Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MOSCOW3892
2007-08-08 14:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

GEORGIA MISSILE INCIDENT: MOSCOW CONTINUES TO DENY

Tags:  PREL MOPS PGOV RS GG 
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OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHMO #3892 2201455
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 081455Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2785
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 003892 

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2017
TAGS: PREL MOPS PGOV RS GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA MISSILE INCIDENT: MOSCOW CONTINUES TO DENY
INVOLVEMENT

REF: TBILISI 1958

Classified By: CDA Daniel A. Russell. Reasons 1.4 (B/D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 003892

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2017
TAGS: PREL MOPS PGOV RS GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA MISSILE INCIDENT: MOSCOW CONTINUES TO DENY
INVOLVEMENT

REF: TBILISI 1958

Classified By: CDA Daniel A. Russell. Reasons 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: Russia's Special Negotiator for South
Ossetia, Ambassador Yuriy Popov, reiterated to Charge August
8 that Russia played "no part" in the August 6 bombing
incident in Georgia. Popov emphasized that Russia did not
intend to let the incident jeopardize what he characterized
as the improving trend in Russian-Georgian relations. Popov
expressed hope for progress at the next Joint Control
Commission (JCC) meeting expected to take place in Tbilisi in
late September. Our contacts in Moscow reacted to the
missile incident with puzzlement; most believe Russia has no
reason to provoke a derailment of the peace process in the
South Ossetia dispute. An MFA statement August 8 accused
opponents of the JCC process of being behind the incident.
End Summary.


2. (C) Charge spoke with Ambassador Yuriy Popov, the GOR's
Special Envoy to the Joint Control Commission (JCC),August 8
regarding the August 6 bombing incident in Georgia. Charge
drew from points in Department's press statement condemning
the attack and urging cooperation in the investigation.
Popov insisted that Russia had played "no part" in the
incident. Popov maintained that the planes had flown
westward and "intruded" into the zone of the conflict from
the east, dropped a bomb, made a U turn and returned back to
where they started. Thus, he claimed, the planes could have
originated only in Georgia. Popov planned to arrive at
Tskhinvali on August 8. He said that earlier August 8 he and

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the Georgian JCC co-chair had reached agreement in principle
that the next JCC meeting would take place in Tbilisi
sometime in the second half of September. When asked whether
Kokoity would attend, Popov said that he personally planned
to urge him to do in a meeting later the same day. Popov
stated that Russia did not intend to let the incident
jeopardize what he characterized as an improving trend in
Russian-Georgian relations. He appreciated US support in
keeping Georgia engaged in dialogue.


3. (U) Earlier August 8, the Russian Air Force reiterated
its claim that "Russian planes did not fly any mission in
this area on Monday, nor did they cross into sovereign
Georgia." The Air Force dismissed the Georgian claim that
the Russian identification mark on the unexploded missile be
a reliable proof, noting that Russian-made weapons are
ubiquitous in the CIS region, including in Georgia.


4. (U) An August 8 MFA statement attributed the incident to
opponents of "normalization" in South Ossetia. The statement
"certain circles" of "new provocations to prove that earlier
negotiations and peace-keeping mechanisms involving Russia
are not effective." The statement alleged that such
provocations were evident "every time there are indications
of possible agreements within the JCC."


5. (C) Pro-Kremlin analyst Sergey Markov, Director of the
Political Research Institute, predictably echoed the GOR
announcement and accused Georgia of provocation. However,
most Russian experts expressed bewilderment at the missile
incident. Most saw no good reason why the GOR would seek to
orchestrate such an act. Alexey Bogaturov, Dean of the
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO),
saw no advantage to Russia in provoking a conflict with
Georgia. He surmised that either a technical mistake by the
Russian military or the intrigue of President Saakashvili's
inner circle was the culprit.


6. (C) Ivan Safranchuk, Director of the World Security
Institute, agreed that Russia had no reason to provoke a
border incident. Fedor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of the
journal Russia in Global Affairs, told us he regarded the
incident as "a mystery" and that he "did not know whom to
believe." Lukyanov said that Russia's interest lay in
stabilization of the Russian-Georgian bilateral relationship.
Lukyanov claimed that Moscow has grown tired of South
Ossetian "President" Eduard Kokoity and might be more
amenable to reaching a solution.

RUSSELL