ODIHR WAITS FOR INVITE FROM RUSSIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 005119

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM OSCE RS
SUBJECT: ODIHR WAITS FOR INVITE FROM RUSSIA


Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs Alice G. Wells
for reasons 1.4 (b/d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The wait continues for an invitation to the OSCE's
Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR)
to monitor Russia's upcoming Duma elections. The Central
Election Commission (CEC) will not issue the invitation until
it has completed registering party lists, leaving little
possibility for ODIHR to conduct an assessment and long-term
observer mission by December 2. In addition to the delay in
issuing the invitation, the GOR is likely to attach
conditions on the mission and the numbers of observers who
will be allowed to participate, while arguing that it is
adhering "to the comma" of the Copenhagen Declaration. ODIHR
efforts to preemptively identify office space have not been
successful to date. The Ambassador will push for an
unconditional invitation and GOR adherence to the spirit of
its OSCE commitments in an October 25 meeting with CEC
Chairman Churov. End Summary.

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GOR in No Rush to Issue Invitation
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2. (SBU) In an October 19 meeting, CEC International Affairs
Director Andrey Davydov confirmed that the earliest ODIHR
will receive an invitation is early November, which he
attributed to the CEC's priority of certifying political
party candidate lists, which must be completed by October 28.
Davydov suggested that this work had to be completed before
the invitation could be sent, since the number of candidates
approved to participate in the election will have bearing on
the number of international observers. Davydov also said the
GOR invitation will stipulate a reduced number of monitors
from past years, although he would not reveal how many.


3. (SBU) Davydov expressed opposition to long-term monitors
and questioned why "in this day and age" monitors are needed.
He accused the OSCE of not treating Russia as a "normal
country," despite a record of "successful elections" in the
past. The eventual invitation, Davydov suggested, will
conform with Russian proposals for reforming OSCE-ODIHR
election monitoring in general, such as increasing the
proportion of CIS country representatives in observer
missions and restricting funding to the OSCE unified budget
that would disallow funding from Western countries.


4. (C) At the same time, MFA Director of the Department of
European Cooperation Sergey Ryabkov stressed that Russia
would meet its Copenhagen commitments "to the comma." He
maintained that the declaration only requires an invitation
to ODIHR and representatives of participating states to
monitor elections and makes no mention of assessment teams or
long-term observers. Ryabkov said the Russian Ambassador to
the OSCE had asked ODIHR Ambassador Christian Strohal for
documentation as to why the OSCE feels it needs to send an
assessment mission to Russia. He mentioned that CEC Chairman
Vladimir Churov would be traveling to Poland October 20 and
would meet with Ambassador Strohal.


5. (U) In an article published in Kommersant October 23,
Davydov reiterated that the election monitor issue will wait
until candidate lists are registered and argued that there
were no specific rules stipulating the timing of the
invitation. Davydov's comments generated some opposition
political comment. Independent Duma Deputy Vladimir Ryzhkov
was quoted as saying international observers would be
invited, but only at the last minute and, therefore, only in
the final stages of the election. He noted that, in his
opinion, the Kremlin needed international observers. Boris
Hadezhdin, of opposition party SPS, claimed the delay was on
purpose. They are trying to "cut off observers like they have
cut off opposition parties," while the Communist Party's Ivan
Melnikov attributed the delay to bureaucracy.

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Europeans Hear Same Message
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6. (C) EU Ambassadors, who met with CEC Chairman Churov
October 16, heard a similar message. As recounted by one
participating embassy, the Ambassadors were asked why there
was a need for a large scale observer mission when "Russia
has graduated from democracy school?" The Ambassadors, too,
were told that the issue of the invitation would be dealt
with after the CEC certified the candidate lists. According

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to a statement posted on the CEC's web site, Russia valued
openness and transparency in the electoral process and aimed
to meet its obligations in inviting international election
observers. Reaction from European missions to the latest
developments has been universally pessimistic, while some
missions speculated that the observer mission will only be
permitted to monitor the elections on election day itself. A
British diplomat told us the issue of observers will be on
the agenda of the EU-Russia Summit taking place October 26-28
in Lisbon.

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Office Space
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7. (C) With time running short between now and the December 2
elections, ODIHR has sought to move forward in preparing for
an observer mission, by looking for office space in Moscow
and posting a recruitment notice on their web site. Their
efforts to find office space to accommodate staff and 50
computers have been unsuccessful, so far. They have asked for
U.S. and EU embassy advice in securing space. (Note: Absent
GOR support, which ODIHR has not sought, it could be
difficult to obtain the commercial space. At a minimum, it
will be a costly endeavor. We are seeking to put ODIHR in
contact with U.S.-financed NGOs who may be able to provide
guidance on obtaining suitable property.)

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Comment
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8. (C) The consistency with which Russian officials are
conveying their message about international election
observers is a sign of GOR confidence in its strategy. The
GOR appears satisfied with their compliance with the letter
of the Copenhagen Declaration, although the limited observer
mission they are likely to allow will fall far short of the
spirit of the OSCE commitment. The Ambassador will continue
to push for a GOR invitation to ODIHR without conditions in
his October 25 meeting with CEC Chairman Churov.
Burns