NUEVO LEON PRD REJECTS PRESIDENT CALDERON AND SUPPORTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MONTERREY 000775

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SENSITIVE
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DEPARTMENT, PLEASE PASS TO USTR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ETRD ECON SOCI MX
SUBJECT: NUEVO LEON PRD REJECTS PRESIDENT CALDERON AND SUPPORTS
LEGITIMATE' PRESIDENT AMLO

REF: A. A) 2006 MONTERREY 963


B. B) 2006 MONTERREY 989

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1. (U) SUMMARY. Representing the hard-line faction of the
PRD, Nuevo Leon party leaders continue to reject President
Calderon as illegitimate, refuse to work with President
Calderon, plan to denounce Calderon at his September 1 State of
the Union address, and focus their efforts on recruiting local
representatives for the "legitimate government" of Andres Manuel
Lopez Obrador (AMLO),the losing PRD Presidential candidate in
the 2006 elections. The State Committee President, Socorro
Cesenas, sharply criticized Nuevo Leon Governor Natividad
Gonzalez as a self-interested, corrupt, and illegitimate
governor who has done little to alleviate rural poverty in the
state while spending millions of dollars on the upcoming
Universal Forum on Cultures. Cesenas was also critical of the
United States, and claims that AMLO will put a stop to the final
implementation of NAFTA in 2008. The PRD has little influence
in Nuevo Leon, and given the state's relative wealth and the
PRD's isolationist perspective, it is hard to imagine this PRD
party making much headway into Nuevo Leon. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) The PRI and PAN parties are both competitive in Nuevo
Leon elections, and normally the PRD is not a factor. However,
due to AMLO's popularity, the PRD received 16% of the vote in
the 2006 Presidential election, significantly ahead of the 8%
vote for PRD Senators and 9% for PRD Diputados. Although the
local PRD could have used the vote as a platform to build a
majority, they instead just denounced the 2006 elections, and
anecdotal evidence from average PRD voters in 2006 indicated
that they were turned-off by the PRD's demonstrations in Mexico
City and its refusal to accept the lost election. Poloff met
with the Nuevo Leon PRD President to determine if the PRD had
changed its stance.

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RECRUITING FOR THE "LEGITIMATE" GOVERNMENT
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3. (U) The local PRD remains trapped in July 2006 elections
results, and rather than deal with President Calderon, they
instead pursue AMLO's quixotic quest to be the "legitimate"
President. On August 7 Poloff met with Socorro Cesenas Chapa,
President of the Nuevo Leon PRD State Committee, who reported
that the local PRD party is stepping-up its efforts to recruit
state representatives for the "legitimate government" of Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). The local AMLO-government
representatives would serve the legitimate presidency by
fighting for social justice through monitoring local
municipalities' public spending. (Note. Cesenas has appeared
several times in local newspapers condemning the public debt
accrued by Monterrey's PAN Mayor Adalberto Madero. End Note.)
On August 9, local newspapers reported that Bernardo Batiz, the
former Attorney General of Mexico City, was visiting Monterrey
to encourage local citizens to officially ally themselves with
AMLO's alternative government. El Norte, Monterrey's leading
daily, reported that PRD officials expect that up to 14,000
residents of Nuevo Leon will sign up, and that some 28,000 will
be official AMLO-government representatives by 2009.
Registration stations have been set-up in ten of Nuevo Leon's
municipalities and will operate from August 9 through the
weekend ending August 12. To register, citizens must present
their electoral credentials, have their photos taken, and sign a
letter promising "to defend national sovereignty, to defend the
national heritage, and fight for better social justice and
redistribution of the nation's wealth." According to Cesenas,
the registration stations are being funded by "the bank account
set-up by AMLO's Cabinet." (Note. There is no evidence of such
a mass movement to support these claims. End Note.)

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CALDERON'S ILLEGITIMACY
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4. (U) When asked by Poloff about her party's views on
President Calderon's performance, Cesenas responded sharply that
she would not comment on the illegitimate President's time in
office, and proceeded to tell Poloff exactly how and why the
2006 Presidential election was a sham. She also said that the
PRD would not sit and listen to President Calderon's first
"informe" (state-of-the-union address equivalent) scheduled for
September 1 because it would be "imposed on us. If we want to
listen to an informe, we will listen to AMLO's." Cesenas said
that she was traveling to Mexico City on August 8 to meet with
other party leaders to discuss the new proposed format for the
President's annual address, which for the first-time would

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include a multi-party debate following the informe. Cesenas
said that the PRD would never agree to this, unless it gave them
the opportunity to denounce Calderon publicly as the
illegitimate President of Mexico. (Note. On August 9, local
newspapers reported that the PRD had agreed to the new
informe/debate format and that Juan Guerra, the PRD's
vice-coordinator in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies, was asking
his party to accept the agreement, not as a demonstration of
Calderon's legitimacy, but rather to look at it as an
opportunity to say that he is not the legitimate President of
Mexico. End note.)


5. (U) When asked whether the PRD would work with Calderon to
find a mutually-agreeable fiscal reform policy, Cesenas said
that the AMLO-alternative government (and likewise the PRD) has
its own neoliberal fiscal reform agenda that does not involve
expanding the value-added tax (IVA) base or creating a CETU-like
tax, but rather increases income taxes for the rich to
redistribute wealth to the poor. When asked how the AMLO
alternative government would propose redistributing wealth,
Cesenas responded with generalities, noting that the key is
creating more jobs and guaranteeing access to good education and
health care for all Mexican citizens.

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SHARP CRITICISM OF NUEVO LEON GOVERNMENT
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6. (U) In addition to PAN President Calderon, Cesenas also
sees PRI Nuevo Leon Governor Jose Natividad Gonzalez Paras as an
illegitimate and corrupt governor. Cesenas explained that she
believes that Nuevo Leon's 2003 gubernatorial election was
fraudulently conducted and that Monterrey's 2006 mayoral
election, won by PAN's Adalberto Madero, was fraudulent. When
asked if there were any recent elections results that she
supported, she pointed to the two Nuevo Leon municipalities in
which PRD candidates were "fairly" elected as mayors.


7. (U) Governor Gonzalez, she claims, has also done very
little to alleviate rural poverty in Nuevo Leon. Speaking
mainly of the two Nuevo Leon municipalities governed by PRD
mayors, Cesenas said that Gonzalez's government, in cahoots with
the PAN-lead state congress, cut rural municipalities' budgets
by upwards of 50%, effectively halting any real economic
development in those towns. Cesenas added that the Nuevo Leon
Secretary of Economic Development was not doing enough to

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attract investment and create jobs in the poorest parts of Nuevo
Leon. She also said that any illegal immigration to the U.S.
from rural parts of Nuevo Leon is due to the negligence of the
Gonzalez government because "if people don't believe that their
government is helping them, supporting them, and creating jobs
and schools and hospitals for them, they will leave."


8. (U) Cesenas also spoke about the Universal Forum of
Cultures, the Governor's pet project which will begin in
September. Cesenas said that, while she did not disagree in
principal with the idea of hosting a cultural forum to discuss
issues like diversity, peace, and environmental protection, she
thought that Nuevo Leon had higher priorities. She delighted in
the fact that the controversy surrounding the Forum and its
financing has damaged the Governor's credibility and popularity.

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THE EVIL U.S. EMPIRE
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9. (U) The problem with the United States, claimed Cesenas, is
that the U.S. is too self-interested and that the Calderon
government is too weak to stand up to the USG. Further, she
claims that the AMLO-alternative government will not allow the
final provisions of NAFTA to go through in 2008, when tariffs on
corn and beans are phased out, because poor Mexican farmers will
be devastated. When questioned by Poloff about exactly how this
would happen, Cesenas did not have an answer, and merely said
that NAFTA needed to be completely renegotiated with the United
States.


10. (U) Cesenas also spoke about the remittances that come
into Mexico from legal and illegal workers in the U.S. She said
that the workers are abused in the U.S. and that the United
States doesn't care, so long as its produce is picked on time.
The only one who cares about this issue, she claims, is AMLO,
whose government is working to create jobs so that Mexicans
don't have to leave their homes to go find work in a country
that treats them badly. Cesenas said that the AMLO alternative

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government will not ally itself with a country like the United
States that does not believe in peace, justice, and prosperity.
Cesenas told Poloff not to be surprised by upcoming protests
staged by the Nuevo Leon PRD Committee against the United
States, especially where NAFTA, immigration and the U.S.-led war
in Iraq are concerned.

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COMMENT
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11. (SBU) COMMENT. Since PRD could barely offer token
demonstrations in the aftermath of the controversial 2006
elections (see reftels),it seems very unlikely that they can
actually recruit local representatives for the "legitimate"
President AMLO or hold the planned demonstrations. The real
question is why the PRD has chosen such a hardliner to represent
them in a moderate state, undermining any possibility for the
PRD to make lasting political gains. The interview also
provides a window into the hard-line PRD mindset, and the
difficulties that the national PRD party may have bringing along
all its members to a constructive relationship with President
Calderon. END COMMENT.
WILLIAMSON