Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MOSCOW5177
2007-10-26 15:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

RUSSIA'S SLOW RETURN TO SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA:

Tags:  PREL ETRD EMIN XA RS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0596
PP RUEHDBU RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHMO #5177/01 2991514
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261514Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4885
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0370
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005177 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: PREL ETRD EMIN XA RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA'S SLOW RETURN TO SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA:
ECONOMICS, NOT IDEOLOGY

Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells
for reasons 1.4 (b/d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005177

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: PREL ETRD EMIN XA RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIA'S SLOW RETURN TO SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA:
ECONOMICS, NOT IDEOLOGY

Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells
for reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary. In a series of meetings with a visiting INR
analyst, Russian experts and MFA officials stressed that
Russia is gaining ground slowly in Africa after its post-Cold
War retrenchment. Russia is a firmly established player in
the mining sector, where its advanced mining technology is a
good fit with African raw materials, and provides renewed
access to metals lost to former Soviet Republics. The
construction of power plants could become big business, with
one completed and several others on the drawing board, while
cooperation in oil and gas production is not a significant
factor at this time. Despite Russia's stated desires to
become a donor nation, they have developed unilateral
capacity very slowly and all significant aid has been through
the G8. The GOR predicts AFRICOM will damage U.S. prestige
in the region, but is open to partnership in the training of
local peacekeepers for African missions. End Summary.

Relations: We Can Rebuild Them Better, Stronger than Before
-------------- --------------


2. (C). In an October 23 meeting, MFA Senior Counselor for
Africa Oleg Vlasov told us that Russia is "returning to
Africa." After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia's
relationship with Africa evolved into a foundation of
economic, not ideological, ties, and Russia has used the end
of the Cold War to penetrate new -- formerly U.S.-allied --
markets. Although the overall volume of trade is still
small, he said that it has been increasing by 25 percent a
year to reach $4 billion in 2006, with $1.5 billion of that
in sub-Saharan Africa. He noted that Russia's Ambassador to
Ethiopia was recently accredited to the African Union, and
pointed to FM Lavrov's 2006 and former PM Fradkov's 2007
trips to southern Africa and a recent flurry of African
foreign ministers in Moscow as evidence that Russia's
political involvement is returning to Soviet-era levels.


3. (C) Dr. Vladimir Shubin, Deputy Director of the Institute
of African Studies, elaborated that after the fall of the

Soviet Union, there was a decidedly "racist" tone to the
GOR's withdrawal from Africa, with "liberals" blaming Soviet
overextension to the third world for Russian poverty in the
1990s. He pointed to PM Primakov's engagement in 1996 as the
beginning of "Russian" expansion, but said that it had not
been fully realized until the early 2000s and even today was
not as vigorous as it could be.

Gorwing Economic Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Russian aluminum company United Company RUSAL bought
a Nigerian smelting plant in 2006 for $200 million, the
largest Russian direct investment to date in Africa, Vlasov
told us. According to the U.S./Russia investment advisory
firm PBN Company, four Russian companies -- Norilsk Nickel,
Rusal, Renova, and Alrosa -- have invested more than $5
billion in sub-Saharan Africa in the past three years.
Renaissance Capital has organized the first two large
international equity placements in Africa -- $300 million
each for United Bank of Africa and Access Bank of Nigeria.
Some companies are looking to invest in agricultural
plantations for tropical fruits and commodities in Ghana and
fishing rights in Madagascar as well, Shubin said.


5. (C) Relations between Russia and oil-producing nations of
sub-Saharan Africa were weaker than might be expected, Vlasov
told us, noting that Russian companies had plenty of domestic
oil supply to keep them busy. He told us there have been
some talks about drilling offshore in Nigeria and in northern
Namibia, but no action is likely in the near future.
Russian-built power stations, he said, are more realistic,
with one already online, and plans for two more in Angola,
and talks in progress for others in Ghana, Benin, and
Namibia.


6. (C) In the mining sector, Russian technical expertise and
African raw materials coincide, Shubin told us, and predicted
this would be one of the fastest-growing partnerships.
Russian mining company Renova plans to invest $1 billion in
mining manganese and chromium, and Vlasov noted that diamond
mining in South Africa was a growing sector. Shubin noted
that Russia lost access to many of these metals located in
other former Soviet republics, and that the quality of
African minerals was generally higher than remaining Russian
deposits.

RosAid, Anyone?
--------------

MOSCOW 00005177 002 OF 002




7. (C) According to Vlasov, Russia has forgiven 11.3 billion
dollars in debt to African countries in connection with G8
commitments, the most of any country. However, he admitted
that, despite Russia's expressed interest in becoming a donor
nation, the GOR has taken little action. In 2007, Putin
adopted a proposal to create an aid ministry, and Vlasov
hoped that it would become functional in a few years. Shubin
noted that Russia has been talking about this agency for
three years, and "has yet to even come up with a name." He
said that Russia was "losing prestige," in both African
countries and the wider international community, with the
delay.

No Consensus on AFRICOM...
--------------


8. (C) Vlasov told us the GOR is paying "great attention" to
the development of AFRICOM and thinks it could be a useful
body to combat terrorism and help stabilize volatile areas in
Africa. However, he noted that the GOR recognizes that some
African countries may see it as "colonial," and noted
suspicions that the location of a base in the oil-rich Gulf
of Guinea was "not picked by chance." Shubin thought the
idea of AFRICOM was "a disaster" which will distort relations
between African countries and will project the image of the
U.S. using its military to protect oil interests. While he
thinks AFRICOM might help the U.S. "narrowly" and in the
short term, he said that the U.S. is "destroying its own
prestige" in Africa with this move.

...But Interested in Peacekeeping Cooperation
--------------


9. (C) According to Vlasov, the Russian Ministry of the
Interior trains 80 peacekeepers per year in Moscow, as well
as more at peacekeeping centers in Africa, and notes Russian
involvement in all international peacekeeping operations in
sub-Saharan Africa. He said that training local peacekeepers
was an area where closer Russian-U.S. cooperation and shared
expertise could be productive.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Russia's return to Africa remains a low priority for
the GOR, which is letting business relations lead the way.
As Russia expands it global presence, high-level "courtesy
calls" and political contact may expand, but Russia will not
likely expend the effort to emulate Chinese penetration of
sub-Saharan Africa in the near future.
Burns