RUSSIA'S SILENT CONCERN OVER CHINESE ASAT TEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000522

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
TAGS: PARM MCAP PREL RS CH
SUBJECT: RUSSIA'S SILENT CONCERN OVER CHINESE ASAT TEST

REF: A. STATE 7445

B. MOSCOW 402

Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells.
Reasons 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Moscow's relatively muted reaction to
Beijing's test of an anti-satellite missile last month belies
its deep concern about a pending arms race in space. Caught
offguard by Beijing's action and unprepared to meet the
challenge, Russian officials have publicly downplayed the
significance of the test and, in some cases, implicitly
blamed US policy for initiating the drive to militarize
space. Russia will be pressed to respond in kind, but it
remains unclear whether the country currently has the
technological prowess to keep pace with the US. In the
short- to medium-term, Moscow will likely continue to call
for a formal ban on weaponization of space. END SUMMARY.
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NO OUTWARD OFFICIAL CONCERN ...
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2. (C) Moscow's reaction to Beijing's January 11 test of an
anti-satellite missile (ASAT) has been relatively muted,
partly because it occurred more or less at the same time as
the media trumpeted the proposed deployment of US missile
defense components in Poland and the Czech Republic
(reftels),which Russian officials regard with greater
concern. Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov initially dismissed
reports of the successful destruction of a satellite by a
Chinese missile but later said simply that Russia opposed
deployment of military strike systems in space. President
Vladimir Putin, echoing the views of many in the country's
defense establishment, implied that US space policy extending
back to the 1980s sparked the Chinese drive to counter US
capabilities, which could lead to a new arms race. The US,
said Putin, had "let the genie out of the bottle."


3. (C) At a January 29 session of the US-Russia Strategic
Security Dialogue, Deputy FM Sergey Kislyak also tried to
downplay the test, telling U/S for Arms Control and
International Security Joseph that Moscow viewed the Chinese
test as a signal of Beijing's concern about space weapons,
which did not necessarily suggest an intent to develop such
weapons. Kislyak proposed consideration of a ban on
weaponization of space, as well as other confidence building
measures, to mitigate the potential for an arms race.


4. (C) Oleg Burmistrov, Chief of the Political-Military
Section in the Foreign Ministry's North America Department,
echoed Kislyak's views and suggested to us that the Chinese
test was not militarily significant or a threat to Russian
interests. Burmistrov encouraged the US strongly to renounce
militarization of space in order to head off a possible new
arms race.
.
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... BUT DEEP DOWN WE'RE WORRIED
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5. (C) Independent defense analyst Pavel Felgengauer told us
that Moscow was worried about the implications of the Chinese
test. Russia did not currently have the technological
capability to match the US in space, which would force Moscow
to continue to press for a formal ban on weaponization in the
short- to medium-term, at least until Russia had reviewed its
options. Felgengauer added that Russian officials had been
dismayed by China's neglect in informing them in advance of
the test, as well as by the Russian defense establishment's
failure to detect it immediately or to recognize its
significance.


6. (C) Ivan Safranchuk of the World Security Institute also
said Moscow was not happy about China's ASAT test. Russia
had engaged in considerable diplomatic efforts to prevent an
arms race in space and wanted to preserve space as
weapons-free. China and Russia, as strategic partners, had
previously taken the ethical high ground with their criticism
of US efforts to design space-based weapons platforms and
support systems. Safranchuk continued that China's ASAT test
could be interpreted as an escalation of an arms race in
space which, until now, Russia had deliberately refrained
from joining. The Chinese test had undermined both Beijing's
and Moscow's diplomatic positions. He also asserted that

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Beijing had previously denied that it was pursuing any type
of ASAT program. In the wake of the January 11 test, Russian
trust in China will likely suffer.


7. (C) Safranchuk said he expected the US to respond to the
Chinese challenge, leading to a further escalation. In spite
of Russian officials' attempts to downplay the significance
of the test, Safranchuk thought Moscow would also be forced
to respond, potentially leading to a costly arms race
involving the US, China, Russia, and possibly other nations.
In the meantime, Russia will not openly criticize China since
the two countries remain strategic partners, but Moscow is
"silently unhappy" with these latest developments.
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COMMENT
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8. (C) Faced with missile-related challenges on opposite
sides of its borders, it remains to be seen how Russia will
respond to the Chinese ASAT test. Official GOR statements
suggest that Russia currently lacks the technological prowess
to keep pace with the US in space, and many of its
space-based reconnaissance systems are of dubious reliability
as a result of deterioration during the 1990s. Until Russia
determines how it will respond to this latest challenge,
Moscow will likely continue to press for a formal ban on
weaponization of space as an interim measure at least.
BURNS