Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07MONTEVIDEO1061
2007-12-27 15:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Montevideo
Cable title:  

FRENTE AMPLIO: UNABLE TO ELECT A LEADER, BUT

Tags:  PGOV PREL ETRD UY 
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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #1061/01 3611502
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 271502Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7848
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L MONTEVIDEO 001061 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/BSC
STATE PASS TO USTR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ETRD UY
SUBJECT: FRENTE AMPLIO: UNABLE TO ELECT A LEADER, BUT
UNITED AGAINST THE U.S.


Classified By: Charge d,Affaires a.i. Peter X. Harding for Reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L MONTEVIDEO 001061

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/BSC
STATE PASS TO USTR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ETRD UY
SUBJECT: FRENTE AMPLIO: UNABLE TO ELECT A LEADER, BUT
UNITED AGAINST THE U.S.


Classified By: Charge d,Affaires a.i. Peter X. Harding for Reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Summary: The Frente Amplio (FA) failed to elect a
new leader to head the coalition's political apparatus during
its semi-annual congress December 13-16. Coalition leaders
worked late into the night before and during the meetings,
seeking consensus as to who would lead the FA, an important
bellwether before the Frente later chooses who will be its
candidate for president in 2009. None was reached.
President Vazquez unsuccessfully proposed four potential
candidates. The end result was that current FA President
Jorge Brovetto will continue as caretaker in that post until
the next FA congress in April. While unable to choose a
leader, the FA did weigh in against an FTA with the U.S.,
upping the ante for Vazquez as he considers ways to open
Uruguay's economy. END SUMMARY.

THE FRENTE POSTPONES CHOOSING ITS NEXT LEADER
--------------


2. (SBU) The FA held its semi-annual congress December 13-16.
The task at hand was to select a new FA president --
something coalition leaders were unable to manage. Constanza
Moreira, a political analyst backed by the FA's largest
party, the Popular Participation Movement (MPP),could only
garner 41% support, well short of the 66% consensus required
by the coalition's statutes. The MPP, representing 30% of
delegates, combined with the Vertiente Artiguista Party and
others in support of Moreira. MPP leader and Minister of
Agriculture Jose Mujica lamented his candidate's impending
defeat during remarks to the congress, "you have massacred
this independent comrade." In remarks to the press later,
Mujica insisted that "life goes on," and accepted that
consensus had not been reached. He recalled that current FA
president Jorge Brovetto was elected by a small margin, and
added, "The old Frente Amplio members among us are accustomed
to such events." Moreira was the only candidate considered
by the full congress.


3. (SBU) The Communist Party (PCU) played a key role in

opposing Moreira and instead championed a change to the FA's
charter to create a secretariat with a rotating presidency
until consensus emerged. While the Frente did not seriously
consider this change, media reports touted the Communist
Party's success in stopping Moreira's candidacy while
boosting the far left's influence ahead of an eventual FA
leadership decision.

VAZQUEZ UNABLE TO INFLUENCE THE FRENTE
--------------


4. (SBU) Sources close to President Vazquez, who did not
support the MPP's Moreira, seemed content that the decision
was postponed. However, during the course of the congress,
Vazquez floated four potential candidates to lead the FA,
none of whom were finally considered by the congress. They
included: Fabricio Siniscalchi, Brovetto's right hand man in
the FA, Hector Lescano, the Minister of Tourism, Senator
Alberto Curiel, and Eduardo Fernandez, the Secretary General
of Vazquez' Socialist Party. The President's inability to
bring any of his preferred candidates before the congress for
a vote was considered proof by some observers that the
president is out of step with the FA, or vice versa. NOTE:
The question remains whether Vazquez will succeed in bringing
the FA around to his positions as he has so many times in the
past. END NOTE.

FRENTE UNITED AGAINST FREE TRADE
--------------


5. (SBU) While the question of leadership vexed the Frente,
its governing body was united in rejecting the prospect of a
Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. The FA congress also
urged the GOU to carefully consider the details of the Trade
and Investment Framework (TIFA) currently being negotiated.
The congress called for special attention to the TIFA
chapters on intellectual property rights, government
purchases, and public services, warning that "if these
(chapters) were not compatible with national interests they
would be not be accepted by the political establishment."

COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) COMMENT: The FA congress' preemptive rejection of an
FTA with the U.S. ups the ante for Vazquez, should he seek to
actively pursue such an agreement. However, Vazquez still
enjoys higher approval ratings than his party and has shown
in the past his ability to bring the FA on board to achieve
his objectives. General public opinion is also in favor of
increased trade ties.


7. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: The Frente Amplio will likely face
continued difficulty in selecting its coalition president, a
challenge that we expect will be magnified even further as it
sets about choosing a candidate for the 2009 presidential
elections. The lack of an obvious political heir to
President Vazquez, the backdrop of recent allegations of
corruption within the FA, and the far left's dissatisfaction
with a government it views as too centrist, will combine to
make an interesting political cocktail in the months to come.
The FA's public image is languishing. A December 10 poll by
Factum showed the FA with its lowest approval rating since
early 2002 - 44%(compared to 57% in March 2007) - while
Vazquez' approval ratings rose back to 52%. However, despite
the FA's internal strife, opposition parties are even less
cohesive and the Frente remains the current odds-on favorite
to maintain the presidency in 2009. Finally, there are
strong rumors that Vazquez will shuffle his cabinet next
February -- ministers who might be replaced are Azucena
Berutti (defense),Mariano Arana (housing, and Reinaldo
Gargani (foreign affairs). If true, the new ministers should
reveal clues on the future direction of the GOU and the
extent to which the FA influences it.
Harding