Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MOSCOW1067
2007-03-13 15:47:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:
REGIONAL ELECTIONS: COMMUNISTS BENEFIT FROM
how-toVZCZCXRO3983 OO RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHMO #1067/01 0721547 ZNR UUUUU ZZH O 131547Z MAR 07 FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8190 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUEHLN/AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 3862 RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 1982 RUEHYG/AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG 2283
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 001067
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR RS
SUBJECT: REGIONAL ELECTIONS: COMMUNISTS BENEFIT FROM
UNITED RUSSIA - JUST RUSSIA STAND-OFF
REF: A. MOSCOW 1023
B. ST. PETERSBURG 57
MOSCOW 00001067 001.2 OF 003
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSCOW 001067
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR RS
SUBJECT: REGIONAL ELECTIONS: COMMUNISTS BENEFIT FROM
UNITED RUSSIA - JUST RUSSIA STAND-OFF
REF: A. MOSCOW 1023
B. ST. PETERSBURG 57
MOSCOW 00001067 001.2 OF 003
1. (SBU) Summary: Although final results are not yet in, the
big news of the elections which took place in fourteen
regions March 11 appears to be the strong showing by the
Communist Party, which overcame an attempt to steal its
thunder by the Kremlin-fostered For A Just Russia party to
win more votes in most regions than it had in 2003. While
Vladimir Zhirinovskiy's LDPR tallies were less than its
results in 2003, March 11 demonstrated that the one-man LDPR
still has legs. Union of Right Forces (SPS) Chairman Nikita
Belykh pegged his party's electoral successes to a campaign
that stressed the "social aspects." His critics disagreed,
and traced strong showings by SPS in as many as five regions
to a Kremlin boost, financing by UES Chairman Anatoliy
Chubais, and the party's new-found populism. End summary.
--------------
Communist Party Bounces
--------------
2. (SBU) Although final results are not in as of March 13,
the outlines of the March 11 elections in fourteen regions
(ref a) are becoming clearer. The Communist Party of the
Russian Federation (KPRF) seems to have strengthened its
position in a number of regions. Observers and the KPRF
itself traced the party's improved positions in ten of the
fourteen contests (St. Petersburg, Tomsk, Stavropol, Pskov,
Omsk, Murmansk, Moscow, Leningrad, Volograd, Komi) to a
combination of a protest vote by an electorate tired of
pre-packaged parties, the KPRF's ability to defend its
interests in the regions, and an election that had
Kremlin-fostered parties United Russia and For A Just Russia
too preoccupied with one another to focus on their
competitors.
3. (SBU) Fund for Effective Politics Chairman Gleb Pavlovskiy
termed the KPRF's performance one of the surprises of the
campaign, and he saw it as evidence that For A Just Russia
had failed in its mission to subtract votes from the left.
Pavlovskiy thought that For A Just Russia had gotten on the
scoreboard at the expense of United Russia. (In fact, if the
2003 Duma elections are used as a baseline, United Russia
improved its take in ten of the fourteen regions this time
around.) Center for Political Technologies Director Aleksey
Makarkin March 13 played down the significance of the KPRF
gains, while conceding their status as the only "real"
political party in Russia. Makarkin stressed that regional
parliamentary elections, with generally lower voter turnouts,
play to the KPRF's strength, its loyal and disciplined
voters.
4. (SBU) A major surprise for observers was the KPRF's tally
in St. Petersburg, where it garnered over sixteen percent on
March 11, as opposed to 7.9 percent in 2003. The party's
improved results may indeed indicate that St. Petersburg is
becoming more like the rest of Russia or, as Yabloko's
Political Section Chief Galina Mikheeva suggested in a March
13 conversation with Embassy, KPRF St. Petersburg may have
benefited from votes cast by those tired of the GOR's efforts
to manage their democracy. In the wake of the KPRF's success,
Pavlovskiy excluded the possibility of a December Duma race
alliance with For A Just Russia as "not in the interests" of
the surging Communists. Makarkin suggested that the KPRF and
For A Just Russia, not SPS, had benefited from the Yabloko
protest vote because of the bitter rivalry between the two
"liberal" parties in St. Petersburg.
--------------
Serious Violations in Dagestan Alleged
--------------
5. (SBU) In a March 13 press conference, Chairman Gennadiy
Zyuganov alleged that violations in Dagestan had been so
serious that he would ask the Duma March 14 to investigate
and, possibly, have elections there invalidated.
--------------
LDPR Sags Slightly
--------------
6. (SBU) Vladimir Zhirinovskiy's LDPR crossed the threshold
to representation in thirteen of fourteen elections, but saw
its numbers drop in eleven regions. Still, observers predict
that it, along with United Russia, For A Just Russia, and
KPRF remained strong enough cross the threshold to Duma
MOSCOW 00001067 002.2 OF 003
representation in December. In a March 12 conversation, LDPR
Duma Deputy Aleksey Mitrofanov termed the results "not bad."
He was unhappy only with Moscow region results, where initial
announcements that LDPR had crossed the seven percent
threshold were followed by a near-final count that put the
party under seven percent. The party, Mitrofanov said, is
investigating and may protest the results.
--------------
SPS Claims Campaign
Change Behind Better Results
--------------
7. (SBU) Also acquitting itself well on March 11 was the
Union of Right Forces (SPS). At a March 13 press conference,
SPS Chairman Nikita Belykh traced his party's strong showing
to its focus on the "social aspect" in its campaign. (SPS
critics say the "social aspect" is really "populism" and
argue that the party has strayed from its earlier allegiance
to free-market principles.) Belykh justified at length his
party's new program, describing it as a logical extension of
its free-market ethos. "The welfare of pensioners is part of
the capitalist value system," Belykh summed up.
8. (SBU) Belykh insisted that SPS had won at least seven
percent of the vote in every region where it was registered;
a claim that few election observers find credible. He
claimed there was concrete evidence that the vote had been
manipulated in Omsk, Orel, and the Moscow regions. SPS would
contest the results of those contests in court, he said.
Poor results in St. Petersburg were the fault of SPS, Belykh
said. The party had been too preoccupied with Yabloko's
election saga, and had missed a golden opportunity.
9. (SBU) The verdict is out on whether SPS can become the
fifth party to cross the threshold into the Duma in December.
Makarkin noted that a serious launch of "Civilian Power,"
the re-branded, Kremlin-linked business group with liberal
pretensions, could reduce the SPS vote bank by a percentage
point or so; just enough to spoil its chances.
--------------
Yabloko - SPS Alliance Impossible
--------------
10. (SBU) Yabloko's Mikheeva believed that SPS's cordial
relations with the Kremlin had paved its way to the March 11
results. She bitterly alleged that SPS campaign manager Anton
Bakov's strategy consisted of "buying votes." Yabloko's near
failure to get on the election scoreboard March 11 did not
mean it would contemplate an alliance with SPS, she said.
11. (SBU) Belykh at his press conference agreed that an SPS -
Yabloko alliance was impossible. He described the parties'
ideologies as too different to allow for cooperation. In a
March 12 conversation, IMEMO Director Aleksey Arbatov also
dismissed talk of a tactical merger. SPS sponsor Anatoliy
Chubais still conjures up memories of 1990s "oligarch
capitalism" for too many voters, he said. Arbatov described
SPS as the "authorized voice" of the liberals, which has
allowed it easy access to Chubais-channeled funding and made
a merger with Yabloko unnecessary. Makarkin noted that SPS's
aggressive tactics towards Yabloko, including buying off some
of its Moscow-region party leaders, had further poisoned
relations.
--------------
For A Just Russia Gets on the Map
--------------
12. (SBU) Although For A Just Russia's solid performance was
eclipsed in media reporting by the KPRF's
stronger-then-expected showing, the elections in the end put
Sergey Mironov's party solidly on the political map. Current
results show it finishing second in four of the fourteen
regions and above seven percent in every election except
Omsk. Makarkin argued that prospects were good for A Just
Russia to further consolidate its gains now that wary
regional leaders had proof that the Kremlin was prepared to
tolerate two ruling parties in regions were For A Just Russia
had fared well.
--------------
Comment
--------------
13. (SBU) Although the results are not final, and plans by
MOSCOW 00001067 003.2 OF 003
some to challenge the results in Dagestan, Moscow region, and
elsewhere may somewhat change their complexion, observers
provisionally agree that the showings of United Russia, For A
Just Russia, KPRF, and LDPR on March 11 have paved their way
to Duma representation in December. SPS, they believe, will
have to further strengthen its hold on the electorate in the
eight months remaining until the election if it is to succeed
as a faction. The results of single-mandate races were not
discussed here. There are rumors throughout the regions that
many "independent" deputies elected March 11 are either
United Russia or For A Just Russia proxies, or businessmen
inclined to cooperate with them.
BURNS
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR RS
SUBJECT: REGIONAL ELECTIONS: COMMUNISTS BENEFIT FROM
UNITED RUSSIA - JUST RUSSIA STAND-OFF
REF: A. MOSCOW 1023
B. ST. PETERSBURG 57
MOSCOW 00001067 001.2 OF 003
1. (SBU) Summary: Although final results are not yet in, the
big news of the elections which took place in fourteen
regions March 11 appears to be the strong showing by the
Communist Party, which overcame an attempt to steal its
thunder by the Kremlin-fostered For A Just Russia party to
win more votes in most regions than it had in 2003. While
Vladimir Zhirinovskiy's LDPR tallies were less than its
results in 2003, March 11 demonstrated that the one-man LDPR
still has legs. Union of Right Forces (SPS) Chairman Nikita
Belykh pegged his party's electoral successes to a campaign
that stressed the "social aspects." His critics disagreed,
and traced strong showings by SPS in as many as five regions
to a Kremlin boost, financing by UES Chairman Anatoliy
Chubais, and the party's new-found populism. End summary.
--------------
Communist Party Bounces
--------------
2. (SBU) Although final results are not in as of March 13,
the outlines of the March 11 elections in fourteen regions
(ref a) are becoming clearer. The Communist Party of the
Russian Federation (KPRF) seems to have strengthened its
position in a number of regions. Observers and the KPRF
itself traced the party's improved positions in ten of the
fourteen contests (St. Petersburg, Tomsk, Stavropol, Pskov,
Omsk, Murmansk, Moscow, Leningrad, Volograd, Komi) to a
combination of a protest vote by an electorate tired of
pre-packaged parties, the KPRF's ability to defend its
interests in the regions, and an election that had
Kremlin-fostered parties United Russia and For A Just Russia
too preoccupied with one another to focus on their
competitors.
3. (SBU) Fund for Effective Politics Chairman Gleb Pavlovskiy
termed the KPRF's performance one of the surprises of the
campaign, and he saw it as evidence that For A Just Russia
had failed in its mission to subtract votes from the left.
Pavlovskiy thought that For A Just Russia had gotten on the
scoreboard at the expense of United Russia. (In fact, if the
2003 Duma elections are used as a baseline, United Russia
improved its take in ten of the fourteen regions this time
around.) Center for Political Technologies Director Aleksey
Makarkin March 13 played down the significance of the KPRF
gains, while conceding their status as the only "real"
political party in Russia. Makarkin stressed that regional
parliamentary elections, with generally lower voter turnouts,
play to the KPRF's strength, its loyal and disciplined
voters.
4. (SBU) A major surprise for observers was the KPRF's tally
in St. Petersburg, where it garnered over sixteen percent on
March 11, as opposed to 7.9 percent in 2003. The party's
improved results may indeed indicate that St. Petersburg is
becoming more like the rest of Russia or, as Yabloko's
Political Section Chief Galina Mikheeva suggested in a March
13 conversation with Embassy, KPRF St. Petersburg may have
benefited from votes cast by those tired of the GOR's efforts
to manage their democracy. In the wake of the KPRF's success,
Pavlovskiy excluded the possibility of a December Duma race
alliance with For A Just Russia as "not in the interests" of
the surging Communists. Makarkin suggested that the KPRF and
For A Just Russia, not SPS, had benefited from the Yabloko
protest vote because of the bitter rivalry between the two
"liberal" parties in St. Petersburg.
--------------
Serious Violations in Dagestan Alleged
--------------
5. (SBU) In a March 13 press conference, Chairman Gennadiy
Zyuganov alleged that violations in Dagestan had been so
serious that he would ask the Duma March 14 to investigate
and, possibly, have elections there invalidated.
--------------
LDPR Sags Slightly
--------------
6. (SBU) Vladimir Zhirinovskiy's LDPR crossed the threshold
to representation in thirteen of fourteen elections, but saw
its numbers drop in eleven regions. Still, observers predict
that it, along with United Russia, For A Just Russia, and
KPRF remained strong enough cross the threshold to Duma
MOSCOW 00001067 002.2 OF 003
representation in December. In a March 12 conversation, LDPR
Duma Deputy Aleksey Mitrofanov termed the results "not bad."
He was unhappy only with Moscow region results, where initial
announcements that LDPR had crossed the seven percent
threshold were followed by a near-final count that put the
party under seven percent. The party, Mitrofanov said, is
investigating and may protest the results.
--------------
SPS Claims Campaign
Change Behind Better Results
--------------
7. (SBU) Also acquitting itself well on March 11 was the
Union of Right Forces (SPS). At a March 13 press conference,
SPS Chairman Nikita Belykh traced his party's strong showing
to its focus on the "social aspect" in its campaign. (SPS
critics say the "social aspect" is really "populism" and
argue that the party has strayed from its earlier allegiance
to free-market principles.) Belykh justified at length his
party's new program, describing it as a logical extension of
its free-market ethos. "The welfare of pensioners is part of
the capitalist value system," Belykh summed up.
8. (SBU) Belykh insisted that SPS had won at least seven
percent of the vote in every region where it was registered;
a claim that few election observers find credible. He
claimed there was concrete evidence that the vote had been
manipulated in Omsk, Orel, and the Moscow regions. SPS would
contest the results of those contests in court, he said.
Poor results in St. Petersburg were the fault of SPS, Belykh
said. The party had been too preoccupied with Yabloko's
election saga, and had missed a golden opportunity.
9. (SBU) The verdict is out on whether SPS can become the
fifth party to cross the threshold into the Duma in December.
Makarkin noted that a serious launch of "Civilian Power,"
the re-branded, Kremlin-linked business group with liberal
pretensions, could reduce the SPS vote bank by a percentage
point or so; just enough to spoil its chances.
--------------
Yabloko - SPS Alliance Impossible
--------------
10. (SBU) Yabloko's Mikheeva believed that SPS's cordial
relations with the Kremlin had paved its way to the March 11
results. She bitterly alleged that SPS campaign manager Anton
Bakov's strategy consisted of "buying votes." Yabloko's near
failure to get on the election scoreboard March 11 did not
mean it would contemplate an alliance with SPS, she said.
11. (SBU) Belykh at his press conference agreed that an SPS -
Yabloko alliance was impossible. He described the parties'
ideologies as too different to allow for cooperation. In a
March 12 conversation, IMEMO Director Aleksey Arbatov also
dismissed talk of a tactical merger. SPS sponsor Anatoliy
Chubais still conjures up memories of 1990s "oligarch
capitalism" for too many voters, he said. Arbatov described
SPS as the "authorized voice" of the liberals, which has
allowed it easy access to Chubais-channeled funding and made
a merger with Yabloko unnecessary. Makarkin noted that SPS's
aggressive tactics towards Yabloko, including buying off some
of its Moscow-region party leaders, had further poisoned
relations.
--------------
For A Just Russia Gets on the Map
--------------
12. (SBU) Although For A Just Russia's solid performance was
eclipsed in media reporting by the KPRF's
stronger-then-expected showing, the elections in the end put
Sergey Mironov's party solidly on the political map. Current
results show it finishing second in four of the fourteen
regions and above seven percent in every election except
Omsk. Makarkin argued that prospects were good for A Just
Russia to further consolidate its gains now that wary
regional leaders had proof that the Kremlin was prepared to
tolerate two ruling parties in regions were For A Just Russia
had fared well.
--------------
Comment
--------------
13. (SBU) Although the results are not final, and plans by
MOSCOW 00001067 003.2 OF 003
some to challenge the results in Dagestan, Moscow region, and
elsewhere may somewhat change their complexion, observers
provisionally agree that the showings of United Russia, For A
Just Russia, KPRF, and LDPR on March 11 have paved their way
to Duma representation in December. SPS, they believe, will
have to further strengthen its hold on the electorate in the
eight months remaining until the election if it is to succeed
as a faction. The results of single-mandate races were not
discussed here. There are rumors throughout the regions that
many "independent" deputies elected March 11 are either
United Russia or For A Just Russia proxies, or businessmen
inclined to cooperate with them.
BURNS