been widely viewed as fruitless, he argued that the
discussions in Samara had served as a basis for the "concrete
results and actions" achieved in Mafra. Aside from the two
documents on steel trade and joint counter-narcotics
measures, Yastrzhembskiy provided as evidence of the
"evolutionary nature" of Russia-EU relations several areas of
agreement:

-- Early Warning Notification: Yastrzhembskiy said the EU
seemed particularly pleased with the agreement to establish
an early warning system on energy issues. He explained that
the agreement comprised two parts: 1) the joint development

of methods to minimize and prevent problems in energy supply
and transit and 2) the joint development of "quick-response"
procedures to handle emergency situations.

-- Border Cooperation: Yastrzhembskiy said Putin made it
clear that Russia wanted to move away from a
"donor-recipient" relationship with TACIS and move towards
genuine partnership and co-financing. Yastrzhembskiy said
the EU was pleased to hear from Russia that it would be
willing to contribute one-third of the 325 million Euros for
the seven border-related projects that would run from
2008-2013.

-- Investment Dialogue: Yastrzhembskiy said Russia supported
the German Chancellor's investment dialogue initiative, but
stressed that the EU should not be concerned about Russian
legislation on foreign investment. Russia understands
"perfectly well" how important foreign investment is for
Russian economic growth, and pointed to foreign investors'
49% stake in the Shtokman gas field project.

-- Human Rights Center: Yastrzhembskiy described Russia's
proposal to establish in a European capital a Russian
organization that monitors human rights in Europe as a "very
good idea," noting that it would be strange for EU countries
to object to such an initiative. He said that Putin
clarified for the EU leaders that Russia was not seeking EU
participation or approval of this project; Russia would
finance and operate this center. Yastrzhembskiy told the
Ambassador that the center, which would be "truly
non-governmental and non-commercial in nature," would most
likely be set up in Paris, given relatively relaxed French
laws regarding NGOs. He noted that the human rights center
is a work in progress, and the GOR will provide more
information "when decisions are made." (The MFA separately
told us the GOR planned to invest more than one million Euros
in the center.)

Russia Unsatisfied with WTO Negotiations
--------------


3. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question on
discussions on WTO, Yastrzhembskiy said that Putin made clear
to EU leaders that the GOR was unsatisfied with the process.
Putin accused the EU of constantly moving the goal posts for
what Russia needed to do to satisfy EU concerns.
Yastrzhembskiy said that Putin warned the EU leaders for the
first time that the EU must identify a deadline for the

completion of a bilateral agreement, or Russia would be
forced to "step away" from bilateral obligations and
commitments that it has already assumed as an aspiring WTO
member.


4. (C) Putin recalled for the EU leaders his conversation
with former President Clinton in his last days in office.
Clinton advised Putin not to make the mistake of thinking
that the next U.S. president would be more flexible in his
approach to Russia. Similarly, Putin cautioned the EU
leaders not to mistakenly assume that Putin's successor would
be more flexible on WTO. Yastrzhembskiy said Putin urged the
EU to take advantage of Putin's remaining time in office to
reach an agreement on WTO, noting that as an outgoing
president he was in a much better position to withstand
domestic criticism on accession. Yastrzhembskiy assured the
Ambassador that Russia was ready and willing to tackle the
two remaining issues for the EU -- railroad and timber
tariffs -- if the EU provided clarity on the "endgame."

EU Energy Unbundling Requirements Will Only Hurt the EU
-------------- --------------


5. (C) MFA European Cooperation Department Unit Head Dmitriy
Polanskiy separately told us Putin warned EU leaders that, if
proposed energy unbundling requirements are put into effect,
the result would be a sharp (up to 3 times) increase in the
price of fuel for European consumers, due to the cost of
restructuring Russian energy companies. Polanskiy told us
that Putin said that now, Russia is dealing with six or seven
major companies, but if the legislation is adopted, they may
have to deal with thirty or more. The cost would be passed
directly to European countries, who "shouldn't blame Russia"
for price increases. According to European diplomats, Putin
noted a "general protectionist" trend in the EU towards
Russia, and said Russia would have to treat EU countries in
the same way. Polanskiy said that the GOR will not elaborate
on possible retaliatory measures until the draft package is
adopted.

Kosovo's Independence: A Lose-Lose Scenario for Everybody
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Yastrzhembskiy said there was general satisfaction
with the work of the Troika, but noted that there was still
little hope for success. Yastrzhembskiy repeated Russia's
familiar position that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of
independence (UDI) would set off a "domino effect" and
unleash a "chain reaction" in separatist regions around the
world, starting off with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He
stressed that there is little unity in the EU on Kosovo,
given that separatists in Spain, Scotland, Northern Cyprus,
and in the Balkan countries of Macedonia, Montenegro, and
Bosnia and Herzegovina are also closely following
developments in Kosovo and view Kosovo as "an important
signal." Yastrzhembskiy added that Kosovo's UDI would put
Russia in a "terribly difficult" position. He told the
Ambassador that Putin would face tremendous domestic
pressure, especially in light of the Russian electoral
season, to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However,
such a move could stir up separatist tendencies in the
Caucasus. Yastrzhembskiy stressed that Kosovo's UDI would
only lead to a "lose-lose scenario for everybody."

Relations with Poland on the Upswing
--------------


7. (C) Yastrzhembskiy said there was no discussion of the
PCA during the summit, but confirmed that on its eve, Poland
formally invited Russia to inspect Polish meat products.
Yastrzhembskiy expected the Russian inspectors to begin their
inspections in the second half of November. Pointing out
that PM-designate Donald Tusk's first foreign trips will be
Washington, Brussels, and Moscow, Yastrzhembskiy said that
Russia is expecting an improvement in bilateral relations
with Poland, which will likely lead to the removal of
Poland's veto on the signing of a PCA.

Relations with France Still Strong
--------------


8. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question,
Yastrzhembskiy said he has not observed a worsening in
bilateral relations with France since President Sarkozy took
office. Yastrzhembskiy conceded that Sarkozy is no Chirac,
but insisted that Sarkozy still wants to maintain close
relations with Russia. He noted that Putin and Sarkozy have
already met on two occasions, and PM Zubkov will soon be
traveling to Paris to continue discussions on the joint
aerospace, digital TV, and Shtokman projects.
Russell