LUKASHENKO FOR PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000199

SIPDIS

KYIV ALSO FOR USAID
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PHUM BO RS
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO FOR PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA?


Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (d).

Summary
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1. (SBU) In late February, relatively unknown Moscow artist
turned political activist Aleksandr Kanurin announced a
movement to nominate Belarusian President Lukashenko as a
candidate for the 2008 Russian presidential elections. The
movement's website solicits people to register their names
and remarks in support of Lukashenko's nomination. In an
obvious and ridiculous smear campaign, Belarusian opposition
leaders, critics of the regime who have long passed away, and
members of Lukashenko's circle allegedly registered their
support. Included in the website are anti-Western news
articles, jokes mocking the Belarusian opposition, and
dramatic photos and portraits of Lukashenko. We agree with
local analysts' assessment that Lukashenko is probably
funding the campaign to irritate Putin and to increase his
popular support at home. Regardless of his motives, no one
here is taking the movement seriously. End summary.

"Batka For President"
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2. (SBU) The Belarusian version of Russian newspaper
Komsomolskaya Pravda (KP) on February 28 announced that a new
website, www.lukashenko2008.ru, appeared on the Russian web
portal seeking Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko's
nomination as a candidate for the 2008 Russian presidential
elections. Titled "The People's Movement: Lukashenko 2008,"
the site asks Lukashenko supporters to register their names
on a petition seeking Lukashenko's nomination to run for
president of Russia. Creator of the movement -
self-proclaimed Moscow artist Aleksey Kanurin -- called
Lukashenko the "only real alternative" to improving the
Russian way of life, noting in a February 28 interview with
KP that Belarusians lived well because they did not sell
their economy to the West. (Note: Kanurin also admitted that
he had never visited Belarus. End note.) Kanurin claimed
Lukashenko was not consulted, because he wanted to first
create the necessary conditions in Russia (hinting at a
change in the constitution) that would al
low Lukashenko to choose whether he wants to participate or
not.

Belarus: The Center of Russian Civilization
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3. (SBU) At first glance, the website seems well financed.
Aside from portraits of Lukashenko as a knight and edited
photographs of the President that are reminiscent of Don
Corleone, the home page contains a news, contact, and humor
section containing propaganda similar to that produced by
Lukashenko's state media. Claiming to be the only source of
"independent" media, the language of the articles proves to
the contrary:

--"Today, Belarus is the center of Russian civilization;"
--"The Belarusian opposition (opposition for dollars) arrived
to their masters across the ocean to get their wages and
instructions;"
--"Dark forces are strengthening pressure on the last
independent country in Europe (Belarus)."


4. (SBU) The humor section displays cartoons of de facto
coalition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich being kissed on the
cheek by U.S. President Bush, as a marionette doll dancing
for money, and as Dr. Howell from Gilligan's Island. The
face of Leonid Poznyak, leader in exile of the Conservative
Christian Party of the Belarusian National Front, is pasted
into the images of rapper Eminem and Superman.

Support Batka For President
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5. (SBU) By March 2, approximately 700 people allegedly
registered on the website their support for Lukashenko's
nomination, including Vasiliy Bykov, the famous Belarusian
poet and critic of Lukashenko who passed away in 2003.
According to the register, on February 24, 2007 the late
Bykov entered his name and stressed that Lukashenko would
revive and strengthen Belarusian art, literature, and
culture; "For the people's president!" Equally outlandish,
ardent Belarusian opposition leaders and activists supposedly
gave their support. On February 25, for example, jailed
leader of the opposition youth movement Maladiy Front Pavel
Severinets allegedly wrote on the site's message board that

MINSK 00000199 002 OF 002


Lukashenko had the best policy on the youth and, if elected
as Russian president, would revive patriotism and protect
children from the destructive influences of pro-American
organizations, such as Maladiy Front. Other opposition
activists who allegedly signed the register include United
Civic Party (UCP) leader Anatoliy Lebe
dko, Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC) leader Sergey
Kalyakin, and independent economist and outspoken Lukashenko
critic Stanislav Bogdankevich. Members of Lukashenko's
circle also allegedly stated their support, including Central
Election Committee Head Lidiya Yermoshina and Former Minister
of Sports and Tourism Yuriy Sivakov.

Luka Wants Ratings Boost
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6. (C) Belarusian political analysts including Vladimir
Podgol and Valeriy Karbalevich have told us that Lukashenko
was likely financing the movement, not to seek the Russian
presidency (as he knows President Putin would not allow it),
but simply to annoy Putin and to increase his domestic
popularity. Podgol reasoned that if the Kremlin takes
measures to ensure the movement does not materialize,
Lukashenko would use his domestic state propaganda to make
himself look like a strong leader falling victim to Russian
aggression, as the Kremlin is allegedly "frightened" of his
popularity in Russia. Consequently, Podgol explained,
Lukashenko's domestic ratings would dramatically increase.


Comment
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7. (C) Nobody here, including post, takes the movement
seriously. The Belarusian state media, the primary source of
information for Belarusians, has not mentioned its existence
and director Kanurin is, according to U.S. Embassy Moscow's
sources, a political nobody in Russia. It is likely that
Lukashenko is funding the site, but his motivations, other
than to annoy Putin, are unclear. The tacky artwork, fire
and brimstone articles, and the "support" from sworn
Lukashenko enemies, alive and dead, further demonstrate the
absurdity of the campaign.
Stewart