OTHER SHOE DROPS: VESHNYAKOV OUT OF CEC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001120

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM RS
SUBJECT: OTHER SHOE DROPS: VESHNYAKOV OUT OF CEC

REF: A. (A) 06 MOSCOW 12498


B. (B) MOSCOW 870

Classified By: DCM Daniel A. Russell for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Many commentators attribute President
Putin's failure to re-appoint Central Election Commission
(CEC) Chairman Aleksandr Veshnyakov to his public criticism
of election law changes that were initiated by the
Kremlin-backed party United Russia. Although many will miss
Veshnyakov's even-handed administration of the CEC, two
bitter liberal politicians described him as a pawn who had
served Putin's purposes, then been ejected. Putin CEC
appointee Igor Fedorov, who hails from the Presidential
Administration, St. Petersburg, and possibly the KGB, seems
likely to replace Veshnyakov as the next CEC chairman. Under
Veshnyakov, the CEC presided over a transition that saw much
movement towards the managed, two-party system that the
Kremlin has sought in advance of the upcoming parliamentary
and presidential elections. Although Veshnyakov's departure
was not pretty, another job for him in the Putin
Administration cannot be ruled out. End summary.

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Surprise Omission
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2. (C) The March 13 publication of Putin's decree naming his
five allotted representatives to the fifteen-member Central
Election Commission (CEC) excluded incumbent Chairman
Aleksandr Veshnyakov, who had hoped to serve a third
four-year term as CEC Chairman. Many commentators attribute
Veshnyakov's exclusion to his public criticism of United
Russia-initiated amendments to election laws which dispensed
with the "against all" option, removed the requirement for a
minimum voter turnout, and made it easy to remove candidates
from the ballot on technicalities (ref a). In a February 28
meeting with the Ambassador (ref b),Veshnyakov had been
cautiously optimistic that he would retain his position. His
exclusion came as a shock. On March 13, CEC International
Relations staffer Olga Balashova told us that the news had
been a great surprise to her and other CEC staffers.


3. (C) LDPR's Aleksey Mitrofanov told us that Veshnyakov had
been ousted because he had created a "ministry of electoral
affairs," rather than a commission for counting votes.
Center for Political Technologies analyst Aleksey Makarkin
agreed, pointing out that Veshnyakov had tried to work as a
partner of the Kremlin, instead of as its client.


4. (U) Those on the more liberal (and bitter) end of the
spectrum were less generous about Veshnyakov's legacy.
Yabloko Chairman Grigoriy Yavlinskiy accused Veshnyakov of
executing every order Putin gave him. Independent Duma
Deputy Vladimir Ryzhkov, noting that that Veshnyakov's term
encompassed Putin's period of rule, held the CEC Chairman
responsible for "destroying democracy" in Russia.

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The New CEC
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5. (SBU) Maya Grishina, a Presidential Administration CEC
representative, told us March 13 that the new CEC would not
convene until after March 26. It will comprise six new
members (the 2003 turnover saw seven new members),but the
tenor of its work will hinge on the new chairperson. Igor
Fedorov, one of President Putin's appointees, is favored to
succeed Veshnyakov. He is a former advisor to the
Presidential Administration on internal affairs, a St.
Petersburg native, and is rumored to have worked for the KGB.
Balashova hoped that there would not be great structural
changes in the new CEC, but regretted the loss of respected
professionals such as Olga Zastrozhnaya and Vladimir Lysenko.

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Comment
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6. (C) Veshnyakov's success in providing the Kremlin with
the "dress rehearsal" election that it wanted, and thereby
smoothing the way for managed, multi-party Duma and
presidential elections, raises the possibility that the
Kremlin will find a place for his professionalism and talents
elsewhere in the Putin Administration. On the other hand,
the belief that Veshnyakov's downfall was traceable to his
increasing outspokenness has sparked rumors here that he may
opt for a future in politics; perhaps with For A Just Russia.



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7. (C) With little time left before the Duma and
presidential elections, Veshnyakov's successor will have
scant opportunity to make major changes in the workings of
the CEC. The new chairperson, however, will set the tone for
the December 2007 Duma and the March 2008 presidential
elections through the CEC's interpretation of the
controversial amendments to the electoral law. While
Veshnyakov spoke out forcefully against technical exclusions
of parties and candidates, his success in preventing the
practice was uneven, and his acquiescence to Yabloko's
removal in St. Petersburg was proof of the limits of his
influence.
BURNS