CORRECTED COPY: RUSSIAN NATIONALIST GOES TO NATO:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 005230

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NATO RS
SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY: RUSSIAN NATIONALIST GOES TO NATO:
OFFERS CONSTRUCTIVE APPROACH

REF: A. MOSCOW 3262

B. 06 MOSCOW 10227

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns: 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) Summary: Russia's charismatic nationalist
politician, Dmitriy Rogozin, confirmed press reports that he
will be appointed the GOR's next Ambassador to NATO and
expects to arrive in Brussels by late November. Claiming
that his appointment is a Putin initiative, Rogozin candidly
described exchanging life in the political wilderness for
what he expects to be a larger-than-normal ambassadorial
writ. At pains to counter his record of lambasting NATO and
his previous controversial service representing Russia at the
Parliamentary Council of Europe, Rogozin emphasized a
"constructive and responsible" approach and acknowledged
Russia's share of blame in preventing the NRC from becoming
more dynamic. Some experts depict Rogozin's possible
appointment as a GOR sign of displeasure with NATO. Rogozin
is a talented, if profoundly amoral, politician, whose
behavior in Brussels will be calibrated closely to the
signals that he receives from the Kremlin. Biographic
details are provided. End Summary

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Mr. Rogozin Goes to Brussels
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2. (C) In an October 26 meeting, Duma member Dmitriy
Rogozin confirmed press reports that he was soon to be tapped
as Russia's next Ambassador to NATO, in line with his
previous hints that the Kremlin would offer him an important
foreign policy posting (ref a). While noting that
bureaucratic formalities remained and formal congratulations
were premature, Rogozin stressed that his appointment was a
Putin initiative and he expected to be in Brussels by the end
of November. Rogozin described his position as an
"Ambassador-Plus" or "super ambassadorship," with direct
lines of communication to the Kremlin and little interference
from the MFA bureaucracy. His writ would extend as far as
necessary to drive home Russian points on NATO relations, and
Rogozin suggested that he would reach out to U.S. leaders and
European parliamentarians from his new diplomatic perch.
Despite his political problems, Rogozin insisted that his
personal rapport with Putin had always been good.

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Why Rogozin, Why Brussels?
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3. (C) Rogozin was candid about the reasons driving his
appointment. Foremost, he noted, was the geographical
distance between Brussels and Moscow, during a sensitive
political transition, when the Kremlin sought to eliminate
all electoral surprises. Acknowledging the "zero tolerance"
that Putin's inner circle had for his popular brand of Great
Russian nationalism, Rogozin said it was clear that he had no
immediate political future in this country. Rogozin pointed
to a GOR-campaign to portray him as a xenophobe-zealot (and
"who is the zealot now?" Rogozin crowed),to the invitation
(that could not be refused) to merge his Rodina party into
the bureaucratic and ultimately moribund Just Russia
political coalition (ref b),and to the Central Election
Commission's ruling against the registration of Rogozin's
follow-on political movement, "Great Russia," as proof that
Russian electoral politics were off-limits. Rogozin added
that a Kremlin offer of the governorship of Voronezh was too
small a political palette to be tempting.


4. (C) Despite media commentary that has focused on
Rogozin's bad boy reputation while representing Russia at the
Parliamentary Council of Europe (PACE) in 1999-2001, Rogozin
claimed that Putin viewed him as a problem solver, as someone
who had successfully navigated the negotiations over the
Kaliningrad transit regime, and as a vigorous and articulate
spokesman, who could be counted upon to defend Russian
national interests on missile defense, CFE, and Kosovo. In
contrast to incumbent Ambassador Totskiy, Rogozin described
himself as a "man of Europe," steeped in European
institutions, and conversant in English, French, and Italian.
Based on his son's participation in a NATO information
program, Rogozin said he was impressed with the NATO public
relations machinery and argued that among his priorities was
creating a constituency for NATO in Russia, perhaps through
the establishment of a NATO Institute. Ridding the Russian
NATO mission of deadwood was another priority, and Rogozin
mused about the need to "clean up the cadre."

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Constructive and Responsible Approach Promised
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5. (C) At several junctures, Rogozin reiterated his intent
to work responsibly and constructively within NATO to enhance
the work of the NATO-Russia Council and to resolve policy
disputes over European security architecture and missile
defense. He clarified that earlier public statements to the
effect that NATO was "dead" were really a misinterpretation
of his position that expansion would weaken the ideological
coherence and ultimate effectiveness of the organization (See
paragraph 10 for samples of Rogozin's statements on NATO).
NATO was not an enemy, but a neighbor, and Rogozin said he
viewed his appointment as an opportunity to strengthen
relations; his appointment was not a Trojan horse.


6. (C) Rogozin was not up to speed on the NATO agenda, but
made the following general policy points:

-- Putin's offer to cooperate in Qabala should not be
underestimated or taken for granted. It was made over the
objections of senior advisers, and had incurred some
criticism. The West needed to understand that this was a
strategic offer.

-- Russia's disagreement on Kosovo was principled, and the
potential for a unilateral declaration of independence to
cause a serious setback in relations was real.

-- Afghanistan was an area of clear overlapping strategic
interests. Narcotics were poisoning Russian youth,
corrupting border guard and law enforcement organs, and
financing the resurgence of the Taliban. More should be done
in NATO-Russia channels.

-- Putin was disappointed by the absence of "real"
cooperation at NATO, with Rogozin stating that the Russians
deserved the lion's share of the blame for the stalemate.

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Dmitriy Rogozin: Frustrated Cynic
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7. (C) Experts believe that Rogozin is sure to cause a stir
when he arrives in Brussels. While all agree that he will
follow orders from the Kremlin, some argue that any
instructions he receives that are anti-NATO in character will
be carried out with much enthusiasm. Rogozin also enjoys
living the high life, they said, and will take full advantage
of Brussels in this regard.


8. (C) Konstantin Eggert, Editor-in-Chief of the BBC in
Moscow, studied with Rogozin at MGU. He characterized
Rogozin as a cynic who is frustrated by his inability to play
a major role in Russian politics. He called Rogozin's
appointment as Ambassador to NATO a "silly gesture designed
to show NATO what Russia thinks of it." Vyacheslav Nikonov,
President of the Unity in the Name of Russian Foundation,
agreed, telling the newspaper Kommersant, "appointing someone
who has always disliked NATO is a sign that Russian
authorities are highly displeased with the Alliance's
policies." On a positive note, Eggert said that Rogozin
truly understands Russian politics and will have access to
Kremlin decision-makers.

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Comment
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9. (C) Rogozin is one of Russia's most charismatic and
ambitious politicians, whose personal charm is belied by his
willingness to join arms with unreconstructed racists,
chauvinists and anti-Semites in pursuit of electoral gain.
While claiming that he has never betrayed his political
principles, Rogozin strikes us as unlikely to be bound by any
code. Instead, his policy positions and his personal
demeanor in Brussels will be carefully calibrated to reflect
the political winds blowing from the Kremlin. If given the
writ, Rogozin can be an effective diplomat and negotiator; if
told to stymie policy, he will be a formidable foe.

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Biographic Information
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10. (U) Dmitriy Olegovich Rogozin. Born, December 21, 1963,
Moscow.

Education
--------------
- 1986 -- Graduated from Moscow State University, Journalism
faculty.


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- 1988 -- Graduated from Marxism-Leninism University,
Economic faculty. Diploma: "The U.S. Psychological War
against Cuba." Supported preservation of the Soviet Union.

- 1999 -- Received Doctorate from Moscow State University.
Doctoral thesis: "Problems of Russia's National Security on
the Edge of the 21st Century."

Professional Experience
--------------
- 1992 -- Co-founded People's Patriotic Movement "Congress of
Russian Societies."

- 03/1997 -- Elected to Duma, joined "People's Deputy Group."
Member of Commission on the Impeachment of President Yeltsin.

- 1998 -- Joined Yuriy Luzhkov's "Fatherland" Party.

- 1999 -- Left "Fatherland" Party. Reelected to Duma, and
elected Chairman of the Duma International Affairs Committee.
Head of Parliamentary Delegation to PACE.

- 2002-2003 -- Designated Special Presidential Envoy to the
Parliamentary Council of Europe on the Issues Related to the
Settlement of the Kaliningrad Problem and other Russia-EU
problems.

- 10/2003 -- Elected Co-Chairman of the Supreme Council of
the "Rodina" Party.

- 12/2003 -- Reelected to Duma, appointed Deputy Duma Speaker.

- 03/2004 -- Became Chairman of "Rodina" Faction.

- 2006 -- Resigned from Head of Faction, and later resigned
from Party Chairman post.

- 2007 -- Co-founded "Great Russia" Party.

Rogozin is married. He and his current wife are expecting
their first child. He has a grown son and grandson, with a
granddaughter on the way, from a previous marriage.

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Statements on NATO
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11. (U) Among Rogozin's statements on NATO are the
following:

-- "It won't be NATO if Russia joins" -- February 20, 2001;

-- "Relations between NATO and Russia should be considered as
relations between two alliances, as allies" -- January 14,
2002;

-- "NATO has been transformed into some sort of "loose" bloc
in which the United States has less and less consideration of
other members" -- May 13, 2003;

-- (Regarding NATO expansion) "The closer the NATO bases, the
easier to hit them. It is more a military issue than a
political one. Our military will be able to take care of
that" -- December 12, 2003;

-- "This NATO enlargement represents a real threat to the
state security and to the security of the President's home
town. They (NATO) should realize, "friendship is friendship,
but keep your powder separate" -- March 29, 2004;

-- "NATO is an organization where U.S. satellites can prove
their loyalty" -- April 2, 2004;

-- "NATO, EU, USA - are the real players of modern history,
and Russia is forced to interact with them, trying to protect
its own interests. The main principle of modern policy is
"first come, first serve," and we should remember it, bearing
in mind that Russia's only allies are its Navy, Army, and Air
Force" -- April 7, 2004;

-- "NATO is a dying organization" -- February 10, 2006.
Burns