Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MOSCOW3527
2007-07-19 07:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

LUGOVOY DISPUTE: RUSSIAN RESTRAINT FOR NOW

Tags:  PREL KCRM KNUC UK RS 
pdf how-to read a cable
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2188
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 003527 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2017
TAGS: PREL KCRM KNUC UK RS
SUBJECT: LUGOVOY DISPUTE: RUSSIAN RESTRAINT FOR NOW

REF: LONDON 2758

Classified By: DCM Daniel A. Russell. Reasons 1,4 (B/D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 003527

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2017
TAGS: PREL KCRM KNUC UK RS
SUBJECT: LUGOVOY DISPUTE: RUSSIAN RESTRAINT FOR NOW

REF: LONDON 2758

Classified By: DCM Daniel A. Russell. Reasons 1,4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: The British decision to expel four Russian
diplomats and take other diplomatic measures in response to
Moscow's refusal to extradite Lugovoy in the Litvinenko
murder case has elicited sharp commentary by Russian
legislators and pundits. The official Russian reaction, by
contrast, has been more measured. Evidence of Russian
restraint is seen in DFM Grushko's explicit assurances that
business, tourism, scientific and cultural ties will be
safeguarded. While a Russian overreaction cannot be ruled
out, it appears most likely that the GOR is going to respond
proportionately and is tending towards damage control. With
the official GOR reaction expected by week's end, the August
summer exodus should provide a natural break in the
diplomatic dispute. End summary.

--------------
MFA Promises "Adequate and Targeted" Response
--------------


2. (SBU) In a July 17 statement, MFA Deputy Foreign Minister
Grushko listed three principal grievances in response to
HMG's July 16 decision to expel four Russian diplomats, halt
all cooperation with the FSB, and be more restrictive in its
visa issuances to Russian officials:

--Britain should not penalize Russia for abiding by its
Constitution, which forbids the extradition of Russian
citizens. Grushko defended the level of law enforcement
cooperation that existed on the Litvinenko affair and argued
that UK expectations that Russia would amend its constitution
went against common sense;

--Britain, which had refused to extradite 21 Russian citizens
to Russia in the past, including controversial tycoon Boris
Berezovskiy and Chechen rebel envoy Akhmed Zakayev, had no
right to request Lugovoy's extradition;

--Britain was taking the path of confrontation, rather than
of cooperation, while politicizing the case. Grushko called
upon the EU to resist the "latest effort" to turn EU-Russian
relations into a "universal instrument for achieving
one-sided political goals," which ran counter to the
principle of partnership.


3. (SBU) However, the fact that Grushko promised an
"adequate and targeted response," without announcing

immediate retaliatory measures, suggests that the GOR is
tending towards restraint (e.g., a tit-for-tat expulsion of
four UK diplomats),rather than a diplomatic overreaction
(e.g., expulsion of the UK Ambassador). Grushko explicitly
protected business, cultural, scientific and tourism ties,
underscoring that Russia would factor into account the
interests of common citizens. He contrasted this with the UK
decision to halt all work with the FSB, which would have the
practical effect of ending UK-Russian counterterrorism
cooperation, potentially affecting the interests of millions
of UK and Russian citizens.

--------------
A Harder Public Line, but No Drum Beat
--------------


4. (SBU) The British decision prompted a shriller public
reaction among Russian legislators and pundits. Yuriy
Sharandin of the Federation Council's Constitutional
Committee was one of many who argued that the expulsion order
was part of a broader European effort to foment "Russophobia"
and paint a negative image of Russia. Duma International
Relations Committee Chairman Konstantin Kosachev, typically a
moderate voice, called the British demand for extradition "a
form of imperialism." Kosachev added that "you can act this
way toward a banana republic but Russia is not a banana
republic." Several commentators attributed the conflict to
the lack of common shared culture between the two countries.
Frustration with HMG's lack of responsiveness to Russian
requests for the extradition of Berezovskiy and Zakayev, and
support for Grushko's charges of double-standards, were
common themes in television and news reports. Commentators
sympathizing with the UK position were in the minority,
although one internet publication argued that "the man
accused of killing a British citizen and infecting much of
London is free and treated almost like a hero in Russia."


5. (SBU) What has been lacking, however, is an orchestrated
campaign to ratchet up tensions against the UK. In
particular, one dog that has not barked is the Kremlin-backed
youth group, Nashi, whose activists maliciously stalked UK

MOSCOW 00003527 002 OF 002


Ambassador Brenton for months, in retaliation for his
speaking role at the July 2006 "Other Russia" opposition
conference. (Nashi's activists -- also famed for their May
siege of the Estonian Embassy -- may have been caught
flat-footed by the timing of the UK announcement, which
coincided with the organization's annual youth camps for
activists, held in Tver -- around three hours drive from
Moscow.)

--------------
Comment
--------------


6. (C) Grushko's measured statement that Russia would
respond in a targeted fashion and the lack of any
orchestrated drumbeat in the press whipping up sentiment
against the UK suggest that Russia will respond in kind to
the British move and act in a reciprocal and limited fashion.
While the dispute will have an inevitable chilling effect on
bilateral ties, the impending August summer exodus should
provide a natural break and could allow tensions to lower
perhaps by the fall.
BURNS