ESTONIA: DEMONSTRATORS QUIT ESTONIAN EMBASSY AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002065

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017
TAGS: PREL ETRD ENRG EN RS
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: DEMONSTRATORS QUIT ESTONIAN EMBASSY AS
AMBASSADOR RETURNS TO TALLINN

REF: A. MOSCOW 01998

B. MOSCOW 02017

C. TALLINN 00297

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons: 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: Pro-Kremlin youth groups gave up their
disruptive protest outside the Estonian Embassy early May 4
as the Estonian Ambassador to Russia returned to Tallinn.
However, pro-Kremlin youth group Nashi (Ours) began a new
demonstration against the European Commission on the
afternoon of May 4. Additionally, about 20 WWII veterans
held a quiet, 30-minute demonstration May 4 outside the
Estonian Embassy. Embassy personnel were preparing to return
to normal work. Oil products shipments continue to flow to
Estonia, despite a Russian Railways (RZD) statement May 2
that railroad repairs would stop shipments. On the evening
of May 3, the Ambassador stressed to First DFM Denisov the
importance of winding down this episode. He also stressed to
Denisov that any politically-motivated disruption of energy
supplies to Estonia would be extremely counter-productive and
that Russia should not be surprised by what would certainly
be a sharp, public U.S. -- and European -- reaction.
Ambassador repeated these points to DFM Kislyak on the
afternoon of May 4. We are urging our EU colleagues to
stress the same message to the Russians with the Russian-EU
Summit in Samara looming ahead on May 17-18. End Summary.

All Quiet at the Embassy's Front
--------------


2. (C) Demonstrators gave up their noisy vigil outside the
Estonian Embassy early May 4 after declaring "victory" with
the departure of Estonian Ambassador Kaljurand for a brief
"vacation" in Tallinn. Kaljurand departed Moscow on the
evening of May 3, with a dozen or so demonstrators and the
leader of the pro-Kremlin youth group Nashi, Vasily
Yakemenko, trailing her to Sheremetyevo airport. At the
airport, Yakemenko declared, "It is a victory for Nashi. We
will lift the blockade as the (Embassy) is now just an
ordinary empty building in Moscow," according to press
reports. The demonstrators' departure was part of a quiet
face-saving deal worked out between the Estonians and the EU
Presidency -- Germany -- and the GOR. As part of the deal,
Kaljurand agreed to leave Moscow for at least a few days and
the GOR promised to end the protest (ref B).


3. (C) PolOff visited the Estonian Embassy on the morning of
May 4. All demonstrators had cleared out, taking their tents
and portable toilets with them. Posters and leaflets
denouncing "Fascist Estonia" littered the ground. Some
militia were disassembling metal barriers they had erected
earlier. A new Estonian flag had replaced the one torn down.
The new flag was reinforced at the top of the flag pole with
duct tape.


4. (C) Inside the Embassy, employees were beaming. "There
has been a siege atmosphere in here for a week," said Press
Attache Franek Persidski. He added that protesters had
thrown rocks at the Embassy overnight, breaking several
windows. "We all hope things will get back to normal soon."
Persidski said the Embassy's consular section would probably
reopen on Monday, May 7. Despite the end of the youth group
demonstrations, about 20 WWII veterans held a quiet,
30-minute demonstration May 4 outside the Estonian Embassy.
Also on May 4, Nashi began a new demonstration against the
European Commission. By 4 p.m., EC Press Spokesperson
Aleksandra Nabokina said dozens of Nashi demonstrators had
set up a stage and loudspeakers next to the EC office, and a
large group of Nashi members and high-schoolers had departed
Red Square to march to the EC office, apparently in protest
at the EU's intervention in the dispute, Nabokina said.

Oil Products Still Flowing for Now
--------------


5. (C) On the evening of May 3, the Ambassador stressed to
First DFM Denisov the importance of winding down this
episode. He also stressed to Denisov that any
politically-motivated disruption of energy supplies to
Estonia would be extremely counter-productive and that Russia
should not be surprised by what would certainly be a sharp,
public U.S. -- and European -- reaction. Ambassador repeated
these points to DFM Kislyak on the afternoon of May 4. We
are urging our EU colleagues to stress the same message to
the Russians with the Russian-EU Summit in Samara looming
ahead on May 17-18. Ambassador repeated these points to DFM
Kislyak on the afternoon of May 4.


6. (C) On May 2, Russian Railways announced that railroad
repairs would stop oil product shipments to Estonia. As of

MOSCOW 00002065 002 OF 002


May 4, oil product shipments and coal from Russia to Estonia
for both re-export and domestic consumption are still being
delivered. As well, Russian natural gas and crude oil flows
are unaffected. The vast majority of the oil product exports
from Russia are re-exported to Western European markets.
Estonia is largely dependent on Russia for its domestic
natural gas, coal, and oil needs. However, these energy
sources make up less than 50 percent of Estonia's energy mix
-- relatively low by EU standards.


7. (C) Most big shippers have been able to re-route oil
products originally destined for re-export through Estonia to
other ports. These companies (GazpromNeft and TNK-BP,
principally) are fulfilling their contractual obligations to
customers in Europe by managing to find another way to get
their product out of Russia. A contact at TNK-BP confirms
that RZD has capped its oil product shipments through Estonia
and that other companies are experiencing the same
difficulties. He said the only company to avoid this
restriction was Surgutneftegaz which exports products from
its Kirishi refinery. In a conflicting report, a trader with
Shell told us that they have been able to get their oil
product shipments on the May schedule.


8. (C) While oil products are still flowing, it is uncertain
whether RZD has scheduled full shipments for May. According
to one reliable contact, RZD has not put together the May
schedule. Because shipments from refinery to port can take
up to 20 days, he speculated that the product that is moving
from Russia to Estonia now may be deliveries left over from
April's approved shipments.
BURNS