TWO MONTH TRUCE HAS DRASTICALLY REDUCED NORTHERN BORDER DRUG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MONTERREY 000800

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/23/2017
TAGS: SNAR ASEC KCRM ECON ETRD PGOV MX
SUBJECT: TWO MONTH TRUCE HAS DRASTICALLY REDUCED NORTHERN BORDER DRUG
VIOLENCE, BUT NEW KILLINGS ENDANGER THE TRUCE

REF: A. A) MONTERREY 567


B. B) MONTERREY 666

C. C) MONTERREY 704

CLASSIFIED BY: Bruce Williamson, Consul General.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY. There has been a dramatic reduction in the
level of drug violence in Nuevo Leon over the last two months,
apparently resulting from a nationwide "truce" between the two
primary drug cartels. The truce has been described in press
reports, including detailed descriptions of the negotiations,
and our sources confirm these accounts. Apparently, the drug
cartels negotiated the truce because the drug war had become too
expensive and was bad for business. The crackdown by Mexican
federal forces may have also played a role. We cannot be sure
how long the truce will hold, and a recent spike in drug
violence could indicate that it is over. Post law enforcement
agencies believe that the drug cartels have used this time to
regroup and strengthen themselves, while state and local law
enforcement just breathed a sigh of relief. However, the
Mexican federal government and army have continued to mount
operations, and have had successes against the Gulf Cartel.


2. (SBU) The number of drug executions in Nuevo Leon has
substantially decreased in the last two months. There were 75
drug-related executions in the first five months of 2007, or an
average of 15 per month. There were also eight killings in the
first half of June, but here have been only three drug
executions from June 19 to August 16, although two of them were
policemen. Meanwhile, the number of kidnappings has continued
apace, with 58 kidnappings through May, or 11 per month, and
there were 14 kidnappings in June, July and the first half of
August. Generally, kidnappings here are narco-related (i.e.,
settling of accounts). Some of the victims are released in a
few hours, while other are never seen again.


3. (C) However, violence has surged again since August 17, when
two Mexico federal AFI agents (the equivalent of the FBI) were
kidnapped on duty, and they were later found dead, bound, naked,
and gagged, having died of asphyxiation. The AFI agents were
part of a special anti-kidnapping investigative unit. On August
20, three transit police were kidnapped, and two of them were
found alive on August 22, but gagged and beaten, and are now
recovering in the hospital. The third policeman has not been
found. In addition, on August 22, two carloads of heavily armed
men entered a police jail in the Monterrey suburb of San Nicolas
and forced the policemen (who did not fight back) to open a cell
and hand over a prisoner, who was executed shortly thereafter.
The brazenness of this assault speaks volumes about how local
police are intimidated.


4. (C) Post law enforcement agencies agree that the primary
motivation for the truce was that the drug war was expensive and
bad for business, since the drug cartels had to hire hit men,
increase their own security, and risk losing drug shipments.
Post agencies agree that the truce was not caused by pressure
from state and local police forces, since they have not solved
any of the drug execution cases. Indeed, we have heard reports
of drug cartels directly communicating with apparently honest
local police, indicating some level of official tolerance of
narcotics trafficking activity.


5. (C) However, there has been increase pressure on the Gulf
Cartel from the Mexican federal government and Mexican military,
which could have encouraged the drug cartels to close ranks
against pressure from the Mexican federal government. The
police have arrested several low-level components of the Gulf
Cartel, including 10 taxi drivers who acted as lookouts in June
(see Reftel A),and 14 members of "los Halcones" in July, who
offered security to the drug cartel (see Reftel B). In
addition, DEA and the Mexican federal police mounted a joint
Operation Puma in August which captured 32 Gulf Cartel
operatives in Texas, along with 2.6 tons of cocaine, 15.9 tons
of marijuana, and $5.5 million in cash. Operation Puma also
launched raids in Mexico, but the targets had been forewarned
and fled before the raids began. Mexican law enforcement
officials have not had similar success in Nuevo Leon against the
Sinaloa cartel.


6. (C) Post believes that there is no way to predict how long
the truce will hold. Previously there was a Christmas truce in
2006, but the cartels ramped-up the executions once the holiday
season was over. Although the truce apparently has no time
limit, it could be broken at any time, by a lost shipment, a
feud that spins out of control, or one cartel thinking that the
other is vulnerable and moving to take away some lucrative drug
shipping routes. The recent rash of violence could indicate the
truce is breaking down, but that is not likely to be certain

MONTERREY 00000800 002 OF 002


unless full-scale violence resumes.


7. (C) COMMENT. Although the truce has been a relief for Nuevo
Leon, it has not helped the war on drugs. The truce is a boon
for Monterrey's image and its economy. Monterrey has been able
to maintain robust investment (see Reftel C),but over the long
run, the narco-violence was damaging Nuevo Leon's image. If the
truce is maintained, Nuevo Leon could regain its image as a safe
place to invest. As to the drug war itself, although the drug
violence has claimed many casualties, including police officers,
it harmed the drug cartel organizations and provided targets of
opportunity for law enforcement officials to hit the cartels.
Post law enforcement agencies believe that the drug cartels are
using the opportunity to regroup and rearm, while the state and
local police forces are merely resting and are not substantially
strengthening themselves. We are more optimistic that the
Mexican federal police and military are continuing operations
and are preparing to continue confronting the drug cartels. END
COMMENT.
WILLIAMSON